Falcons +3 vs Saints

AP3 - Saints

 

Lock Alert

Atlanta is not a good football team. Despite this being a rivalry, too much Drew Brees and that powerful Saints offense.

Big Country - Saints

 

LOCK ALERT

I'm a Falcons fan, so this hurts, but I don't think the defense is going to be able to slow down the Saints offense.  This is the best Saints defense in years, and they make some stops to give the Saints a double digit win.

 

MLZ - Saints

Lock Alert

Do people really have that much faith in the Falcons bouncing back? Would you rather have Matt Ryan or Matt Stafford as the QB of the team you bet on? It's a tough one, I think I'm going with Matt Ryan but that being said neither Matt is going to beat Drew Brees and the Saints. 

Rams -3 vs Vikings 

 

AP3 - Vikings

 

I'm not betting on a game where the starting qbs are Matt Cassel and Shaun Hill. But if I have to I'm taking the points.

Big Country - Vikings 

UPSET ALERT

I don't trust either of these QBs as far as I can throw them, but I do trust the playmakers on Minnesota to do enough to score on this Rams defense. Mike Zimmer is a good defensive coach, and I think he gets to Shaun Hill.

 

MLZ - Vikings 

This game boils down to just how bad is the Vikings defense going to be and who wins the battle between Adrian Peterson and that Rams defensive front. Scratch that, watch out for a big break out performance from Cordarrelle Patterson as the Vikings start the season off in the win column. 

Steelers -7 vs Browns

 

AP3 - Steelers

 

Everyone is down on the Steelers this year, but people forget that it's a contract year for Roethlisberger. Look for him and the Steelers to have a bounce back season.  

Big Country - Browns 

I have zero confidence in the Browns offense, but I do like there defense a lot.  I personally believe Joe Haden is the best corner in football, and if he can lock down Antonio Brown I could see the Steelers offense sputtering.  I don't think the Browns win, but I think it's a close game.

 

 

 

Eagles -10.5 vs Jags

 

AP3 - Jags 

 

This pick is just way too obvious right? Just feels too easy.  I don't trust it. I believe in Blake Bottle. What? Chad Henne is starting? Shit. Whatever I'll just add it to my list of losers this week.

Big Country - Jags

I wouldn't touch this game if I was in Vegas, but since I have to pick someone I'm going with the Jaguars. I think the a Eagles are just bad enough defensively for the Jaguars to keep it under 10.

 

 

MLZ - Jags

 

70% of people are laying double digit points in this game. The public loves the Eagles and that offensive scheme but the public doesn't win money look for a backdoor cover when they put Bortles in for the second half and he and Marqise Lee get acquainted on the field.

 

 

Jets -5 vs Raiders

 

AP3 - Jets 

 

Lock Alert

West coast team with a rookie qb on the east coast at 1PM against a strong run defense.  Not to mention that it's Oakland.

Big Country - Jets 

LOCK ALERT

Derek Carr may have a cannon for an arm, but he wasn't even that good in college.  Now he faces one of the best defensive coaches of all time and is going to see a lot of looks he has never seen before.  I think the Jets offense takes a leap forward this season and runs away with this game.

 

MLZ - Jets

Lock Alert

The Raiders are going to be the worst team in the NFL this year and it won't be close. The Jets have a chance to sneak into the playoffs and will need this one if they want to accomplish that. 

 

Ravens -1.5 vs Bengals

 

AP3 - Bengals

 

Too close to call here. Stay away or grab the points if you have to before you realize you wagered on Joe Flacco or Andy Dalton.

 

 

Big Country - Bengals 

 

This game is kind of a toss up for me.  When in doubt I tend to take the better defense.

 

 

MLZ - Ravens

 

This is going to be a low scoring brawl in which Andy Dalton starts making Bengals fans very nervous about that massive contract they just signed him to. I think the Ravens squeek this one out and have a nice bounce back season. 

 

 

Bears -6.5 vs Bills

 

AP3 - Bears

 

Lock Alert

Positives going for the Bills this week: They haven't lost yet?  Chicago rolls with their offense that may be top 5 in the NFL.

 

 

Big Country - Bears 

 

If you can't tell by our picks earlier this week, I am all in on Chicago.  I think they did enough to improve the defense, and Jay Cutler is healthy with a stud WR core and the most underrated running back in the NFL.  EJ Manual hasn't done anything to convince me he is going to be able to keep up.

 

 

MLZ - Bills

 

I know it's been several months since the last time you wagered on Jay Cutler, so your memory might be a little fuzzy but let me remind you that it is absolutely terrifying. Plus with 74% of the public betting on the Bears there are just too many red flags. Look for Cutler to struggle as the Bills manage to cover. 

 

 

Texans -3 vs Redskins

 

AP3 - Texans

 

Even money says that RG3 doesn't finish the game because Watt and Clowney broke him in half.

MLZ - Texans 

 

JJ Watt + Jadeveon Clowney = RG3 out for the season. 

 

 

Chiefs -3 vs Titans

 

AP3 - Titans

 

I was considering KC for my eliminator pick when I realize Tennessee knocked me out last year.  Fool me once...  Well you know..

 

 

Big Country - Titans

 

I don't believe in Kansas City.  I think they benefited from an easy schedule, and finish this year with 5-6 wins.  I don't believe in the defense, I don't believe in Alex Smith, and I especially don't believe in Andy Ried. The Titans have a sneaky good WR core, and count me as one of the few Jake Locker believers. 

 

 

MLZ - Titans

 

I really don't know what to expect from either of these teams. The Titans, at times, felt a little frisky last season and the Chiefs are the obvious regression team. In this matchup I wouldn't be shocked by really anything, unless Alex Smith throws for 500 yards and 5 touchdowns. I'll take the points and the team 72% of the public isn't betting on. 

 

 

Dolphins +3.5 vs Patriots

 

AP3 - Patriots

 

Lock Alert

Tom Brady hasn’t lost a season opener since 2003.

Big Country - Patriots 

Lock Alert

This game could very easily be a blow out.  The Patriots reloaded the defense, and take on an O-line that allowed 58 sacks last season. Oh, and their best offensive lineman is out.  There is nobody on the Dolphins offense that really scares me.

 

 

MLZ - Patriots

Lock Alert

 

The Phins were at there best last year when they were away from home and while they play the Pats tough, I'll take Tom Brady, even on one leg, all day. 

 

 

Bucs -2.5 vs Panthers

 

AP3 - Panthers

 

Look I think the Bucs are gonna be good this year, and I know the Panthers are really banged up and have a suspect offense at best, however I just don’t think we can anoint the Bucs as a contender just because Josh McCown is their starting QB.

 

 

Big Country - Bucs 

 

Am I really giving points with Josh McNown?  I feel dirty doing it.  But Cam Newton is banged up, has no weapons, and Ron Rivera as his head coach. So excuse my while I take a shower to get the filth off.

 

 

MLZ - Panthers

 

Lock Alert

 

What the hell is going on? The Panthers were arguably the 4th best team in the NFL last year now they are opening up as a dog against the Bucs? I know people are high on Tampa and down on Carolina but there's no fucking way Josh McCown and Doug Martin are going to succeed against that Panthers defense. 

 

 

Cowboys +4 vs 49ers 

 

AP3 - 49ers 

 

Over/Under 1.5 drives that the 49ers don’t score on? I love the under.

 

 

Big Country - 49ers 

 

I know that the 49ers defense isn't running at 100%, but they don't have to be.  They just have to get one stop, since I highly doubt Dallas will make a stop.  I'm pretty sure I could throw for 250 against the Cowboys, so the 49ers should have a field day.

 

 

MLZ - Cowboys

 

I like Dallas way more than most people and probably way more than I probably should. That being said this is a pick against the 49ers more than a pick for the Cowboys. I think the 49ers are going to struggle to find any rhythym offensively even against the putrid defense of the Cowboys while Romo and Dez should be able to do something against that mediocre 49ers secondary. 

 

 

Broncos -7.5 vs Colts

 

AP3 - Broncos

 

Lock Alert!

I don’t think that Peyton Manning will easily forget being embarrassed in the Super Bowl last year… Sorry Andrew Luck.

Big Country - Broncos 

Peyton Manning revenge game!  Peyton Manning revenge game! 

 

 

MLZ - Broncos

 

Lock Alert

 

Between being embarassed by the Seahawks in the Super Bowl and letting Andrew Luck beat him in his return to Indy, this is going to be one pissed off Peyton Manning. 

 

 

Lions -6.5 vs Giants

 

AP3 - Lions 

 

Thanks alot NFL, now we on the East coast have to sit through a garbage game to get to a game between two contenders.

MLZ - Giants 

 

The good news is we get to watch Calvin Johnson on national television. The bad news is we have to watch the rest of the Lions and Giants on national television. 

 

 

Cardinals -3 vs Chargers

 

AP3 - Chargers

 

I like the Chargers on the road because they feel like a complete offensive team while the Cardinals are not close to 100% on defense. When in doubt, ask yourself, “Do I really want to lay points with Carson Palmer on Monday Night Football?”

Big Country - Cardinals 

 

I really like the Cardinals this year.  I think they are one of the most talented teams in the league, and I want to see Phil Rivers do it another season before I believe he's truly back.  Patrick Peterson should shut down Keenan Allen, and I don't think another Charger steps up.

 

MLZ - Cardinals 

Lock Alert

So the Cardinals lose Andre Ellington and 55% of the bets being made are coming in on San Diego, yet the line hasn't budged. What's that smell? 

Year to date:

AP3 

0-1 Overall 

0-1 Upset Alert

Big Country 

0-1 Overall

MLZ 

0-1 Overall

0-1 Upset Alert

Saturday, September 6, 2014