Game 1 Sunday, May 5, 1pm, ABC

Things seem to have broke in Memphis’ favor. After becoming the first team to lose the first two games in a series only to win the next four by 10+ points per game, the Grizz get the short handed Thunder. Kevin Durant will not go down easily but do the Thunder have enough offense to compete without Russ Westbrook?

Memphis is favored. That is all you need to know about how much the Thunder value Russell Westbrook. The top seeded Thunder are even money to advance. Suddenly I have gone from thinking they are incredibly overrated to having a ton of value. Currently they are +225 to win the West, yet no matter who they play they will have the best player in the series. In years past we have seen the best player in any given series end up winning. This year could be different sure, nobody has a crystal ball, and the Spurs are the better team, but the Thunder have the best player in the West without a doubt, and +225 has a lot of value.

Regardless...

The Bet:

Memphis +550 to win the West

This is the first year in the past three in which I did not get in on Memphis at 20-1 or more to win the title. I am not saying that guarantees them a title but it sure as shit does not hurt. In realistic terms they get the #1 seed at exactly half strength and then a Spurs team that they match up well against. 5.5-1 is a gift. Seeing as to how they are favored in this series they would need to be roughly 4-1 against the Spurs to negate their current value. If they are 4-1 to beat the Spurs I will be living a rather tight lifestyle for a few weeks while I nervously watch my life savings ride. The odds on them winning the West are far better than their realistic odds. They should beat this OKC team and they should beat the Spurs. Again 5.5-1 is a gift at this point.

Bonus Bets:

Memphis +135 to win Game 1

They are not going to fuck around in this series. But OKC could come out in Game 1 and ride the crowd. So this is a bit of a scary bet but at +135 for a team that is favored in the series it’s a great value bet.

More importantly if you want to bet Memphis to win the series and believe in Vegas, then wait for Memphis to lose Game 1 and then bet them when the odds shift even more so in their favor. But if it were my money I would bet Memphis to win not only the series now but Game 1 since the series price will drop dramatically after a road victory.

mlz

Sunday, May 5, 2013