Finally after a week off it is almost time to go back to racing. After rain washed out qualifying, Kyle Larson will be starting on the pole after posting the fastest time in the first practice. This ¾ mile short track makes for an exciting race that seems to produce first time winners quite often but it is not very easy to navigate. There should be a lot of racing stripes and beating and banging of cars. We should be in for a treat when we go short track racing on Saturday night.

 

Stay Away From

Jimmie Johnson 7-1

Don’t be fooled by his three victories here, this is not one of Johnson’s favorite tracks. Yes of course he is a threat to win every single week but his average finish is just 17.29. In 24 races he has only posted 8 top 10’s. While there are a lot of drivers that would love to have those numbers, they aren’t coming in at 7-1. The value just isn’t there.

Brad Keselowski 7-1

Imagine if Johnson’s numbers were worse and he didn’t have the three wins at this track and he had five less championships, would you bet him at the same value? I didn’t think so.

Best Bets

Kyle Busch 7-1

Kyle has been the best of the best at this place. In 18 starts he has won 4 times and finished inside the top 5 12 times leading to the best average finish among active drivers with a 7.22. That’s kind of good.

Denny Hamlin 12-1

The only other active driver with an average finish inside the top 10 is this guy with an 8.93. While he hasn’t had the success as his teammate Kyle Busch has had and he hasn’t been as fast this week either but he has won here twice and at 12-1 there is a lot of value in the #11 team tonight.

Carl Edwards 14-1

Carl has really had some success at this place. In his last nine races here his worst finish is 17th and he has finished inside the top 6 six times including a win the last time we went racing here. You are getting your moneys worth at 14-1 here.

Best Value Bets

Matt Kenseth 12-1

In the past four races at Richmond, nobody has posted a better average finish than Kenseth. He is certainly due for his first win of the season and it might just come here tonight.

Ryan Newman 30-1

Newman has been really fast here this week and only five active drivers have posted a better average finish at this place. He still has the ability to win races and he has won here before and finished runner up twice.

Marcos Ambrose 75-1

Marcos is sneaky good at tracks like this. He seems to find his way to the front and at 75-1 for a guy who feels like he might be able to take some chances on earning a win with the two road courses still coming up on the schedule, is fantastic value.

My Pick

Tony Stewart 20-1

While he missed the fall race here last year, he has been pretty good here in recent races. Last year in this race he finished 18th, but the four races before that he finished 4th, 3rd, 9th, and 7th. Oh and not to forget he is a three time winner at this track that holds a special place in his heart since he earned his first career victory at this place. He wants/needs to get his first win of the season and first win since his leg injury and he has the speed to do it tonight.

mlz

Saturday, April 26, 2014