Yesterday the Nationwide Series showed that we should be in for some good racing today. Tires are going to be rather important and believe it or not there is a 0% chance of rain today in Fontana, CA. We should finally get a chance to watch a good race without worrying about weather and delays.

 

Stay Away From

Matt Kenseth 6-1

Matt has been really fast, not only this season but this week and specifically at this track. He has had some bad luck so far this week, but he once again should be running up front all day. He is starting on the pole and had a fast car in practice as well. Plus he is a three time winner in Fontana and holds the third best average finish among active drivers. He is still searching for that first win of the season.

However, he is still waiting on that new baby. Sam Hornish sits and waits incase that baby comes, and you don’t win if Sam Hornish wins in that #20 car.

Best Bets

Kevin Harvick 6-1

Harv has just been one of the fastest on track all week and he will be starting on row two. He has won here before and despite some bad luck that #4 team has been up the front in every race this year. He has the speed in his car to win his second race of the year, but can it make it to the end.

Jeff Gordon 8-1

I liked him more when he was 15-1, but his odds dropped after a few good practice sessions and qualifying 6th. He is a three time winner here and holds an average finish of 11.79 in 24 career starts, good for 5th among active drivers.

Carl Edwards 15-1

After things broke his way last week, he has a chance to come a speedway that he has excelled at in the past. Carl is the only active driver with an average finish under 10 (8.44), that isn’t named Jimmie Johnson. He has only taken the checkered flag once here, but he has finished inside the top 5 in 50% of his starts. While he hasn’t been the fastest in practice this week, he qualified 9th and has the freedom to take some chances and maybe grabbing a second win this season.

Kurt Busch 25-1

This is just too much value to pass up. He qualified back in 17th, but was fast in practice all week long. He has a win here in the past and has the 6th best average finish among active drivers. 25-1 is a gift.

Best Value Bets

Tony Stewart 20-1

How happy did Smoke look last week after grabbing a top 5? Now he comes to a place where he has won twice at in the past. He loves these fast D shaped oval tracks. He may not have been great in practice, but he qualified 10th and history has served him well in these types of races.

My Pick

Jimmie Johnson 4-1

This feels like a relatively easy pick this week. I know the odds suck but how could I not pick the only active five time winner here. In fact in 19 career starts he has 12 top 5’s and a career worst finish of 16th. 16th! That’s pretty frigen good and leads to obviously the best average finish among active drivers at 5.74. That’s just sick. Not to mention he still hasn’t won this season and will be rolling off 3rd after having a fast car in practice. He’s the pick to win today without a doubt.

mlz

Sunday, March 23, 2014