Provided his moms doesn't attend too many games he is going to get the ball in play quite a bit this year. He is going to get pitches to hit and is going to get on base and into position to score with the bats behind him.

 

Batting second behind him is Jason Werth who played in just 81 games last year due to injury. He comes into the year healthy and that is a large upgrade from the backup outfielders they were supplementing him with last year.

 

Then there is Bryce Harper batting third. Did you know, he leads all batters in average in Spring Training with a .478 batting average. He is tearing the cover off the ball and with a little experience in his back pocket he is going to take the next step towards super stardom.

 

Behind him is Ryan Zimmerman who is projected for more fantasy points than anyone on this offense. They are going to score some runs this year. When you pair that with a pitching staff that is young, hungry and getting better with every game they are going to be fun to watch.

 

Speaking of their pitching, they obviously have Strasburg whom they will have for the full season this year which means they might just have the NL Cy Young this year and for years to come. He has already proven himself as an upper echelon starter, but this year we will witness him taking the next step along with Harper to becoming a superstar.

 

Jordan Zimmerman was in the same boat that Strasburg was just a few seasons ago. He needed the same surgery Strasburg did. They limited his innings the following year the same way and he bounced back last year with his best season to date. That seems to be the norm for Tommy John surgeries. It seems to take two years for it to fully heal and to get fully rehabbed. That means watch out for Strasburg to have a just a sick year and Zimmerman's stuff should be just as good as last year only he will get more run support this year.

 

Then there is Gio Gonzales whom two years ago was tossed around as a possible Cy Young candidate to open the year in Oakland. I drafted him probably too early only to see him need surgery of his own. Last year in just his third full MLB season, he posted a 21-8 record with a 2.89 era. He is off to a great start this year as well. With a 3-0 record in spring training with a 1.50 era. With another years experience in the bag and again more run support he might creep up to 25 wins and have an era closer to 2.00.

 

If I have not given you enough reasons to believe in this Nats team then how about the fact that they brought in another solid starter in Dan Haren. Sure he had a tough go last year with the Angels, but outside of Mike Trout who didn't? Haren has been around the league a bit playing for what will be his fifth team over his 10 year career. He is good for 15 wins and an era in the threes. I am not sure you will find a better fourth starter.

 

So basically the Nats are taking their division winning, 98 win team, and making them twice as good. This is a rather deep division but they are the class of it without a doubt.

 

The Contenders: Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies

After a lot of thought I have the Phillies finishing 2^nd in the NL East. They were embarrassing last year. They lost their last two games of the year to finish exactly .500 on the season. That was good for third in the division but they were 17 wins shy of the Nats, 13 back of the Braves for second, and they finished 7 games back of the Cardinals for the second wild card spot. Halladay had an off year, Cliff Lee looked like me pitching out there, and their offense looked like a little league team trying to hit a Danny Almonte fast ball.

 

They need to stay healthy that is an absolute must. Just a few years ago you could argue that Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins were the best at their respective positions in the big leagues. Since then Utley has spent a lot of time on the DL and Ryan Howard just looks like a fat guy playing stick ball in my back yard.

 

They brought in some help in Michael Young who has had a nice career in the AL West, now he gets to face off against NL pitching, so outside of playing the Nats he should have himself a nice season.

 

That also will help out Ryan Howard and the rest of their lineup as it would with any team that now has another guy that has a knack for getting on base.

 

They need their pitching to get back into prime shape if they want to get back into the playoff hunt this year though. They obviously can not afford to have Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay finishing 17-17 on the season if they want to have a chance.

 

Look for both of these guys to have bounce back seasons, and the Phillies to put up at least 95 wins good for second in the division and a wild card bid.

 

The Braves on the other hand really outperformed their talent last year. They have a great young, relatively unknown pitching staff capable of topping last years performance. Obviously it starts with their starting rotation. They need to continue to get a lead for their starters so they can turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball, that posted a 2.76 era last year.

 

Hudson, Medlen, Minor, and Maholm are a solid top four starters though they could use a little help via trade to bring in another top dog. They seem to have four #2 or #3 starters. Top to bottom they are good but they need an ace.

 

As of now their ace is their closer Craig Kimbrel. His 2012 was one of the all time greats by a closer. He set single season records for strikeout rate, 50.2%, K's per 9 innings, 16.66, batting average faced, .126, OPS allowed .358, and FIP, .78. I had to look up what FIP is since I am not a baseball nerd so I googled it and the majority of the results said it was “feline infectious peritonitis” so you know Kimbrel was good last year.

 

The pitching needs to be there, that is the biggest factor for how far this Braves team can go. Their offense is not all that strong so they can not afford to let up a lot of runs. One guy I expect big things from is Jason Heyward whom for some reason is slated to bat 2^nd in the order despite having more power and a lower average than Justin Upton behind him. If they are smart they will swap the two around in the order soon because they need Heyward to drive in some runs this year so they don't have to rely too heavily on Freddie Freeman, BJ Upton and Dan Uggla. Freeman can be a solid option but he is no stud cleanup hitter while BJ Upton and Dan Uggla are just constantly disappointing. Uggla batted a solid .220 last year with 53 more strikeouts than hits. While BJ Upton batted .246 with 28 more strikeouts than hits. That is not a good recipe for runs.

 

They need some offensive help or no pitching staff can save them. Third place in this division feels about right but don't count them out of a wild card spot.

 

The Rest: Miami Marlins, New York Mets

 

Yuck, yuck and more yuck. Where should we start? The Mets are down their top two pitchers from a year ago and are down to just one solid bat and that's only if David Wright can stay healthy.

 

The Marlins are in the same boat but I am putting them dead last in this division for one reason. Because they have a player who changed his name from Mike to Giancarlo and then went on to play for the USA team in the World Baseball Classic. How can you give a guy who abandons his American heritage, the nod to play for this country? Is there a more American name than Mike? It sure as shit isn't Giancarlo. Mike Stanton is a good ball player. Giancarlo Stanton can enjoy last place.

 

mlz

Saturday, March 30, 2013