They just keep throwing shit at a wall hoping something will stick but when it’s all said and done they have Calvin Johnson and a good defensive line, that’s about it. They should score some points but they are going to get toasted by even the most incompetent quarterbacks out there. Johnson should start demanding a trade now, imagine how good he would be if he had someone like Brady throwing him the football. If Johnson and Stafford ever find themselves out to dinner Stafford better be picking up the check because he owes him a shitload of money for making him look good.

This year you should expect more of the same from the Lions. They will have games in which they compete in 40-37 contests but they will also put up a 10 spot when you bet the over in a matchup against the Packers. I can’t sit here and confidently say they will win seven games so I have them finishing up at 6-10 and hopefully a Calvin Johnson trade demand and holdout follows. Also a nice little hypothetical question… how many games would the Lions win if Calvin Johnson got hurt and missed the entire season? I have them at 2-14 this season if that were to happen and that’s probably being generous.

3. Minnesota Vikings (15-1)

The Vikings have a really interesting team in place. They could very well suck once again this year, but they seem intent on being better. They committed $37M worth of guaranteed money to defensive end Everson Griffen, defensive tackle Linval Joseph, and cornerback Captain Munnerlyn. But I’m not sure that’s enough of a makeover to overcome the fact that they allowed more points than any other team last season and that was when Jared Allen was still with the team.

The Vikings are going to need to be a lot better on the offensive side of the ball and they just might have the pieces in place to do so. If Teddy Bridgewater can step in and secure that starting job for Week 1 the Vikings offense could be a pleasant surprise. While Norv Turner is a horrible head coach, he is still capable of being a decent offensive coordinator, I think anyway. They seem to want to get Adrian Peterson more involved in the passing game to get him the ball in open space as opposed to almost solely coming out of the backfield. What should also help Peterson is the emergence of Cordarrelle Patterson who finished last season rather strong. They need to turn him loose and allow him to be a playmaker opposite Greg Jennings. Again if Teddy Bridgewater can be the guy who we once thought he might be, they have the pieces in place to spread the field and really open things up for Peterson to run wild once again.

Ultimately that defense is too shotty to really make a run at the playoffs and personally I don’t know how sold I am on Bridgewater. That being said they should be better on offense and can’t be much worse on defense. I really hope they figure out a way to spread the field to allow Peterson to be as good as he can be because there may not be a more fun player to watch in the game right now. I think they finish up at 6-10 but make some nice strides forward setting themselves up nicely for a playoff run in 2015.

2. Chicago Bears (+320)

The Bears have a touch of that Lions feeling to them. While they are far from incompetent as an organization they just can’t seem to get over the hump. They feel like they should be better than they actually are every year and struggle in the same ways. But they at least seem to be trying. But signing Cutler to a massive seven year deal seems counterintuitive. Have you ever bet the Bears and felt confident in Jay Cutler or have you just been incredibly worried that this would be one of his five interception games? Don’t get me wrong I would take Cutler over Stafford ten times out of ten but he is far from an elite QB. He can make any throw at any given time but he just isn’t consistent enough to lead the Bears to the promise land. That being said the Bears are really going to rely heavily on Cutler and that offense to put up big numbers because the Bears defense is not what you would expect out of a Chicago Bears defense. The safety position is filled with holes and has jobs up for grabs heading into training camp. The cornerbacks can make plays and create turnovers but they aren’t exactly lockdown defenders. They are going to need Jared Allen and the rest of the front seven to step up and put pressure on opposing quarterbacks to help the rest of the guys behind them.

While there are plenty of things to be nervous about if you are a Bears fan, and as much as I have knocked them thus far, I actually like their team solely because of their offensive firepower. If Matt Forte can stay healthy and play in all 16 games they have enough playmakers on offense to compete with the Packers for the division. Between Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery they have what could be the best duo of wide receivers in the NFL this season. They are both big, physical receivers that together can beat even the best of secondaries, they just need some consistency out of Jay Cutler. I think they will start off slow as the schedule is a bit rough but ultimately come out of it with a 10-6 record. This is another team I would sit on before making any future bets. They could very well be 3-5 to start the season before running off a series of wins and sneaking into the playoffs.

1. Green Bay (-120)

The Packers are the favorite to win this division for a very obvious reason. Aaron Rodgers is good enough by himself to earn that respect and when you stack him up against the likes of Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford, it’s just the obvious play. In fact I would advise a rather large bet on them at -120 to win this division because I just don’t see any situation in which they don’t win the NFC North. Even if Rodgers gets injured they have a damn good chance to top the division at seasons end.

The Packers’ offseason reminds me of the Patriots’ offseason. They spent the majority of it focusing on rebuilding the defense and sort of left the offense on the shoulders of their star quarterback. The Packers went out and bolstered their already exciting front seven by signing Julius Peppers, giving them another great pass rusher to play opposite Clay Matthews. That should help out a secondary that allowed the 24th most passing yards a year ago in that they should be able to pressure opposing quarterbacks even more. Their secondary is still a bit unsettled. They drafted Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (Whose parents need to be examined for giving him that name. It’s nice now that he turned into an NFL player with a fun name but what if he didn’t?) to help out at the safety position but he can’t do it himself. They are going to need to get to the quarterback to help out their defensive backs and to eliminate the quick scores against them.

On the offensive side of the ball you know what you are getting. Aaron Rodgers is going to make whoever he is throwing to better and as long as he has guys that give a shit like Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, he is going to succeed at just that. Also Eddie Lacy has proved to be a legit number one back in this league and a bulldog at that. They aren’t going to be able to replace Jermichael Finley, who by the way remains unsigned, but like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers will make due with whoever he has to catch the ball around him. He is good enough to get the job done without any true superstar weapons and in this division him and a revamped defense is enough to win this thing. I think they end up at 13-3 but mostly based off a rather fortunate schedule. I think they will be one of those teams you ride during the regular season but aren't totally convinced they are the real deal. They should rack up the wins but not the confidence of the Super Bowl future bettors.

mlz

Saturday, August 23, 2014