Part two of the props preview features some of my favorite player prop bets to take a peek at before the season starts this Thursday. Let’s not waste any time and get to it.

Most Passing Yards

Peyton Manning 3-1

Drew Brees 3-1

The two obvious favorites are just that for a reason. The last time one of these two guys didn’t win the passing title was 2010, where they finished 2nd and 3rd. This year the Broncos are coming off a record breaking offensive season and Brees has made a habit out of throwing for 5,000+ yards. These two guys could very well break their own personal records en route to another passing title.

Matthew Stafford 7-1

The most overrated QB in the NFL makes this list simply because all the Lions do is throw the ball, plus taking the guy that has Calvin Johnson on his team is a nice handcuff. While I certainly wouldn’t want him if I needed to win a game, Stafford has finished inside the top 3 in passing yards each of the past three seasons. He could very well do it again especially with Rodgers and Brady seemingly lacking the big weapons it usually takes to win a passing title.

Most Rushing Yards

Adrian Peterson 4-1

LeSean McCoy 4-1

The past two winners of the rushing title are the obvious favorites this year. While word is the Vikings are going to look to pass to Peterson a bit more this year he is still the best in the business and if someone like Cordarrelle Patterson can take a leap forward this year it could open things up for Peterson to get back to his form in 2012.

Last year Shady literally ran away with the rushing title, sure Peterson got hurt and didn’t play much down the stretch but he was clear of Matt Forte/second place by nearly 300 yards. This year the Eagles brought in Darren Sproles who could take away touches from McCoy in the passing game but likely won’t have any impact on his rushing numbers. That Eagles offense is built to put up stats and McCoy is the perfect fit for that offense. He should have another monster season.

Arian Foster 15-1

Get ready for a bounce back year from the 2010 rushing champ. Last year he was due to break down after the large load he carried in 2012. This year he doesn’t have someone like Ben Tate behind him to take some carries away and he has to carry an offense that is going to look to control the clock, get out in front and grind the game away relying on their defense to keep the other teams in check.

DeMarco Murray 30-1

The biggest question mark in my eyes for Murray is if he can stay healthy. If he can the Cowboys are going to push the limits with Murray to try and keep that putrid defense off the field as often as possible. They will need to shorten games to give that defense a breather by pounding the run down opposing defenses throats. He is good enough to win the rushing title but again he needs to stay healthy but 30-1 is a great bet.

Zac Stacy 30-1

Zac Stacy is going to be a workhorse this year. The Rams are going to be like the Texans in that they are going to rely heavily on their defense to win games so they need to control the clock on offense by running the ball and he is the clear cut number one back on a team that is going to struggle to throw the ball with Shaun Hill under center. Stacy may be a new name and a bit underrated at this point but something tells me everyone will know who he is by the end of the year if they don’t already.

Most Receiving Yards

Calvin Johnson 3-1

How could you bet this category without throwing some money on Megatron? Last year he missed some time and played with two injuries that needed surgery in the offseason yet he still finished with the 3rd most receiving yards. This year he is going to be 100% healthy headed into the season and in that pass first, second and third offense there is no reason to think he won’t win the receiving title.

AJ Green 20-1

What incredible value you are getting out of such a talented guy. While I don’t have a ton of confidence in a recently paid Andy Dalton to get him the ball in the right spots, he is amongst the best in the league at skying over defensive backs and pulling the ball in. He should be good for at least 1500 yards this year and that gets him into the conversation, especially at 20-1.

Brandon Marshall 20-1

Marshall is clearly Jay Cutler’s favorite target. While Josh McCown turned a bit more to Alshon Jeffery, Marshall got the bulk of the targets when Cutler was under center. With Cutler healthy Marshall should have a big season especially given the fact that Alshon did in fact break out last year, so the opposing defenses will have two monster receivers to protect against. You could argue that Jeffery will take touches away from Marshall you can also argue that the presence of Jeffery will open up the field for Marshall to have one of this best career seasons.

Larry Fitzgerald 45-1

I have high hopes for the Cardinals this season and Bruce Arians loves to throw the ball. Sure it’s Carson Palmer trying to play quarterback but Fitzgerald is still among the best receivers in the NFL. While he may not have had a great 2013 campaign, it took the Cards about half the season to learn Arians scheme. This year they should come out firing right out of the gate and if they can get Andre Ellington going on the ground it is really going to open things up for Fitzgerald.

Reggie Wayne 100-1

Yes he is an aging receiver coming off of season ending knee surgery and yes Luck has transformed some other receivers into viable options but until he got hurt he was Luck’s go to guy and 100-1 for the best target in an offense that wants to throw the ball more is more than great value.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Brandin Cooks 6-1

Brees is really going to like this kid. Last year for Oregon State he caught 128 balls despite being the only real weapon the Beavers had through the air. He is a small, quick, shifty kid that can get open, not to mention he has a great set of hands. With Sproles in Philly, Cooks should be the guy to step in and fill that void. He is going to catch a lot of balls and have some space to work with underneath coverages while defenses protect from letting Brees go deep on them.

Kelvin Benjamin 10-1

Cam has to throw the ball to someone, why not this 6’4 240lb mammoth of an athlete? The Panthers offense will likely be terrible but Benjamin should get plenty of targets since the other receivers on the team are Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant and guys named Philly Brown and Brenton Bersin. Certainly Greg Olsen will continue to be Cam’s go to guy early on but Benjamin is right up there with the best of athletes at his position in the NFL, he should have a big season and be a contender to win ROY from the get go.

Mike Evans 12-1

Another monster wide out coming into the league that can sky with the best of them. Mike Evans routinely made Manziel look good at Texas A&M by going up and getting those 50/50 balls that Manziel loved to toss up. Evans gets the added bonus of having Vincent Jackson line up opposite him which will take a lot of the focus off of Evans. The Bucs brought in Josh McCown to be the starting QB who is no Tom Brady but the one thing I heard this offseason is that he throws a nice jump ball, which isn’t what you want out of your starting quarterback but Mike Evans is great at pulling down those jump balls and has plenty of highlights of him doing so. If McCown can be competent Mike Evans should have himself a nice rookie campaign.

Andre Williams 25-1

I like this play from a value standpoint even though the Giants offensive line is garbage. They will be learning a new offensive system and it will really benefit that offensive line if Williams can keep opposing defenses on their toes by finding or creating holes and hitting them hard and fast like he did at BC last year.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Jadeveon Clowney 3-1

This just feels like too much of a lock to consider anyone else. Certainly one of the other guys could put up monster numbers but with the hype surrounding him and JJ Watt opposite him how can he not win? While defenses won’t just forget about him and focus on Watt they have to pick their poison and Watt is far too good and much more proven to center their focus on the rookie which will open things up for Clowney and allow him to have a monster rookie season.

Comeback Player of the Year

Aaron Rodgers 5-1

This is a quarterback league and Rodgers is arguably the best in the NFL. He should bounce back with a monster season making him the favorite for a reason.

Rob Gronkowski 10-1

If Gronk is 100% for 16 games this season this may be stealing, but how confident can you be that he will be and remain healthy all season? Gronk is such a matchup nightmare and athletic freak that he could put together his best season to date especially with Tom Brady lacking the serious weapons that he deserves.  

Arian Foster 25-1

I expect a big bounce back season out of Foster. To me 25-1 feels like a mistake was made. The Texans are going to need to shorten games and win with their running game and their defense. Without a legitimate backup for Foster to leach carries away he will be the workhorse. Provided he stays healthy he should be right around the top of the list for potential winners of this award.

Reggie Wayne 50-1

This is my favorite value play on the board. While it’s tough to forecast how an aging receiver will bounce back from a blown knee, he was obviously Andrew Luck’s favorite target when he was healthy. While Luck has transformed some of the surrounding cast into pretty good players, Wayne remains as the one proven guy on that team. If he can come back and look like the old Reggie Wayne, Andrew Luck should be looking his way quite often so 50-1 is almost a gift.

Defensive Player of the Year

JJ Watt 8-1

Just like Watt is going to help out Clowney’s production, Clowney is really going to help Watt’s production. Having someone of that caliber on the opposite side that the offense needs to gameplan around is going to make for a devastating combination.

Darrelle Revis 20-1

Revis is in a position in which he comes to a Patriots team that was rebuilding their defense and he is the centerpiece for that. If the Patriots defense gets back to their old selves and shuts teams down instead of that ‘bend don’t break’ crap, he is going to get the bulk of the credit. 20-1 for a guy with that much focus surrounding him is a great play.

Patrick Peterson 25-1

I really think the Cardinals are going to be good and a large part of that will be because of their defense. Peterson just signed a monster deal this offseason and will have a lot of weight on his shoulders to make that defense gel. If the Cardinals rack up ten wins like I think they might, someone is going to get some added recognition and Peterson is the best player on that team and a dynamic defensive player at that.

MVP

Peyton Manning +350

After what he did last year Manning is the obvious favorite to win this again. There are no signs of that offense slowing down. They lost some pieces like Eric Decker but replaced him with Emmanuel Sanders. While the trust he had in Decker won’t be easy to replace the chemistry will eventually get there and there are already too many guys on that team to defend them all. OMAHA.

Tom Brady 10-1

The Patriots’ schedule really stacks up nicely for them. There is a chance that they could be looking at another 14-2 season and with that plus a win over Peyton and the Broncos it would be awfully difficult to give this award to anyone but Brady.

Adrian Peterson 30-1

This is going to be a really interesting year to watch ADP. He should find himself with the ball in space a lot more often, whether it be because he is catching more balls out in the flat or because someone like Cordarrelle Patterson is breaking out and helping take some of the focus off of Peterson and the ground attack. Would you be surprised if Peterson racked up surprised if Peterson racked up 2500 total yards this year? What if I said you could get 30-1 odds for it?

mlz

Thursday, September 4, 2014