Sunday 1pm ESPN

This two mile tri-oval has provided some great drama in recent years. This weekend shouldn’t be any different. Greg Biffle won here in June with a max points day after Jimmie Johnson had a rather wild day. This week Joey Logs set a track record and will start from the pole position. One of the contenders wrecked in practice and will start from the rear, keep reading to find out who.

Stay Away From:

Jimmie Johnson 3-1

Ya I know what you’re thinking, stay away from Jimmie Johnson? Every week he finds his way into at least the Best Bets section of this column because he is simply that good. Now normally when the #48 team heads to a track they haven’t previously won at I would jump at the opportunity to bet him just based on the fact that they are so good. The odds of them not winning at the same place so many times is astronomical. But at Michigan has been a mystery to Johnson. He probably should have won at least once here in the past but for whatever reason he is constantly faced with bad luck here. In June he blew a tire late allowing Biffle to cruise to a victory.

This week the bad luck streak continues. He was the fastest car in the first practice, third in the second and first in the third. He qualified 3rd but before the close of the third practice Johnson wrecked. The wreck was bad enough to force him into a backup car which means he will start from the tail of the field. Yes he is probably the fastest here this weekend but with his history of bad luck here and with it already surfacing this week, 3-1 just isn’t enough value to bet him to win.

Brad Keselowski 14-1

Another rather disappointing finish to the race at the Glen for the blue deuce. While he needs the points to secure a Chase spot it must be painful to finish 2nd in a race you have never won three straight years. Especially since there is only one stop there per year. While he seemingly has value the way last weeks race ended makes me think he is just trying to make The Chase on points. He had a chance to bump Kyle out of the way and cruise to a victory but chose the safe route by racing him clean and not taking a chance that could have resulted in him dropping about 25 positions on the final lap. That kind of safe racing is not what you want out of a guy you are betting to win the race.

Clint Bowyer 20-1

This #15 team has frustrated me lately. For some reason they are still concerned with locking up a spot in The Chase despite having a firm hold on 2nd place in the standings for a few weeks. He’s over 100 points in the clear of 11th place yet is still points racing despite not having any wins/bonus points for The Chase. Their strategy is to lock up that spot in The Chase before they head to Richmond. Clint has been notoriously good at Richmond so they want to not have to worry about points and just unleash him in that race. However that means they are putting all their eggs in that Richmond basket. I have seen this movie before. This ends with him wrecking early in the Richmond race then heading into The Chase with zero momentum and fizzling out. I’m not sure you can win a championship being this cautious, just ask Carl Edwards.

Best Bets:

Carl Edwards 14-1

Carl has had a bit of a tough week thus far but being 3rd in points with a win under his belt he should be anything but a cautious driver this week. While he hasn’t been especially fast this week and qualified back in 19th (will start 17th thanks to #48 and #88) Carl has the best average finish here among active drivers with an average finish of 8.22, he has even won here twice before. The only problem with betting Carl is that he seems to have lost his winning ways. Believe it or not back in 2008 Carl won nine times. Since then he has been to victory lane just four times and just once since Tony Stewart ruined him in 2011. He has been very consistent but not very aggressive since that nine win season. 14-1 is great value for a two time Michigan winner with the best average finish at this track but I can’t pull the trigger on making him my official pick.

Ryan Newman 33-1

Ever since learning he would not be back with SHR next season at Loudon, Ryan has been phenomenal. Stewart going down paired with Ryan’s great racing has now put him into the second wild card slot. He has won at the Brickyard, finished 4th at Pocono and 14th at Watkins Glen since Loudon. Toss in the fact that he is a two time winner at Michigan and those 33-1 odds look rather juicy.

Best Value Bets:

Juan Pablo Montoya (OTB)

JPM’s odds will be updated once a sportsbook decides to post the full race odds. Like Newman, Montoya was just informed he would not be back with his current team next season. After a disappointing finish last week Montoya heads to Michigan as a lame duck driver. Odds are he will wreck out in incredible fashion but Juan is still a really good driver capable of winning. Now he needs to win to find a new job next year and will be even more aggressive than he has been in the past. I envision him getting quite a bit of TV time, if ESPN decides to show us the race instead of commercials, mostly thanks to spectacular wrecks. But this week Juan is going to have himself a nice race. Maybe he wrecks late but he will be in the hunt for grabbing his first win at this track. I don’t even need to know his odds to know that he is a great value bet this week.

My Pick:

Kevin Harvick 17-1

Happy finished 2nd here in June and won this race back in 2010. He is inside the top 10 in average finish and will start 13th this Sunday. He has been fast this week, 7th fastest in the first practice, the fastest in the 2nd and 11th in final practice. With Tony Stewart going down with a broken leg someone needs to pick up the slack for SHR even if it means a guy currently on another team going to victory lane. As Harvick often does, he probably won’t lead the most laps. He may not lead a lap until the last one. But he will close this one out and win this race.

mlz

Saturday, August 17, 2013