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STP 400 at Kansas

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This is going to be one fast track this week. Kansas has been repaved with an asphalt surface and has added progressive banking instead of the uniform 15 degrees they had prior. The progressive banking should create more racing lines, so there should be room to pass. All of those thing plus these new rocket ship Gen 6 cars are going to create some fast speeds and fun racing at Kansas Motor Speedway.

The only downside to these new pave jobs, it seems to create more parody amongst the cars, which typically means it is harder to pass. But that was one of the reasons they created the Gen 6 car, and this will be a true test to see how well it worked.

Matt Kenseth raced himself to the pole. He has found quite a bit of success here, with a win and eight top 10s in 14 races. He started off poorly at this track but he has been amongst the best recently here. He has finished 4th and 6th in this race the past two years.

Matt is really good as these tracks. These 1.5 mile he typically excels at. He is going to start in clean air and should shoot out to a lead after battling into turn one. That being said he is 6-1 and that is simply not interesting to me. I think he has at worst a top 10 in him but 6-1 to win is just too low to waste money on.

That takes out Kyle Busch as well and while we are at it who the hell wants to bet Carl Edwards at +750? Not me, not you, not anybody. So let’s start with the guy with the 4th best odds, yes 4th best for him.

Jimmie Johnson 8-1

Anytime Jimmie Johnson has the 4th best odds, Vegas fucked up. Especially on a week in which one of his crew mates brothers was the MIT cop killed in the shootout. That is now extra motivation for the #48 team. He is starting a bit back in the pack (21st) but nobody will be surprised when he jumps up to the top 5 in the first 5-10 laps. Jimmie is my pick to win this week, you forced my hand Vegas.

Clint Bowyer 15-1

What great value for Bower. This is his hometown track, he has never won here before, yet if you ask him he will tell you there is no where he wants to win more. He has been far from great at this place before, but he has had a chance to win here and came up just short. Clint is going to go all out to win this race, 15-1 is a gift.

Aric Almirola 40-1

Here is a good long shot bet. Almirola is coming off a top 10 at Texas. This week he starts 6th and especially if the new pave does create parody once again he will be in it at the end. He has a fast car again this week and he does in fact have a shot.

Juan Pablo Montoya 100-1

Yes I am picking JPM. I know, he will probably wreck, or blow up, or wreck and take out the pace car, or anything. He is in the Tyson zone. There is nothing that could happen to him on the race track that would surprise me. Including winning this week. He had the fastest car in first practice and has a whole new pit crew for this race. Maybe the inexperience will hurt, maybe they needed a shakeup, regardless 100-1 for a fast car is worth it.


Saturday, April 20, 2013

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