Kevin Harvick wanted to get an early win for his new team and boy did he dominate. From early on it felt like everyone else was racing for second. This week we head to yet another track in which Jimmie Johnson owns the most career wins at. That #48 team is exceptional at these 1.5 mile tracks and they will certainly be a factor this Sunday.

 

Stay Away From

Brad Keselowski 7-1

Brad has certainly found some speed this week. After not having his car where he wanted it in the first practice he followed that up with qualifying second and being the third fastest in the final practice. That being said, Brad owns an average finish of 25th in his five career starts. With his crew chief just recently having a baby there is some potential for a storybook type ending, but with his history here I wouldn’t count on it, especially not at 7-1.

Clint Bowyer 8-1

Bowyer is another guy that has been fast this week, he’ll be starting 3rd, but again not much of a track record at this Vegas track. In eight starts he has just one top 5 and has an average finish of just 17.13. He may have some speed but 8-1 simply isn’t long enough odds for a guy who hasn’t won since October of 2012.

Kurt Busch 25-1

You would think 25-1 for a guy racing at his hometown track would be a wise bet, but this is certainly not Kurt’s favorite track on the schedule. In 13 starts he has just one top 5 and three top 10’s and an average finish of 21.77. He might be due to breakout at this place, but it’s just not a wise bet given his history here.

Best Bets

Jimmie Johnson +450

Surprise surprise, Jimmie Johnson made the “Best Bets” list. There is just no way to leave him off regardless of the odds. He has won in Vegas four times, more than any driver ever. He also has five top 5’s and seven top 10’s in 12 career starts good for an average finish of 9.50 which is the best among active drivers. Oh and he posted top 5 speeds in both practices and will be starting 5th when the green flag drops. Despite the fact that we are only two races into this season, it feels like that #48 team is due for a win and they very well could grab that first win this weekend.

 

Matt Kenseth 8-1

The Joe Gibbs Toyota’s are going to be a factor this week. Matt Kenseth is a three time Vegas champ and has the third best average finish among active drivers. In 14 starts he has six top 5’s. He has however struggled a bit this week finding speed. He will be starting 29th and didn’t exactly find much more speed in second practice as he had the 26th fastest car. But Kenseth is a champ and that #20 team will figure that car out and give him a machine that he may be able to wheel to victory.

Carl Edwards 18-1

Here is the best bet on the board. 18-1 for the only guy not named Jimmie Johnson with an average finish under 10 at Vegas. Cousin Carl is a two time Vegas champ and has four top 5’s in nine career starts. He was fastest in the first practice, tenth fastest in the second and will be rolling off in 11th place when the green flag drops. You won’t see this kind of value too often, and I feel like we are due for a backflip.

Best Value Bet

Tony Stewart 25-1

He still doesn’t seem to be 100% and he usually doesn’t start getting hot until the weather starts to warm up, but he is really good at Vegas and on these types of tracks, or any types of tracks for that matter. He is a previous winner at this place and has the 5th best average finish among active drivers. He will be starting back in 24th and wasn’t great in practice, but that #14 team will figure it out and give him a chance and at 25-1 a chance with Tony Stewart behind the wheel is all you need.

My Pick

Kyle Busch 8-1

Unlike his brother, Kyle is pretty good at his hometown track. He did have a rough run in qualifying, meaning he will be starting back in 20th place, but in second practice he was 9th fastest. He is a previous winner in Vegas, and has finished inside the top 5 in 40% of his starts. He should be able to drive through the field and be at the front when he needs to be.

mlz

Saturday, March 8, 2014