1pm Sunday on Fox

This race at The Monster Mile will conclude the Fox broadcast for this season. As bad as they were at times this year they are still the best there is. You will notice rather quickly how bad TNT is at broadcasting NASCAR. Fox missed a lot more cautions than usual for them but TNT has and will always be the best at missing the action.

This 1 mile concrete track really eats these cars up. There is a reason they call it The Monster Mile. The track is really rough along the bottom. It makes you back way out getting into the corner otherwise your car will jump to feeling super tight causing drivers to either get out of the gas or ride up the track and into someone or end up with your ass end coming around sending the roof flaps into action.

Since it is really tough to pass on the bottom, look for some real interesting pit strategies to gain track position. The problem is the track is so rough it eats up tires. So, taking two and then getting a long green run could really hurt you. You need to get a bit lucky to move through the pack here with a two tire change and then another quick caution or something along those lines. You probably will not see guys like Tony Stewart falling a lap down and then racing his way back up to finish 7th like last week.

What you will see is some fast cars. The banking here is 24 degrees in the corners and 9 degrees on the straightaways. When you look at other 1 mile tracks like Loudon, they have half the banking in the corners of Dover and only 1 degree on the straightaways. That translates into a qualifying record of 135.232 mph at Loudon and a 161.522 mph at Dover. When things start to get dicey and the pressure is on at the end we are going to see guys trying to dive bomb the bottom and at those speeds there should be some big wrecks.

Best Bets:

Jimmie Johnson 5-1

There are two guys sitting at 4-1 and another also at 5-1. This #48 team won this race last year and has a measly seven wins at this track. In 22 races he has the 7 wins, 11 top 5’s and 16 top 10’s. If you are betting this race you HAVE to bet Jimmie even if it’s just as a hedge.

Denny Hamlin 5-1

My pick to win the race. I said it last week that he was at least another week away. Now he is back on the pole in a track position race. His odds aren’t great but he is prime to get on the board and make a run towards The Chase. It starts tomorrow.

Ryan Newman 40-1

The best longshot bet on the board. That #39 team has run fairly well recently and ran up front last week. They seem to be figuring it out. Not to mention Ryan Newman may be out of a job at the end of the year if he doesn’t pick his game up. He is starting 5th here tomorrow and will be looking for his 4th win at Dover. If you don’t count Stenhouse and his one career race here Newman has the 4th best average finish among all active drivers. He needs it more than most and has the comfort of having won here multiple times in the past. He knows what it will take and again... he needs it.

mlz

Saturday, June 1, 2013