What a great race this should be tonight. The only weather in Darlington should be sunny and 75, with a zero percent chance of rain for once. This track was home of the closest finish in NASCAR history when Ricky Craven topped Kurt Busch by .002 seconds. This 1.366 mile track is really a track of its own. It has been dubbed “Too Tough to Tame” for a reason. While that may be a stretch the list of winners here isn’t really that long, but the guys who are able to figure out a fast way around continue to have success. Expect a fast track tonight, that should change as we head into the night and a fun race filled with racing stripes. I am quite excited for this one and for the lack of potential weather.

 

Before we get to the betting aspect of this I just wanted to list the active full time drivers that have won at this track because it is astoundingly short…

Jeff Gordon - 7 wins

Jimmie Johnson - 3 wins

Greg Biffle - 2 wins

Matt Kenseth - 1 win

Kyle Busch - 1 win

Regan Smith - 1 win

Denny Hamlin - 1 win

… that is it. Only seven full time drivers have been to victory lane here.

Stay Away From

Jimmie Johnson +450

Last year I feel like I nailed almost all of the guys I had in the stay away from section. This year it’s crazy how well the drivers have done against me. Last week Logano won, earlier in the year Keselowski grabbed a win and I’m sure there was at least one maybe two others, but I’m not going to spend extra time making myself look worse. Anyway, Johnson is one of those drivers that has figured this track out to some extent, but he hasn’t been particularly fast or confident in his car this week. I know the #48 team will figure it out and Jimmie will probably wheel that thing to his first victory of the season but +450 is just far too short for my liking.

Best Bets

Greg Biffle 25-1

Biffle might be starting 19th but he has been running pretty well the past few races and he is a two time winner at this place. The value of 25-1 is just too nice to pass up.

Tony Stewart 25-1

In 25 starts Smoke has never won here, but he does possess a top 5 average finish among active drivers. This really feels like a race he can win. He typically heats up with the weather and seeing as to how it is about 80 degrees today in Darlington County, and will be mid 70’s when the green flag drops this might be a real opportunity to earn the third victory of the season for SHR.

Best Value Bets

Jeff Gordon 8-1

Typically value bets have long odds but in this case Jeff can’t be passed up for his history at this track. Seven wins can’t be shrugged off by the fact that Jeff has really struggled to be the first to take the checkered flag the past few years.

Ryan Newman 40-1

What great value for a guy with the 6th best average finish among active drivers at this place, nevermind the fact that he is starting 7th and had the fastest car in the second practice.

Marcos Ambrose 100-1

Marcos seems to be getting better. I like what I have seen from him this year. He seems to have some confidence and this track could be what he needs to grab his first win of the year. He is great at the grueling tracks and this is certainly one of the toughest on the schedule.

My Pick

Denny Hamlin 10-1

How would you like 10-1 odds on a guy that has finished inside the top 5 in half his career starts, including one win and the best average finish among active drivers with a 5.38, at a track dubbed “Too Tough Too Tame”? Yes I would like that quite a bit as well. FedEx isn’t going to be thrilled to see Denny celebrating his first win of the season with “Sport Clips” on the hood.

mlz

Saturday, April 12, 2014