Finally it’s time to get in gear for the Daytona 500. Let’s get to the good stuff since I have to make some calls, place some bets, and figure out what’s for eats before the drop of the green flag. I’m excited as hell and just want this to get started.

 

Stay Away From

Dale Jr 8-1

Of course Junior is one of the best in the business at these restrictor plate races. However the fact that only Matt Kenseth has shorter odds makes him a stay away. He doesn’t win nearly enough races to take him without getting any value.

Denny Hamlin 9-1

Denny is on too good of a run. These races at Daytona and Talladega can be a crap shoot so winning three straight is next to impossible. Nobody has ever won the Unlimited, their duel, and the 500 in the same week and I’m not about to bet that it will happen for the first time ever today at 9-1, it’s just not logical.

Best Bets

Matt Kenseth 7-1

He is the favorite and for good reason. He has proven to be arguably the best in NASCAR on these kinds of tracks. Of course there are a few guys that would argue that, but even at 7-1 he is worth taking a shot on. At the very least you will have a guy with a shot to win it at the end.

Kevin Harvick 10-1

Harvick loves to close and this is the kind of track to do it on. He has won here twice and has the 5th best average finish among active drivers. Look for him to hang around towards the back before making his move to the front later on in the race.

Best Value Bets

Jimmie Johnson 9-1

If Jimmie Johnson is any higher than 6-1 you must take him, nevermind all the way up to 9-1. He won this thing last year and has the best mind in restrictor plate racing as his crew chief.

Greg Biffle 25-1

Granted the Biff seemed to succeed more at these tracks when he was still a teammate of Matt Kenseth, but he still knows how to drive up front at Daytona. He is a former winner and an absolute steal at 25-1.

Jamie McMurray 100-1

Here is the best bet you might see all season long. He is a two time Daytona winner and seems to always find his way to the front at some point. Maybe he’ll wreck, but he will give you a legit shot at winning as a 100-1 long shot. Especially with the potential rain in the forecast, Jamie Mac is a real threat today.

My Pick

Tony Stewart 12-1

The return of Smoke. He is without a doubt the best driver at Daytona to have never won the 500. Odds are he has to win one eventually, why not in his triumphant return to NASCAR after missing half of last season with a broken leg?

mlz

Sunday, February 23, 2014