Raiders +3.5 vs Dolphins (In London)

AP3 - Raiders

 

 

Upset Alert!

Prediction, Oakland doesn’t win a game on U.S. soil this year. I really hate both of these teams, but I think that this week could mark the end for Regis Philbin and Tannehill at the same time. It’s the definition of a must win for the Dolphins, and I don’t think they have a chance.

Big Country - Dophins

It's still the Raiders

 

MLZ - Dolphins 

Here you go England, break out the tea and crumpets and get wild for this barnburner between the Raiders and the Dolphins. Fortunately for the Dolphins the Raiders suck, despite hanging with the Patriots last week in New England but with two east coast trips and now a trip across the Atlantic Ocean makes for far too much travel in the first four weeks to have your legs under your for 60 minutes. The Dolphins will find a way to make this game close but ultimately win this one easily according to the scoreboard. 

Bears +1.5 vs Packers

 

AP3 - Bears

 

WTF Alert? (lock alert)

Someone needs to explain this line to me. The Packers have been nothing short of awful this year, and the Bears have looked halfway decent since a loss against Buffalo at home week one. The Bears defense will borderline Ray Rice poor Aaron Rodgers this weekend.

 

Big Country - Bears

The Packers O-line would have trouble blocking me

MLZ - Bears 

What the hell is going on? Why are the Bears home dogs against the Packers? Correct me if I'm wrong but the Packers have looked lost in all three of their games while only coming up victorious at home against the Jets. Meanwhile the Bears are coming off of back to back road wins including what seemed like it could have been an obvious let down game last week against the Jets after coming back against the 49ers on national television. I do believe the Packers are better than what we have seen and I know the Bears find ways to lose games but there is no reason for the Bears to be home dogs in this rivalry game. There is just way too much value on the Bears here to go against them. 

Texans -3 vs Bills 

 

AP3 - Texans

Let’s call this they Ryan Fitzpatrick revenge game, you know if Fitzpatrick was out for vengeance from 2012. 

 

 

Big Country - Texans

 I think the defense gives EJ Manuel fits... Still don't believe in EJ.

 

 

 

Colts -7.5 vs Titans 

 

AP3 - Titans

I love the Colts this week. I love them so much that I took them as my eliminator pick this week. Therefore Tennessee will keep it close. 

Big Country - Colts

Andrew Luck beats bad teams

 

MLZ - Titans 

I'm not sure what the Titans really are at this point. Week 1 they went into Arrowhead Stadium and beat a healthy Chiefs team 26-10. Week 2 they lost at home to the Cowboys by the same score. Last week they got smushed @ Cincy 33-7. So we don't think the Chiefs are good but they certainly aren't bad, especially in week 1 when they were healthy. The Cowboys are better than people think and I certainly expected the outcome in week 2. While that asswhooping they got handed by Bengals might speak more towards how good the Bengals are instead of how bad the Titans are. On the flipside do we really know what the Colts are at this point either? We know they don't quit but we don't know that Luck is going to lead them to the win. The Colts should have beat the Eagles in week 2 and the fact that they didn't really speaks volumes to me. I could really see any scenario playing out in this game outside of the Titans routing the Colts from soup to nuts. I'm going to settle on a close game in which the Titans may even have the lead for most of the meat of the game before the Colts pull away at the end. Regardless laying two scores is a frigen silly move especially since 72% of gamblers are doing just that. 

 

Ravens -3.5 vs Panthers 

 

AP3 - Panthers

In the most overrated/most likely to be boring and bad football game of the week, I’m taking the team that was embarrassed by the Steelers on national TV over the team that was almost embarrassed by the Browns.

Big Country - Ravens

Steve Smith gets revenge

MLZ - Panthers 

UPSET ALERT 

 

Week 4 is such a tough place to pick given we are at point in the season in which we haven't seen enough to know what is meaningful and what was flukey. At this point we may have an idea but you can't be sure of really anything. For instance the Panthers cruised to a week 1 win @ Tampa Bay, who at the time was a supposed up and coming team, then rolled through Calvin Johnson and the Lions in week 2 who dismantled the Packers, whom are a road favorite over a Bears team that just won two road games in a row... slippery slope I know but it's just a weird place in the season in which it's difficult to figure things out, especially when you haven't had much internet access the past few weeks... but then I see the Panthers get trounced at home by the Steelers, who seemed as though their season was lost, on national television. On the flip side the Ravens hung with but lost to the Bengals at home, who may or may not be a contender, pulled away from the Steelers in a big way in the second half, and survived the @ Cleveland. According to the chaulk I should probably take the Ravens, but this season has been the exact opposite and I'm going to start getting ahead of that game now that I have the internet back. Panthers on the road in the Steve Smith bowl are going to win this game outright thanks to 210 yards from Kelvin Benjamin as Panthers fans watch the NASCAR race while using their old Steve Smith jerseys to light their grills. 

Jets +1.5 vs Lions

 

AP3 - Lions 

Lock Alert

Vegas has caught on to the Jets, if this was last season, or maybe even 2 weeks ago, the line is Detroit -7 (which is probably what it should be). The Jets can’t cover anyone and get penalized far too much. That being said they usually hang with teams. If you get this line at 3 or less for Detroit, jump on it.

 

 

Big Country - Lions

The Jets don't have a CB... Detroit has Calvin

 

MLZ - Jets

With any luck Geno will get stomped by Suh and we will get to see Vick in the game but regardless the Jets are winning this game for a few reasons. First off this season, like many others when you view it from a gamblers perspective, feels a bit backwards. The games that seem obvious end up costing you a lot of money. As an NFL gambler you really need to go week to week and not make your decisions based solely on what happened last week, or how you feel about a team. Not having internet, yes I'm using that as an excuse, has made me fall into a crevice in which I just looked at games and went ah that's easy, and my record this season proves it. Look at last night the Giants have looked awful and then suddenly explode two weeks in a row. That's because they were so bad in the first two weeks that is lowered my opinion about them when I shouldn't have allowed it to. This game is exactly that. While part of me is asking why are the Jets getting so much respect, like why were they favored over the Bears and why did oddsmakers have their game against the Packers lined up so close. But the fact remains that the Lions beat a Giants team that hadn't figured out their new offense in week 1, got smushed by a great defense @ Carolina in week 2 and in week 3 beat up on a Packers team that might not be any good. I'm not saying the Jets are good by any stretch of the imagination but I'm siding with the 29% of people betting the Jets because this line seems so low that it's a trap. 

 

 

Steelers -7.5 vs Bucs

 

AP3 - Bucs

Never underrate extra rest (despite the fact that Tampa is clearly the worst team in the NFL, and starting a backup QB on the road, no big deal).

MLZ - Bucs 

 

Call me crazy but I may be the only person in the world that bets the Bucs this week. I have zero faith in them and I will probably regret it within the first five minutes of the game but there is an overreaction from people that is causing this line to move to two scores. The Bucs are in a must win position coming off of 10 days rest while the Steelers are coming off of a big win on Sunday night. While the Bucs are arguably the worst team in football the Steelers aren't exactly the '86 Bears, there's a rather good chance they don't end up making the playoffs. I might even toss a little on the Bucs +270 money line. 

 

 

Chargers -13 vs Jaguars 

 

AP3 - Jaguars

 

Upset Alert!

I BELIEVE IN BLAKE BORTLES! 

 

 

Big Country - Jaguars

 I believe in Blake Bortles (to cover)

 

MLZ - Chargers

I tried to give the Jags the benefit of the doubt early in the season and they have let me down. Look at the stats, the Jags have allowed the most passing yards and the most rushing yards while they have the 30th most rushing yards and 25th most passing yards. Don't forget that those offensive stats are especially bad given they have been coming from behind against soft coverages most of the season. In three weeks they have allowed 119 points or nearly an unheard of 40 points per contest. Now they travel across the country to face off against a Chargers team trying to prove themselves with legitimate Super Bowl hopes. 

 

 

49ers -5 vs Eagles

 

AP3 - Eagles

 

Upset Alert

The Eagles are hands down the most conditioned team in the NFL, and just happen to have that extra gear in the 4th quarter that no other team has. Along with that, they know how to score. The 49ers on the other hand, struggle to score points. I’m taking the Eagles in this one. 

Big Country - Eagles

The 49ers have yet another 2nd half collapse

 

MLZ - Eagles 

UPSET ALERT

Why are you even reading this right now? Just go bet the Eagles +200 to win this game before the line drops. Hurry go, run. 

If you just got back from betting the Eagles... good for you... the 49ers aren't a good football team right now. That Chip Kelly team is going to shake them up to the point where they may hit rock bottom. If the Eagles win this game 42-13, A. don't be surprised and B. don't overreact to it in the coming weeks because the 49ers will get their shit together eventually, just not this week they need to bottom out first. 

 

 

Vikings +3 vs Falcons

 

AP3 - Teddy Bridgewater

A lot of time off for the Falcons has them coming out rusty against a rookie who no one has really had a chance to see. I’m riding the rookies this week and Teddy B.  

 

 

Big Country - Falcons

 I doubt the Vikings can keep up with the Falcons high scoring offense.

 

 

MLZ - Falcons

Unforunately in this game the obvious pick seems like the right pick, which is always scary. I think Vegas is just counting on Teddy Bridges breaking out in a big way against a piss poor Falcons defense. Sure it's possible but isn't it far more likely that Julio Jones and company break out for 500+ yards leading to people underrating Bridges and the Vikings in weeks to come? This feels like it may be a play for the future from the oddsmakers. 

 

 

Cowboys +3 vs Saints

 

AP3 - Saints

 

Drew Brees in Prime Time > Tony Romo in Prime Time

 

Sean Payton > Jason Garrett in Prime Time

 

Therefore

New Orleans > Dallas in Prime Time  

 

 

Big Country - Saints

 

A last minute turnover by Tony Romo clinches this one.

 

MLZ - Cowboys  

 

Is this the first year in the history of the post merger NFL in which the Cowboys haven't been a public team? People seem to love betting against the Cowboys so much so that 62% of people are betting a Saints team, on the road, that lost to the Falcons and Browns. The Cowboys are much better than people think. I think they win this game by two scores when it's all said and done. 

 

 

Chiefs +3 vs Patriots 

 

AP3 - Patriots

Lots of heavy practice for the Patriots this week after looking pitiful in the first three weeks of the season. The Chiefs beat up the Dolphins last week, but they themselves are pretty beat up. I’m laying the points and keeping my trust in Tom Brady. 

Big Country - Chiefs

I'm going with the better QB... So far this season that's Smith

 

MLZ - Patriots 

I fully expect to lose or push this game. This Patriots team isn't anywhere close to the teams of years past that would take care of business when their back was against the wall. This year they can't protect Brady and they have zero weapons for Brady to get the ball to. Now they go into the hostile enviornment of Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night and attempt to get back to who they are. Their only hope is that their defense turns it up a notch and shuts the Chiefs down completely. As a Pats fan I won't lie I am very nervous about this game. If the Pats lose this game I don't know where I can turn my attention to with the Celtics/Sox being in shambles and Datsyuk being injured for the start of the NHL season since I can't stand the Bruins. My 2014 sports fandom is facing a big fork in the road this Monday night. That being said I still trust Brady and Belichick. Brady is going to be fired up to the point where he won't accept anything other than a touchdown on every offensive possession. At the very least it would be nice to see a couple long touchdown drives in which someone other than Edelman catches a pass. However look for Edelman to muff a punt which he comes close to doing on every single punt and the Chiefs to win. 

 

 

Year to date:

AP3 

26-21-2 Overall 

1-1 Upset Alert

0-3 Lock Alert

Big Country 

20-27-2 Overall

1-2 Upset Alert 

2-6-1 Lock Alert

MLZ 

19-28-2 Overall

0-1 Upset Alert

4-9-1 Lock Alert 

Saturday, September 27, 2014