Sunday 1pm on TNT

This weekend in Michigan will without a doubt have a shadow cast over it from the loss of Jason Leffler. The drivers will be paying tribute to him with a decal on their car (picture above). I don’t mean to make it sound like I am pushing this aside but there will be more on this tragedy tomorrow in “Remember...”. As far as the race this weekend we are in for a drag race. These Gen 6 cars are going to fly around this two mile D shaped oval. Carl Edwards and Kurt Busch will lead the field to the green flag where they are going to be pushing these cars to over 200mph before whipping them around these relatively flat corners.

Last year Dale Jr. ended a four year winless streak after making a four tire change while most of the cars around him took two. It proved to be the right call and we could see the same scenario played out this year. While this track can provide some of the best pure racing in the sport it’s size can lead to some long green flag runs where the drivers are really stretched out. Expect to see a few green flag stops but nothing like last week’s run at Pocono where we got 400 miles done in just 2 hours 46 minutes. That’s about as long as it takes to run a 200 mile Nationwide race. If my memory serves me correctly the first half of the race was done in under an hour. It wasn’t until the final 100 miles where the action really picked up.

Last week track position and fuel were the two most important things for each team. This week track position is as important, fuel may become a factor if the cars get stretched out at the right time but also this week tires will be much more important. As I mentioned last paragraph Dale Jr. won this race last year because he took four tires while everyone else took two. That’s the gamble most teams are going to have to make. Depending on what position you are pitting from we could see some guys choose to lose some speed but gain some track position. However that may be a top 5 move not a race winning move. If I am out in front when the caution waves late I will be coming for four fresh Goodyears.

This track has proven to be tough on the inexperienced drivers. Rarely will you see a surprise winner here. That happens to play perfectly into the 2013 trend that has seen just eight different drivers in victory lane. This has been a very top heavy year. Five drivers have found their way to victory lane more than once this year and I fully expect that trend to continue this weekend. That being said...

Stay Away’s:

Dale Jr 8-1

Sorry Jr. fans but he won this race last year. He hasn’t exactly had a career in which you can say he owns any particular track. He hasn’t won enough to think of him as a super threat even here. All the focus this weekend has/will be on Dale Jr. The hopes of his fans have sucked any value out of betting him. Don’t get me wrong he is absolutely capable of leaving Michigan as the winner but the fact that he has only one win his last 177 races and just two in his last 255 races. Also factor in that he has just two wins in 27 career races at Michigan and then try and tell me there is value in betting him with odds that say if they raced this thing eight times he will win at least once.

Joey Logano 40-1

Mark Martin 60-1

You may take a look at the starting grid or practice speeds and say wow what great value for Logano who is starting 6th and Mark Martin, a five time Michigan winner, who was in the top 6 in all three practice runs this week. I am here to tell you, you are wrong. Joey Logs has an average finish here of 19.63 and several guys gunning for him. I’m not saying this will be the week he gets dumped but it has to come sooner or later and I am not putting money on him while that’s still a possibility and certainly not when he has managed to take himself out of this race every year.

While Mark Martin has a great track record here he hasn’t won in the Sprint Cup series since competing for the title in 2009, his last full time season with Hendrick Motorsports. Not to take anything away from him he has proven himself as an all time great but the juggernaut that is Hendrick has made most drivers better than they really are. Besides 2009 when he won five times he hasn’t won since 2005 at Kansas. As I mentioned earlier he was fast in all three practices but his qualifying run wasn’t as impressive, he will start back in 22nd position. He can and should race his way into the top 10 but he isn’t going to win this race. I hate to say he’s too old but at this point his final Sprint Cup win may have already happened.

Best Bets:

Jimmie Johnson 4-1

Those who read this weekly know of The Jimmie Johnson rule. It started with me saying anytime he isn’t favored or higher than 8-1 odds to win any given race. Since it has turned into just bet him every week, regardless of what his odds are or where they are racing. That #48 team is so good they can win any/every week in a multitude of ways.

The next stat might scare you away though especially with just 4-1 odds but don’t stray from the plan of making money in the long run. In 22 career races at Michigan for Jimmie Johnson he has an average finish of 15.23 good for 12th among active drivers, just four top 5’s and ZERO wins. None. He has never won here and this week he starts back in 17th. Are you thinking about skipping over betting him this week yet?

Maybe you should second guess it, but let me remind you two weeks ago he spotted the field a lap in the first fuel run only to drive back and dominate the race only to give it away by jumping the restart. Last week he led 128 of 160 laps and cruised to his third win of the season. For the better part of the last two weeks he has been so much faster than everyone else it almost makes you wonder if the #48 team is cheating in some way. Maybe 4-1 is too low to bet a guy that has struggled so much at this track. But let me ask you this. Do you really expect the guy who won five straight titles and has won 63 times in 413 career races (15.25% of his races) to continue to go winless at this track? Maybe he doesn’t win this week but saying he is “due” is an extreme understatement. It is only a matter of time before he rattles off two or three in a row at MIchigan and it could begin this week.

Kasey Kahne 7-1

Kasey Kahne is a total wheelman. He is exactly the type of driver that typically wins at Michigan. Statistically this may not be his best track but he has won here in the past and he has also grabbed a top 5 seven times including five top 3 finishes. Again the odds aren’t great but he qualified third, had the fastest car in the first practice, sixth fastest in the second, and second fastest in the final practice which was the one that will replicate the actual race conditions the most. Last week he blew up early but the few weeks prior had been running pretty well. His finishes won’t show it but he has been fast. He was the fastest in Charlotte before Kevin Harvick decided to turn it on late and steal the win. Going along with the trend of repeat winners this year, Kahne did find his way to victory lane at Bristol and he may find himself there again becoming the 5th repeat winner this year.

Tony Stewart 12-1

Previous winner this year? Check. Historically great at this track? 5th best average finish of active drivers and one career win. So yah check. Running well as of late? 4th last week at Pocono, 1st at Dover the week before and 7th at Charlotte the week before that... check. Bad luck last time at this track? Early engine problems forced him to finish back in 32nd...check.

The weather is getting warmer which is typically when Smoke heats up and given the last few weeks it looks like his season is turning around. I hope you guys got in on his championship odds were 50-1 heading into Charlotte. He is now down to just 18-1 but still has great value since he still might race his way in on points and not lose his bonus points heading into The Chase. This week could net him three more potential bonus points while almost certainly locking up at least a wild card spot and there is even great value in him at 12-1 to win this week.  

Best Longshots:

Aric Almirola 100-1

This dude can race. He has never won in the Cup series so it is obviously unlikely he wins but that is why he is 100-1 longshot. However he is starting 5th and is talented enough to keep that #43 machine up front. At 100-1 all you can hope for is a chance at the end and he should provide at least that.

Danica Patrick 500-1

Call it a weird hunch. I just have a strange feeling she runs really well tomorrow and at 500-1 that’s worth a look. Stewart-Haas Racing has turned their season around the last few weeks and good momentum can create good moods and that can spread through the teams garage. 500-1 for a teammate on one of the hottest/most determined racing teams out there right now.

The Pick:

Carl Edwards 12-1

Carl has raced here just 17 times in his career but wasted no time perfecting it. He has an average starting position of just 21.1 which makes his average finish of 8.24, the best all time at Michigan, that much more impressive. He has won twice and finished in the top 5 NINE times in 17 races. Carl has even led in 11 of the 17 races he has run here and starting on the pole he should make that 12 of 18. He has ran every lap of every race here with the exception of his one finish outside the top 22 where he was forced out of the race due to an engine problem before returning 28 laps down to later finish 36th. That is the only blemish on his scorecard at Michigan.

This year Carl has quietly raced his way into 2nd place in the championship standings behind just Jimmie Johnson. This year he won back at Phoenix making him eligible to become another multiple winner this year and with that becoming a trend he may fall further and further behind Jimmie and others when The Chase starts and the bonus points for winning are handed out. He has finished outside the top 10 in each of the last three races. So not that he NEEDS to win this week but if he had captured the trophy back in 2011 he would have won himself a title. He knows better than anyone every point counts. Anything less than a win this week will disappoint Carl and that #99 team.

mlz

Saturday, June 15, 2013