Plain and simple the bet worth making is Auburn +310.

 

With the final BCS National Title game kicking off in a couple hours, I just wanted to get it out there that there is free money to be won tonight. While the Seminoles have cruised through this season leading the nation in both points for (53.0) and points against (10.7). But who have they really played? They had four matchups against opponents that were ranked at the time; vs #25 Maryland, @ #3 Clemson, vs #7 Miami, and #20 Duke on a neutral field. The only respectable team on that list is Clemson and they were a fraud team that took a 20 minute bus ride into the stadium as their WWF introduction... of course they were getting blown out. All that amounts to the worst strength of schedule for any team to reach the title game the last 10 years. The three teams with the next worst SOS all lost to SEC opponents by at least a 14 point margin. Also a fun stat: In the past 10 seasons there have been three title games that pitted an undefeated team against a 1 loss team and all three times the 1 loss team won by at least 20 points. So maybe they have the Heisman winner and the hype surrounding them, but they haven’t trailed in a game since September and Jameis Winston has never seen anything like the Auburn Tigers. Nick Marshall and Tre Mason are going to punch the ‘Noles in the mouth and I’m not sure they will know how to react. One last thing, Gus Malzahn is a great coach and a tricky coach. I would be shocked if we didn’t see at least one trick play out of Auburn tonight.

So do yourself a favor and bet the Auburn moneyline at +310 as the public continues to ride Winston and the empty hype that is Florida State and don’t bet the over whatever you do 75% of total money is coming in on the over. We might see Auburn roll tonight.

mlz

Monday, January 6, 2013