This 1.37 mile egg shaped oval known as Darlington has been dubbed “Too Tough to Tame” by most everyone involved. While the track will create quite a few headlines mid race the biggest one heading into the race is the health of Denny Hamlin. He is slated to return to drive the #11 machine for all 500 miles and despite missing most of the past five races he is going off at +750 to win this race, good for 5th best. With Denny’s season really re-starting this week can he battle his way into The Chase?

Night racing is almost always fun even when it is not under the lights as last week showed. What a great finish with the two David’s (Ragan and Gilliland) coming from out of nowhere to finish 1-2 at Talladega.

This week we get treated to a track we are going to see a hell of a lot of racing stripes from guys getting into the wall. With the racing groove being up close to the wall any little wiggle can lead to scraping the wall. Trust me when I say by the end of the race there will be a lot of cars where you can not read the number on the right side of the car. Typically that makes for one of the favorites to win this race. Especially with Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch starting on the front row.

Best Bets:

Jimmie Johnson 4-1

This guy has been damn near perfect this year. His 383 championship points are not only second to none but are 41 points more than Carl Edwards 342 which is good for second. Anyone else surprised to hear Carl is 2nd in points? Not that you would expect anything less from Jimmie, Chad and the #48 team. He has two wins and seven top 6 finishes in 10 races this year. He has also led laps in all six of those races including a max points day at Martinsville.

At Darlington Jimmie has the second most wins amongst active drivers unless you are still counting Bill Elliot. Johnson has three wins (including this race last year), seven top 5’s and ten top 10’s in fourteen career races here. That is good for the 2nd best average finish at 9.14. With him starting on the front row there is no doubt in my mind you will get your moneys worth out of him. If he does not win he will at least give you someone to root for down the stretch.

Kyle Busch 4-1

Not statistically as dominant here as you might think but that is not stopping me from betting him to win the race. He owned the Nationwide race last night. He just out-talented everyone last night. Tonight he won’t be able to do that but he is starting just behind his brother Kurt Busch in position 3. He has won in a cup car here before so he knows what it takes. He has been fast all week here and that will not stop tonight.

Martin Truex Jr 9-1

Tough to call a 9-1 shot a good darkhorse pick but that is exactly what Marty is at this point. He has been without a win since he got his first victory at Dover in 2007. If you ask him about this race last year he will tell you he gave it away. He has been so close so many times yet can not get off the schneid in a points race. He starts 5th and got his first career top 5 here last year in his seven career races at Darlington. The year before he picked up a top 10. Again discounting BIll Elliot as an active driver, (sorry Bill big fan but you get it right?) Marty has the 4th best average finish with a 11.29. After arguably blowing the race last year I think Marty Truex is going to be celebrating long into the night tonight after grabbing his first win in six years. He is my pick to win.

Kevin Harvick 15-1

Every week it seems like Harvick is a great value bet. He may struggle all race long but there is always the potential of him closing out the race like he famously does. Sure he has never won here and has struggled for the most part but he is starting inside the top 10 so he has some good starting track position which is going to be important. He is going to be riding around the top 10 all race long and with any luck he will have a chance to win this thing in the last few laps.

Kurt Busch 18-1

The ultimate value bet. So much value it almost is too scary to bet. Kurt is on the pole after setting a new track record yet is going off at 18-1. While it may be cliche to say since every driver wants to win every race every week, there is nobody that wants to win more than Kurt Busch. Since his rocky ending at Penske Racing in 2011 Kurt has bounced around from the #51 to now the #78, two one car teams. Since his departure he has been trying to rebuild his name as one of the best drivers on the circuit instead of just being a gigantic pain in the ass. Winning is the best way to do just that and he knows it. He is going to do whatever it takes to win every week. There is no points racing for the #78 team this year.

So what is not to like? Well for starters he is Kurt Busch. Not only has be made some enemies in recent weeks but he hasn’t exactly finished races all too strong. His aggression seems to burn him out come the end of the race. He is one of those guys you try and guess what lap he will wreck out with your buddies. Lately the over/under has been pushed further and further into the race. One of these weeks things are going to break his way and he is going to get a win. Though it may not come until he calms the eff down.

While I will be betting him I will not be rooting for him. I was never a huge Kurt Busch fan but in fairness I never really disliked him either. Until a few weeks ago when he got into it with Tony Stewart. I know what you are thinking... stop being a homer. This one has nothing to do with siding with Tony. It has to do with how Kurt handled the situation. He bumped Tony out of the way further sinking his season and while that pissed me off what happened after pissed me off more. After bumped Tony out of the way Kurt continued on his march to the front until Matt Kenseth bumped him out of the way exactly the same thing he did to Tony. After the race ended Kurt gave Matt a bump from behind basically saying hey asshole I am not happy with that move you just pulled. Until Tony confronted Kurt for his move. Kurt came out on the defensive saying hey that is just racing the same thing happened to me. He tried to play the good guy. But he just got pissed off at Kenseth for doing it to him. How can he be such a hypocrite? If Tony did not confront him after the race the post race show 100% would have involved Kurt being pissed off at Kenseth. Tony saved Matt from having Kurt in his face. I can’t root for someone that narcissistic and hypocritical.

Regardless at 18-1 you are getting someone that just cares about nothing but winning right now and that is where you want to have your money.

The Most Fun Bets:

Denny Hamlin 16-1 to win the Championship

Denny Hamlin +750 to win the Bojangles Southern 500

Now is the probably the last chance you will get to bet Denny at such great odds. I don’t care that he is probably not 100%, he is just as likely to win this race as anyone else. He has the best average finish amongst active drivers with a 5.86, Jimmie is 2nd with 9.14, so yah he is pretty good here. There might not be another driver I would like to bet coming off an injury like this more than Hamlin. He just has the right combination of great attitude, talent, and hunger. Remember in 2011 when Tony Stewart just decided he was going to win the championship after a season well below his standards? Denny has a chance to do something rather similar and there is an ace in the hole... crew chief Darian Grubb aka the guy who was Tony’s Crew Chief in 2011.

Denny is going to need to win races to get into the Chase this year, he has won five times since adding Grubb to the #11 pit box and a sixth this week could get him started on an unprecedented quest or the title. At the very least it will be fun as hell to root for. This is another reason the Chase is a great addition to NASCAR. We could be about to witness history.

PS. Did you know that fans vote on the NASCAR Hall of Fame? Click here to vote.

mlz

Saturday, May 11, 2013