Who would have thought we would be watching a #7 seed playing a #8 seed on this final Monday of the season. This years tournament has certainly delivered and I would expect nothing less from tonights game.

Best Bets

Under 135

Most of these title games start off with both teams struggling with nerves and getting off to slow starts. 135 for this one seems really high to me. UConn’s last two games against MSU and Florida never hit 120 and while Kentucky has played in close games slightly over 140 they are filled with young kids that might really struggle early on in this game. I know it isn’t the most fun bet, but under should always be the bet in these college title games.

Teaser:

Uconn +9.5

Under 142

Uconn Women PK

I am not sure that there is a way this loses. Maybe if the UConn men win and the UConn women get too drunk rooting for them?

Uconn +130

While it does scare me a bit, I have grown more confident in UConn as the day has progressed. I just feel like this game gets off to a rocky start, shades of the Kemba Walker championship game, and takes a while to get going. But I also feel as though UConn has the experience to get it going before the kids at Kentucky can. I think UConn wins the first half despite being +1.5 and I think they close strong behind Shabazz raising his draft stock even further. It feels to me that there is a far better chance of UConn blowing out the Wildcats than the other way around. If you are a Wildcats fan you can lean on the “we will beat them inside” argument but go ask MSU (6pts in the paint, 4 second chance points, and just 6 offensive rebounds) and Florida (UConn scored 26 points in the paint in the 2H while Florida scored 24 in the game) fans how that worked out for them. Yes Florida, the same team that for the most part dominated Kentucky this season. The experience on this Huskies team is going to be too much to overcome for the young Wildcats team. If Kentucky would actually pull together and play again next year like that Noah/Horford Gators team, they might start off the season as -150 favorites to win next years championship. But this year it’s all UConn, bet their moneyline and you might not even have to sweat it out.

mlz

Monday, April 7, 2014