NFL Pick'Em: Week 3, 2014

Bills -1 vs Chargers

AP3 - Chargers

Big Country - Chargers

This seems like a trap. I know SD is traveling cross country, but an underdog to EJ Manuel? Got to go with the Chargers.

MLZ - Bills

San Diego is going across the country after an emotional win over the defending champs to play a Bills team that is playing with more emotion and more grit than anyone in the league. The time change and big win over the last week will help contribute to the Bills continuing to fly high. Just be careful and don’t get too caught up in this run. Hopefully this isn’t the week they come back to reality.

Rams +1.5 vs Cowboys

AP3 - Cowboys

Big Country - Cowboys

LOCK ALERT

Everyone keeps telling me how much the Cowboys defense sucks but I have seen enough Rams football this year to question if they can score on UMASS. This Cowboys offense is just too good to not outscore the Rams, especially without Chris Long.

MLZ - Cowboys

LOCK ALERT

The Cowboys are only 4.5 point favorites over the Rams? Did they put Austin Davies on fast reacting HGH this past week? I don’t understand this line at all and wouldn’t take the Rams if they were +14. Without Chris Long, Romo and Dez should light this turf up, don’t forget the Rams only beat the Bucs on the road last week not the Seahawks.

Eagles -7.5 vs Redskins

AP3 - Eagles

Big Country - Eagles

I don't like this game at all. When it comes down to it, I don't know if I trust Cousins yet, and think the high tempo Eagles offense shreds the Skins.

MLZ - Eagles

The Eagles are certainly, on average, more than a touchdown better than the Skins but who knows really knows with these NFC East games. This is a complete stay away for any gamblers out there.

Giants +2 vs Texans

AP3 - Texans

Big Country - Texans

LOCK ALERT

I believe in the Texans, and I do not believe in the Giants. The Texans defense has been solid thus far and I expect another strong performance against a miserable Giants offense.

MLZ - Texans

LOCK ALERT

Sure this feels like a trap, but then I remembered JJ Watt will be going up against the Giants offensive line and Eli Manning. Good luck Eli!

Saints -10.5 vs Vikings

AP3 - Saints

Big Country - Saints

The Saints are going to ROLL the Vikings this weekend. They are making their home debut, where they always play well, and are desperate to get there first win. I wouldn't be shocked of the Saints put up 50.

MLZ - Saints

I don’t love this bet simply because I have no idea if the Saints are actually good or not. This line would indicate that the general public still believes, or at least isn’t sure, but I won’t be one betting this game. That being said I’m taking the Saints because they need to win and are playing at home against an Adrian Peterson-less Vikings team. But I don’t trust the Saints at all right now. This just reeks of a backdoor cover.

Bengals -7.5 vs Titans

AP3 - Titans

Big Country - Titans

Stay away from this game. I have no clue. When in doubt take the points.

MLZ - Titans

Andy Dalton laying seven without AJ Green?

Browns +2 vs Ravens

AP3 - Ravens

Big Country - Ravens

Inter-division games in the NFC North are always competitive, but in the end I like the Ravens a little more. It comes down to QB. I like Flacco more than Hoyer, and after a big win last week I think we see the Browns come out a little flat.

MLZ - Ravens

Extra rest for a team that is coming off an emotional win, Ravens without question win this game and cover.

Lions -1 vs Packers

AP3 - Packers

Big Country - Lions

I will give Green Bay a pass on the Seattle game, but I can't give them a pass against the Jets. They looked pretty bad against Geno Smith, and I just don't think the defense can slow down this Detroit offense, which is the most skilled offense Green Bay has seen to date.

MLZ - Packers

LOCK ALERT

This is the first paycheck game of the year. Aaron Rodgers is going to give Matt Stafford the business once again. Packers ROLL 41-10.

Jaguars +7 vs Colts

AP3 - Colts

Big Country - Colts

I feel like Andrew Luck just crushes bad football teams.

MLZ - Jaguars

This just feels like too many points to lay on a team that can’t rush and can’t rush the pass, plus we may be nearing the Blake Bortles era.

Patriots -14.5 vs Raiders

AP3 - Raiders

Big Country - Patriots

Rookie QB flying cross country to face New England? I will give the points.

MLZ - Patriots

The Pats do typically struggle against teams they know they are going to crush at home, but they really need to crush the Raiders. Their offense has not clicked at all this season. Brady needs to get into a rhythm with these guys and he knows it.

Cardinals +3 vs 49ers

AP3 - 49ers

Big Country - 49ers

LOCK ALERT

Ellington is banged up and there is a good chance we see Drew Stanton. Even if Carson plays he won't be at full strength. They might not even score.

MLZ - Cardinals

Not only is Arizona going to cover but they are going to win this game outright, and it might not be close. The 49ers are not a great team this year while the Cardinals are very underrated. They don’t need a quarterback that can throw for 400 yards to win games because their defense and secondary especially, is fantastic. Kaepernick may just be headed for a meltdown and this Cards defense has the talent to force it.

Seahawks -5 vs Broncos

AP3 - Broncos

Big Country - Broncos

UPSET ALERT

Doesn't it just seem like a Peyton Manning game? Got his ass kicked in the Super Bowl, so comes out and wins a regular season game to "get revenge". Plus I like the Broncos O-line against a Seahawks D that, although still elite, is not as good as last year.

MLZ - Broncos

To me, straight up this game is a toss up. I could see Manning rolling over a banged up Seahawks defense coming off of a draining loss. I could also see the Seahawks being motivated by last week and creating a repeat of the Super Bowl. Most likely it will fall somewhere in between, which is why I’m taking the points and like Seattle to win by 3.

Dolphins -4 vs Chiefs

AP3 - Chiefs

Big Country - Chiefs

I just don't trust the Dolphins defense. I don't care if it's Knile Davis or Jamaal Charles, they are going to run wild on a depleted Dolphins LB core.

MLZ - Dolphins

The Chiefs are no longer a good team, maybe they are a bit underrated because of it, but they aren’t going to be winning games on the road. I think Miami wins this game by six in the end.

Panthers -3 vs Steelers

AP3 - Panthers

Big Country - Panthers

LOCK ALERT

Pittsburgh cannot stop the run at all, and haven't impressed me much offensively. On a side note based on my amount of locks this is either the easiest gambling week ever or I'm in for a loooong Sunday.

MLZ - Panthers

LOCK ALERT

How is Pittsburgh going to score in this game?

Jets -3 vs Bears

AP3 - Bears

Big Country - Bears

The banged up Bears WR core does scare me a bit, but I'm going to assume they play. If that's the case, they should win this pretty easily.

MLZ - Bears

LOCK ALERT

What the hell is going on? This can’t be because of the possibility of Marshall and Jeffrey sitting is it? I understand Cutler is a threat to throw nine picks in any given prime time game and they no longer have Hester to help Jay out, but in what world do the Bears not win by double digits?

Year to date:

AP3

17-14-1 Overall

1-1 Upset Alert

0-3 Lock Alert

Big Country

12-19-1 Overall

1-1 Upset Alert

1-3-1 Lock Alert

MLZ

14-17-1 Overall

0-1 Upset Alert

2-6-1 Lock Alert

Saturday, September 20, 2014