Last week was pretty fun this week seems like it’s going to be as well. I had a decent week last week and am feeling really confident with this weeks picks/thoughts, but I’m already late enough let’s just dive on in.

Big Games:

The Red River Rivalry 12:00pm ABC

Ole Miss vs Texas A&M 8:35pm ESPN

LSU vs Florida 3:35pm CBS

Locks of the Week (6-16)

LSU -7 vs Florida

Florida stepped up last week. They showed me some heart and a growing sense of confidence. However that is about to be squashed by the most raucous arena, maybe in all of sports. That loss to Georgia hurt like hell but they had a bye week following it and then blew out Mississippi State in their building last week. The loss to UGA was a stinger but they know they still have Alabama on their schedule, the season is far from lost.

South Carolina -5.5 @ Arkansas

Clowney is doing the right thing. During that opening game against the Tar Heels, Clowney made a nice play early in the first quarter and I sort of jokingly said to AP3 okay now he should just sit out the rest of the year. I am totally fine with this if he does just that. As a fan I hate that I am losing a year of watching this guy but I can’t blame him for not risking his career. Look at Willis McGahee; sure he went on to make some money and somehow is still in the league. But think about that knee injury and how frigen good he was, how fun he was to watch. He made it in the NFL because 40% of Willis was better than 90% of the rest. Clowney saw it in person when his teammate Marcus Lattimore blew out his knee last year. Being a lineman it would be easy to get rolled up on and it’s not worth risking what he could be and how much money he could make. I hate that it means he is leaving his teammates at SC hanging but I don’t feel like anyone can blame him for it.

This is certainly half baked but I just thought of something that could maybe work (or more likely have a giant hole in it I am overlooking since it’s a legit fresh idea). What if NFL teams could draft underclassmen without changing the age limitations? It would sorta be like a minor league system but with guys on different teams. Say someone used a draft pick on Clowney after his freshman year; they would own his rights, and pay him an NFL contract while he finishes his college years. Think Larry Bird, or the foreign NBA players some teams stash across the sea until they are ready. It would reduce nonsense money scandals and the need to pay players at the collegiate level, since the ones that deserve it will earn it. I’m sure theres some stupid NCAA rule that blocks it, but it’s about time they wake the eff up.

Texas A&M -6 @ Ole Miss

Two weeks to prep for a team that just lost to Auburn? Yes please. To be honest I had Ole Miss originally slated as an upset pick because it just felt like a possible Nkemdiche breakout game as he beats up Manziel. But then I remembered the Aggies were coming off a bye and there is just too much value in them at -6.

Washington +13 vs Oregon

Stay tuned…

Teaser of the Week (3-2)

Baylor -7.5 @ Kansas State

Oklahoma -3 @ Texas

South Carolina +4.5 @ Arkansas

I couldn’t pull the trigger on Oklahoma at -13. Even though Texas sucks, it’s one of if not the biggest rivalry games in sports and OU isn’t good enough to command 13.

Baylor @ Kansas State Over 67.5

Texas A&M PK @ Ole Miss

I’m doubling down this week. These are two goodas, I’m feeling very confident about having a good week. I started off about as bad as possible but had a pretty good week last week, I feel good about riding that momentum into a big week this week. Sort of like Baylor’s offense.

Moneyline Specials (2-5)

Washington +400 vs Oregon

Way too much state rivalry going on here to be this big of a win for Oregon. They deserve that spread though, they have earned it. Washington has not, but they will this weekend, when they beat the Ducks. Think about what you need to beat a high powered offense like Oregon. A good defense is the first thing that comes to mind… Washington has allowed just 14.8ppg good for 10th in the nation. Next thing is a good running game to control the clock… they sit at 15th in the nation averaging 258.8ypg while not falling off much in the passing game, to keep it balanced, as they are 23rd in the nation. You will also likely need a great home field advantage… have you seen the Seahawks play? Lock it up.

Bet of the Week (2-3)

Baylor -17.5 @ Kansas State

Baylor @ Kansas State over 73.5

I’m doubling down again. I’m feeling confident that this week is going to really kick off my 2013-14 college picks season. Last week I did pretty well and it’s time to get hot. I feel like I have a much better grasp of the league. While I could try and fix that ugly 10 games under .500 “Locks of the Week” section, I figure let’s make this the second straight week we get something above .500. Last week was the Teaser category, this week it’s the “Bet of the Week” one, which is ultimately the worst one to have a bad record with. Anyways on to why…

I certainly picked the wrong one of these two teams to win this conference. Baylor is flat out loaded. Typically when you have the #1 passing attack in the nation it is at the expense of the running game and maybe it is a bit since they are 2nd in the nation. They certainly haven’t played anyone too good yet, but when you hang 70 every week you deserve some credit. This team is going to give every ounce it has towards a national title shot. They play OU and Texas Tech at home and suddenly that game at Oklahoma State isn’t looking nearly as difficult. But without a Big 12 title game to add to their resume, they might fall short even with a perfect record, to a few other undefeateds. At which point I’ll want to never stop vomiting as every talking head screams about the BCS one final time.

PS. I apologize for this being a bit late, I had a rough week, anyway the more I think about it the more I love my drafting underclassmen idea. It’s right up there with calling pick 6’s “INTD’s”. Let’s make these things happen. There may be an entire column coming on this soon.

mlz

Friday, October 11, 2013