Sunday 2pm on ESPN

This is without a doubt one of the better races of the year. This one mile oval has been dubbed “Too Tough to Tame”. Expect to see a lot of cars with their numbers rubbed off the right side of their cars. These cars are going to flat fly around this track. While it is a track position race, there should be plenty of cautions to bunch things up. The restarts will be exciting because track position is so important. Drivers will be gunning for every spot they can get on the restart. You will likely hear the phrase “cautions breed cautions” multiple times tomorrow.

Stay Away From:  

Matt Kenseth 4-1

There’s no way he can win three straight right? He is starting outside of Dale Jr. on the front row but it’s a long race. I just can’t see him starting the Chase with three straight wins. Expect a good finish though.

Kurt Busch 20-1

Kurt actually won this race two years ago, is starting inside the top 10 and is somehow 20-1. Regardless, he is not going to win this race. The #78 team will have a bunch of new faces going over the wall on pit road. Too many new guys to not make at least one mistake to set him back in traffic in a track position race.

Best Bets:

Jimmie Johnson +350

Three men have won at this track seven times; Bobby Allison, Richard Petty and Jimmie Johnson. Of his 23 starts at Dover, Johnson has recorded 11 top 5’s and 16 top 10’s. That is kind of good. He will take the green flag in 8th position and try to make up some ground on Kenseth and Kyle. This track is exactly what Johnson needed. A little prediction from me… if Johnson does win this race, he will win the championship.

Carl Edwards 12-1

You may not have expected this, because I sure didn’t, but Carl has the been the best at this track. While he has only recorded one win, he has the best average finish among active drivers with an average finish of 8.61. This week he will roll out in 4th place and should ride up the front for most of the day.

Best Value Bet:

Kevin Harvick 18-1

This just feels like it might be one of those races where Harvick starts 12th rides around just inside the top 10 for the first 390 laps before making his way to the lead with about two to go. 18-1 is incredible value here, despite not having the best Dover pedigree.

Ryan Newman 25-1

I can get a three time Dover winner that is starting 3rd at 25-1? Thank you.

Mark Martin 75-1

I know I have said in the past that he likely won’t win another race but why not take the 75-1 value on a guy that has won at Dover 4 times and finished inside the top 5 a record 24 times and inside the top 10 a record 31 times. For those of you screaming “longevity” at your computer screens sure that did factor in. But 24 top 5’s in 54 starts is pretty frigen good.

AJ Allmendinger 100-1

Mostly because he is 100-1. But for the most part I like what I have seen from him in his comeback bid.

My Pick:

Kyle Busch 5-1

This race has me thinking about Kyle’s success at The Glen in the past few years. He finished as the runner up in back to back years only to finally grab that win this year. In this Chase Kyle has started with back to back runner up finishes and now I think is going to grab the win here this weekend. He certainly has the pedigree to do so at this track. He has won here twice before and has eight top 5’s out of his 17 starts.

mlz

Saturday, September 28, 2013