Several weeks ago when Hamlin went down with that back injury I mentioned how much fun a bet on Denny Hamlin to win the championship would be. Since then he has only pushed himself further out of contention. Basically everyone close to NASCAR has come out and said he is 100% out of it, but I can’t help but think his season is still far from over. Sure the odds are long but when you can get him at 95-1 the value is there. There may not be many races left to get on the right side of The Chase cutoff, I personally don’t think he is out of it quite yet.

For those unfamiliar, in order to make The Chase a driver needs to drive his way into the top 10 in the points standings or by earning one of two wildcard spots awarded to the drivers with the most wins while being inside the top 20 in points. Hamlin sits 25th in points 127 points behind 20th with just seven races remaining in the regular season. Obviously to pull this off things are going to have to break just his way over the next seven weeks.

We know he isn’t going to drive his way back into the top 10 in points with just seven races remaining until The Chase but if you look at his history at the remaining races, it wouldn’t be that far fetched to see him finding his way in a wildcard spot.

He will need to catch the guys hovering around 20th place to get in. Going into The Brickyard Paul Menard, Ryan Newman and Joey Logano are tied for 18th-20th with Stenhouse Jr, Ambrose, Montoya and Mears in between them.

Working backwards, Mears has posted just one top 15 finish since California... the 5th race of the year. On top of that he has just four top 15’s all season. So ya, he shouldn’t stand in Hamlin’s way.

I think we all know Juan Pablo is a great driver but seems to be a total headcase. Trouble always seems to find him. Since finishing 2nd at Dover he has had finishes of 14th, 20th, 34th, 16th, 39th and 24th. Despite Watkins Glen being on the schedule I feel it’s safe to say he also won’t get in Hamlin’s way.

As far as Ambrose goes you can just read Juan Pablo Montoya’s paragraph and then factor in Ambrose has just two finishes in the single digits all season (7th and 8th).

Rookie Ricky Stenhouse doesn’t have the experience and he has his girlfriend trying to wreck him every week.

That takes us to the three way tie. All Hamlin needs is one of the Menard, Newman and Logs trio to drop over the next seven weeks. Menard has dropped like a rock since starting off the season strong. He might be good for some top 15’s but he hasn’t proven lately that he is a lock for the top 20. Odds are he will keep dropping. Newman has had some bad luck compounded with losing his job in 2014. The next seven races could end with seven dnf’s for the #39 team. And Joey Logs has a couple targets on his back paired with a spotty history at the next seven tracks.

If you look at the math alone he will need to make up more than 18 points per race on one of those three. That sounds like a lot but with all three trending down and Newman with possibly seven dnf’s coming that really isn’t THAT insurmountable. In order to do so he is going to start winning. So let’s look at the remaining schedule...

Hamlin hasn’t found a ton of success at the Brickyard with just one top 5 in seven career races but his crew chief, Darian Grubb, has found some. In five races as a crew chief Grubb has four top 10’s including two top 5’s. I know Hamlin needs wins but he isn’t going to win all seven. He just needs seven solid finishes. A top 5 or a top 10 with the right people having rough days will do it.

Next week we are off to Pocono where Denny has the second most career wins amongst active drivers with four. This is a race he is going to need to win to stay alive.

Then we are off to Watkins Glen for some road racing. Denny is a really underrated road course racer. This isn’t a race you would expect him to win but he has run well plenty of times and ended up with some bad luck. He is more than capable of leaving with a top 5.

Next up, Michigan. Two things benefit Denny here. A. He has two wins at this track and is one of the best in the world on a flat track. B. Jimmie Johnson is notoriously unlucky here.

At Bristol and then Atlanta Hamlin is a former winner and among the active leaders in laps led at both tracks.

Which takes us to Richmond a place he has absolutely dominated. Only Kyle Busch has a better average finish here.

So by my count he has a legit chance to win five of the seven races. Of course I don’t think he will win five of the next seven but if he can win at Pocono and then one of either Michigan, Bristol or Atlanta he will be in position to win at Richmond and get into The Chase.

I know it feels impossible but Denny is one of the most talented guys in the game and he has a crew chief that had his back against the wall before and won a championship. Hamlin has what it takes to get himself back into contention but he is going to need to win three of the next seven. Maybe I am crazy but at 95-1 I am absolutely in and convinced we will see “the impossible” happen.

PS. I want to apologize for the lack of a piece focused around the Eldora race this past Wednesday. Our website’s host was down for the entire day Tuesday then I went to work Wednesday and to my golf league. Assuming I would be home in time for Eldora I figured I’d write a recap of it. That is until a perfectly timed distraction paired with a few BL’s and the right amount of stupidity ended up with me trying to break into my own car after locking my keys in the trunk. Yep, I know, I am an idiot. I missed the entire race but I watched some of the highlights and enough recap to say that was a hell of a cool experience that needs to be expanded upon, just not too much. From the four wide start to seeing guys used to driving 200mph with grip to driving 100mph with absolutely zero grip, was stunning and fun as hell. I would love to see NASCAR expand upon not only the dirt track aspect of it but the mid week race aspect as well.

mlz

Friday, July 26, 2013