Where the hell did the time go? We are one day removed from Thanksgiving and we are already in the final full week of college football. Maybe the amount of food I ate yesterday plays into this but man am I depressed. Luckily, it shouldn’t last long, until Monday, because we have a full slate of rivalry games loaded with conference and national title implications spread out over today and tomorrow. This should be the best week of college football to date and could end up giving us about a half dozen of the best games of the season. Come Sunday, things will be much more clear, and come Monday, the depression will probably start to set back in, knowing this football season is nearly over, despite it not even being winter yet. Sure you could save money and buy gifts for the holidays, or you can join me in curing that hangover by winning some money this weekend before the opportunities run out.

Big Games

Oregon vs Oregon State Friday 7pm FS1

Michigan vs Ohio State 12pm ABC

UNC vs Duke 12pm ESPN2

Auburn vs Alabama 3:30pm CBS

South Carolina vs Clemson 7pm ESPN2

Missouri vs Texas A&M 7:50pm ESPN

USC vs UCLA 8pm ABC 

Locks 20-26-1

Miami PK @ Pittsburgh

I know the U is not the same without star running back Duke Johnson, but Pittsburgh is not a good football team. The Panthers are no better than a .500 football team and a win by the Hurricanes today would assure them of exactly that.

Washington State +16.5 @ Washington

Both of these teams have disappointed me a bit this year. But State has the 5th best passing attack in the nation which should be enough to at least cover this one. Both teams have lost to Stanford, Oregon and Arizona State, while State has also lost to Oregon State and Auburn while Washington lost to UCLA and ultimately had the easier schedule. These teams are much closer than 16.5 points.

Oregon State +23 @ Oregon

Let’s be honest, the Ducks are definitely the better team in this matchup. But the Beavers have some pieces that can keep them in the game. Like Brandin Cooks and Sean Mannion, aka the nations leading receiver and the nations leading passer. That combo should be enough to keep the Beavers in this rivalry game, in which Marcus Mariota will be playing, but playing injured. Not to mention the Ducks have to be a little down after the past few weeks.

Duke +5.5 @ UNC

The only thing that stands in the way of the Blue Devils and a trip to the ACC championship game is the rival Tar Heels. Usually this rivalry takes form on the basketball court, but for a change the Duke faithful will be cheering their football team to a possible conference championship game. It certainly won’t be easy, but there I can’t picture a scenario in which UNC covers this. They have a good squad over there, but there should be plenty of Duke fans in the house to cheer them on. At the very least this should be a field goal game.

Tennessee -4 @ Kentucky

The Vols have been in a bit of a rut, having lost four straight, five of six and seven of their last nine. But take a look at how tough their schedule was. Their losses came at the hands of @ #2 Oregon, @ #19 Florida, vs #6 Georgia (In OT), @ #1 Alabama, @ #9 Missouri, vs #9 Missouri, and then vs Vanderbilt on the heels of games @ #1, @ #9 and vs #9. My point is they are much better than their record suggests. They had to play seven games against teams inside the top 20, winning just one at home against #11 South Carolina, which happens to be what is separating the Gamecocks from the lead in the SEC East. Meanwhile, Kentucky has just two wins, at home against Miami (OH), and at home against Alabama State. Of their nine losses only two were by decided by one score. The Wildcats are in full fledged hoops mode and will likely be making some big changes in the offseason. The Vols are the better team and should be favored by more. This has all the makings of a blowout.

Missouri -4.5 vs Texas A&M

This should be one hell of an exciting football game. Missouri needs to win to earn their place in the SEC Championship game, but to do so they will have to knock off Johnny Manziel. The two most important players on the field are both quarterbacks whom had a lot of Heisman buzz surrounding them. Johnny Manziel lost games, taking him out of the hunt while James Franklin suffered an injury taking his name out of the hat. But now Franklin is back and looked great in his return, a 24-10 win @ #24 Ole Miss to keep their title hopes alive. A win gets them into the SEC Championship game and could propel them into the BCS National Title talks if they can win out.

Baylor -13 @ TCU

Suddenly the Baylor Bears are behind the eight-ball. After getting their doors blown off by Oklahoma State last week, the Bears now need to win out and get some help to win the Big 12 (with ten teams). TCU’s defense might be able to replicate what the Cowboys’ did last week, but their offense simply isn’t good enough to keep Bryce Petty off the field. And they certainly aren’t good enough to outscore Baylor. This is simply going to come down to how many points can Baylor put up on TCU. I think they get back to their high flying offensive ways and blow the Horned Frogs out of the water, keeping their Big 12 championship and BCS bowl hopes alive.

UCLA +3.5 @ USC

How the hell are the Trojans favored by more than three points? Am I really supposed to believe that this team is straight up better than UCLA? They have some nice wins on their schedule this year, but in large part thanks to their opponents schedule. Like getting Stanford at home coming off of games vs UCLA, @ Oregon State, and vs Oregon in consecutive weeks. They have mostly been forced to win close, low scoring games, but this week will have their hands full on defense going up against Brett Hundley and a UCLA offense that has scored more points than all but 25 teams in the country. Maybe the fact that UCLA is coming off of a heartbreaker @ Arizona State last week, will play right into the Trojans’ hands, like it has all season, but the more likely scenario is that UCLA will really want to end their regular season with a win over the rival Trojans. They are the better team and you are getting extra points.

Arizona +11 @ Arizona St

Who would have thought both teams from Arizona would be coming off of monster wins heading into the last week of the season? Arizona absolutely beat down the Oregon Ducks, while State knocked off #14 UCLA on the road to earn their spot in the Pac-12 title game. Both could be prime for a letdown and in an in-state rivalry game like this one, the points are the determining factor. Eleven points should be more than enough to cover what will likely be a sloppy hard fought game.

Moneyline Specials 4-11

UCLA +140 @ USC

Duke +180 @ UNC

So wait, in both of these games you can get underdog value for the two better teams? Thank you.

Auburn +345 vs Alabama

There is just too much value here to pass up. Everybody has had Alabama penciled into the National Title game since the season started and they haven’t done anything to make us think they won’t end up there. But this Auburn team is legit. The way I see it there are a few things that need to happen to make this upset possible. First it needs to be a low scoring defensive battle. Second, Alabama is going to do all they can to take away the run, so Auburn is going to need a career game out of Junior Quarterback Nick Marshall. Like when Manziel beat the Crimson Tide one year ago, the Tigers are going to need a big game out of Nick Marshall on the ground and through the air. We know he can carry the load running the ball, but whether or not he can make Alabama play against the pass still remains a question. Regardless, +345 is great value for a team that has seen the blueprint and has the team in place to execute and shock Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide. By the way if Auburn beats Alabama and then win the SEC Championship, do they jump Ohio State? They should right? If Auburn wins out they deserve to be in the national championship game more than Ohio State does… fact not opinion. 10-1 for Auburn to win the National Title is a sneaky sexy play.

Teasers 6-6

Miami +6 @ Pittsburgh

Oregon State +29 @ Oregon

Miami is not losing to Pittsburgh and if they do it will be a field goal type loss. Meanwhile the Ducks’ season is over and with Mariotta being less than 100%, 29 points in a rivalry game with a team that has an exceptional passing attack should be more than enough to make this a Friday winner.

Duke +15.5 @ UNC

Baylor -3 @ TCU

UCLA +13.5 @ USC

For Saturday, I think we have another winning teaser. Granted three team teasers always seem to have someone screw up, but who loses this one? Duke is playing for their first ever appearance in the ACC title game and will be looking to win the ACC for the first time since being co-champions back in 1989.

Baylor needs to win to keep any hopes of a Big 12 championship and a BCS bowl, alive. While UCLA is getting 13.5 points in a rivalry game against the Trojans. Worst case scenario; all three of these games will be close. But I don’t think any of these spreads will ever be in doubt.  

Best Bet 5-9

Auburn +10.5 vs Alabama

The Iron Bowl. The game of the week. The Crimson Tide vs the in-state rival Auburn Tigers, with the SEC West and a trip to the SEC Championship game on the line. I’m not sure anyone but Jason Dufner and Charles Barkley thought that it would come down to this. Head coach Gus Malzahn has turned a 3-9 (0-8 in the SEC) team from a year ago, into a team one win away from the SEC Championship game. Alabama may be the overwhelming favorite but Auburn is not going to roll over. They have the nation’s second best rushing offense, averaging over 320 yards per game on the ground. In a game that really has defined their season so far, they won @ Texas A&M by outscoring Johnny Manziel 21-10 in the 4th quarter to earn a 45-41 victory against an Aggie team that had only lost to the Crimson Tide. Alabama may be a juggernaut, but the Tide isn’t going to be able to roll through this one. This has all the makings of a low scoring defensive battle highlighted by a lot of run plays. This could end up being like those Alabama/LSU games from a few years ago, in which points were extremely hard to come by. In a game like that I want the points, especially when you can get a 10 point head start in a game that might have 10 total points. This should be the biggest test for Alabama at this point in the season and could determine who ends up playing for the national title.

mlz

Friday, November 29, 2013