One of the most fun things to do before a new NFL season is to sift through all the prop/future bets. I have picked out a few that I really like in this team props section. Stay tuned for a player props piece as well.

 

Division Winners

Dallas +620

Am I the only one that isn’t counting the Cowboys out this year? Sure they might go 2-14 but that division seems to have four teams hovering around .500 every single season. If DeMarco Murray can stay healthy the offense should be able to help out that putrid defensive group. They should be able to run the ball effectively to control the clock. Not to mention they still have one of the best wideouts in the game in Dez Bryant. Romo has made a history of choking in the big games but they have made it to those big games, and this year should be no different. They have the longest odds in the division mostly because of public perspective, at least in my opinion. +620 is great value for the Cowboys to take this division since it may be once again wide open.

Green Bay -135

Saints -170

Both of these feel like locks to me yet Vegas didn’t kill the value like they did with the Patriots and Broncos. I can’t imagine the Falcons, Bucs, or Panthers sneaking up on the Saints just like I can’t see Stafford, Cutler or Matt Cassel stealing their division away from Aaron Rodgers.

Seattle -160

Arizona +800

I am a bit down on the 49ers this year. I think they will still have a solid team but on the whole they seem weaker and not as deep on the defensive side of the ball. Plus I don’t totally trust Kaepernick. That being said the Seahawks have great value here and the Cardinals I think are going to be a bit of a surprise team; getting them at 8-1 is crazy to me.

Win Totals

Arizona over 7.5 (-160)

I can’t say I like the -160 but I don’t see any scenario in which they finish below .500. Bruce Arians really whipped this club into shape the second half of last season so they shouldn’t skip a beat early on this year. The defense for the Cards is going to be really solid and help them get closer to ten wins than they are to seven.

Dallas over 7.5 (+170)

Is 8-8 or 9-7 really that difficult to imagine from the Cowboys? Not to mention the added value in the +170 that you would be getting. Maybe they choke again late but I love this bet even if you have to sweat it out.

Detroit under 8.5 (-125)

There is absolutely no way the Lions get to nine wins unless Megatron goes for 3,000 yards; Matthew Stafford just won’t allow it.

Kansas City under 8.5 (-225)

When you lose depth in your defense, your offensive line looks like a piece of swiss cheese, you pay your unproven QB and your schedule gets a hell of a lot more difficult, you don’t replicate what you did last year. The Chiefs are set up to finish third in that division and that means they aren’t getting to nine wins.

Super Bowl

Seattle 6-1

The Seahawks deserve to be the favorite this year. They lost some depth on the defensive side, but barring injuries will still be the best unit in football. It may take some time to get some new guys accustomed so I think they may start off slow but they will kick it into gear when it matters. 6-1 feels like it may be the highest you will get them at although why not wait and see if the Packers can break that home field advantage on Thursday night and see if the Super Bowl hangover and the slow start does actually happen. However if you do you risk the Seahawks rolling over the Packers and the value dropping considerably.

New England 8-1

The Patriots are going to be there when it matters, just like they always are. As long as Tom Brady stays healthy, they have a shot. Of course to be really considered a Super Bowl contender they are going to need Rob Gronkowski to stay healthy for the entire season. Although even if he isn’t 8-1 is a nice number to grab for a Belichick/Brady team that just added Darrelle Revis in the offseason.

Green Bay 11-1

The Packers should bounce back nicely this year with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. Get them now because they are going to be looking to prove themselves in that opener against the Seahawks who could very well suffer from a Super Bowl hangover and if they do top the Seahawks 11-1 will be the best value you will get the Packers at all year.

Arizona 50-1

Dallas 90-1

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think either of these teams are going to win the Super Bowl but these are the two best value plays on the board as of now. Both of these teams have the potential to get to 10 wins and make the playoffs and that’s all you can really ask of from teams with this high of odds.

mlz

Monday, September 1, 2014