NASCAR sure didn’t waste time getting to the ridiculously named races this season. This weekend the Cup and Nationwide Series races’ are a mouthful. The full Cup race name is “The Profit on CNBC 500, Presented by Small Business Fueling America”, while the Nationwide race is titled “Blue Jeans Go Green 200 presented by Cotton, The Fabric of Our Lives”.

Now that Dale Jr. appreciation week is over, we get back to the track at Phoenix for this one mile flat track. We should see a lot of green flag laps logged and a lot of spread out racing. Two active drivers have won at Phoenix four times a piece and just might come up once again later on.

 

Stay Away From

Dale Jr 10-1

What a great win for Jr nation last weekend. Unfortunately for this weekend, there is no following that up. While Jr has won at Phoenix twice in the past, he also averages a finish outside the top 17. Expect a hangover week from that #88 team and maybe a little complacency the next few weeks since they have all but locked up a spot in the Chase.

Tony Stewart 12-1

Another disappointing Daytona 500 for Smoke. Car troubles just never gave him a chance to go for it. Now this week he will continue to rehab that leg and it just doesn’t seem likely for him to win this race. He still isn’t 100%, he is coming off a very disappointing weekend at Daytona, and he traditionally doesn’t race his best until the weather starts warming up.

Best Bets

Kyle Busch 7-1

Kyle is good at Phoenix. While he hasn’t posted the finishes he would have liked to (only 1 win and 3 top 5’s in 18 starts) he has led more laps at Phoenix than anyone not named Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, or Kurt Busch, among active drivers. This week he will look to erase some bad memories at this place. He is starting 7th and should be a factor throughout the race.

Kevin Harvick 8-1

Harvick, is one of two active drivers to win here four times. He has obviously enjoyed great success at this place and now with SHR he has his best opportunity to get back to his winning ways. While he hasn’t won the early race here since 2006, he has won the November race here each of the last two years. Happy, knows his way around this place as well as anyone and he should be a factor starting 13th here tomorrow.

Kurt Busch 12-1

Only Jimmie Johnson can say they have led more laps at Phoenix than Kurt Busch. However, like his brother he has not been able to post the finishes he would have liked to. He has won here just once, back in 2005, but now he is back on a powerhouse team and has his best chance to win once again. Starting inside the top 10 at 12-1 is an absolute steal for a guy looking to once again prove he is among the best drivers on the planet.

Best Value Bets

Brad Keselowski 8-1

Brad hasn’t exactly enjoyed great success here and 8-1 feels a bit short, but he is on the pole and looking to recreate the magic from his championship season in 2012. In nine starts he has never won here and has posted an average finish of just 17.11, but he is still getting better and you get the sense that he really wants it. That to me merits a look even at just 8-1.

Jeff Gordon 12-1

It feels to me like people are forgetting about this #24 team. However he is a two time winner at this racetrack and holds the third best average finish among active drivers. He may be starting in the middle of the pack but you know he isn’t happy with his finishes the past few years. He wants to get back to contending for championships and to do so he needs to start winning again. This is a good track for him and he might be able to get on the right track this weekend.

My Pick

Jimmie Johnson 5-1

How could I pick anyone else? He didn’t win at Daytona so he is already due. In 21 career races at Phoenix he has posted top 5 finishes 14 times including four wins, good for an average finish of 6.29. In fact he has only finished outside the top 20 once and has never posted a DNF at Phoenix. He is the cream of the crop. In nine fewer starts he has led nearly 500 more laps than Jeff Gordon has at this track. In fact he has almost twice as many laps led here than any other driver. He is the favorite and he is starting in row 2 and he has to be the pick to win this week.

mlz

Saturday, March 1, 2014