2013 MLB Prop Bets

As you will see a trend forming early and often I have narrowed down each league to three teams that I think can/will make the World Series. Those teams being Detroit, LA, and Toronto in the AL and Washington, LA, and SF in the NL.

Now despite the fact that I like SF, mostly for their value in some of these props, you need to really think about who is going to win their division when betting the pennant race and/or to win the World Series. If you are taking a team you think might have to get in thanks to the wild card spots you are playing with fire. The addition of the second wild card team makes it much more likely that said team will lose before they really make the playoffs. Anything can happen in that winner takes all wild card round. Not to mention that means you probably will have to burn your ace in that game which removes him from game 1 of the divisional series. So when looking to bet a team to win it all try and focus on the division winners.

For the record I am only taking SF because of their pitching potential. If Lincecum can get back to his old dominant ways then they will be a tough out in any playoff series. If they can win that wild card round, someone will have to beat Lincecum and Cain at least once on the road.

Long list of guys almost all capable of pulling off this feat. But there are a few that really stand out. Mike Stanton, yes Mike, is the favorite at +750. If he can stay on the field he feels almost like a lock. Though he has not proven he can be consistent just yet, he did hit 37 homers in just 123 games. That is seven less long balls in 38 less games than league leader Miguel Cabrera last year. If he kept up that pace for the full season he may have eclipsed 50.

While he is a deserving favorite and there are other guys with top dog odds like Joey Bats at 8-1 there is much more value in some of the long shot guys. Take for instance Adrian Beltre. He hit 36 dingers last year just eight shy of Miggy. He is going off at 50-1, thank you BetUS.

Edwin Encarnacion is another. He finished just two back of Miggy a year and is going off at 25-1 this year. I know what you are thinking, it's Edwin Encarnacion what are the odds of him doing it again? Well do not forget that the Blue Jays made such a big splash in free agency. Bringing in Melky and Reyes means he will have more protection. Pitchers are going to have to throw him strikes. From finishing just two back to having better pitches thrown his way and 25-1 odds? Count me in.

Also worth mentioning for the same reason... Matt Kemp. He should have won the MVP over Braun a couple years back and this past season he got hurt. Now he is going to bounce back and be pissed off. He might win the NL MVP this year. Especially since, like Encarnacion, pitchers are going to have to throw to him with other great sluggers hitting around him.

Would you rather have King Felix or Jared Weaver? Some might say Weaver, most will probably say King Felix. But the important question for this prop is who will win more games? King Felix won the 2010 Cy Young with just 11 wins. As you have heard before, wins is not a pitching stat as much as it is a team stat. The Mariners suck this year, the Angels are going to win 100 games. Simply put this one is just a basic math equation. Weaver -.5 wins is as much a lock as anything you will see here.

AP3 just tried to talk me out of this one, but I am convinced that there are three guys that should hit 22 wins without an issue. Nobody hit the mark last year but this year there is a lot more run support for a few top pitchers. The three guys I think definitely get there; Strasburg, Verlander, and Kershaw. There is also hope for Gio Gonzales (21 last year), Jared Weaver (20), and Matt Cain (16).

Also don't forget about RA Dickey. I am not saying he is going to get there but if he can do 80% of what he did last year he has a chance. Remember he won 20 games for the Mets last year. Now he moves on to a team that can provide a ton of runs for him. He has a chance to do it even if he regresses like most of us think he will.

72.5 really? Who the hell is betting the Cubs will win 73 games? Given that they lock these lines in early and just adjust the juice depending which side people are betting, at least half the people are since both sides are still -115. I would like to know if people are that the Cubs won just 61 games last year and had the luxury of playing the Astros 15 times. Those games are now replaced with what can only be stronger competition. There is no effing way they can win 12 more games with a tougher schedule.

Also, do not forget that Jeff Samardzija is their opening day starter. The best times of his athletic career came as a tight end for Notre Dame. Side note can we please figure out a way for him to get a Drew Brees-esk scar on his face so we can start calling him Jeff Smudgeface and then I can stop having to look up how to spell his name? Please and thank you.

Bet your house on the under and thank me in six months when you have two houses. Then please let me move in to the second one, I will happily pay rent.

Also along the same lines with this one. You get the picture. But let me say this; those are not the most appetizing World Series winner odds in the world I know. But if you trust that one of those six teams wins the World Series you can bet as much as you want on all six and win money no matter which of the six wins.

The same goes for the “Teams to Meet in the World Series” bets. If you trust that one of those match-ups will happen then a $10 bet on either of the nine will net you +$50 if the lowest of them hits.

You do not have to do it with those teams if you like different teams in fact you might get better odds. But I would advise rolling with this plan with those six teams.

Good luck betting hopefully I gave you a few picks better than Kansas last night. Caught some flack but it comes with making predictions, still can't believe Trey Burke kicked my ass like that.

mlz

Saturday, March 30, 2013