Somehow we are approaching the halfway mark of the 2014 season already. It has without a doubt flown by and will continue doing so because I, like many others, just can't wait for Sunday to get here. While we may be lacking some marquee matchups this week, we have several games that should be great to watch. 

Falcons +3.5 vs Lions *In London

AP3 - Lions

Big Country - Lions

This isn't really a home game for ATL, they are playing in London.  I just can't trust this Falcons defense.

 

MLZ - Lions

Lock Alert 

It's tradition to give London garbage games which means Matty Ice and that Falcons are going to continue to suck on defense and look sluggish on offense. The Lions defense has held it's own while the offense has struggled to put up points without Calvin Johnson playing. However if Calvin Johnson can suit up this might be over before 10am EST. 

Bucs -2.5 vs Vikings

 

AP3 - Bucs

 

Big Country - Bucs

I actually like a lot of the individual players in the Bucs, they just haven't seemed to get it together.  But I think talent overcomes here and they take care of the Viks. 

 

 

MLZ - Bucs

Lock Alert

I was one of the first ones to abandon the Bucs bandwagon at the beginning of the year but they have looked so pitiful thus far that they actually seem underrated to me. While I'll probably look back at it and laugh, I just put some money on them to win that division at 75-1. They had a bye week last week to get healthy and get their shit together and now have games vs Minn, @Cle, vs Atl, and @Wash coming up. They could very easily be 5-5 in a division in which eight wins could very well lock up that division. Don't get me wrong, the Bucs suck but 75-1 is far too high they should come out looking like a different team this week otherwise Lovie Smith's seat is going to be awfully warm. 

Patriots -6 vs Bears

 

AP3 - Bears

 

 

Big Country - Bears

Lock Alert

The Patriots aren't good, and this is a must win game for the Bears. 

 

 

 

 

Chiefs -7 vs Rams

 

AP3 - Chiefs

Big Country - Rams 

The Rams are going to ride through last weeks huge win for another upset over an overrated Chiefs team. 

 

 

MLZ - Rams

Outside of the obvious let down game in week 1 against the Titans the Chiefs have looked really good. They whooped the Dolphins in Miami and then put the beatdown on the Patriots at home the following week. Even in their losses they held their own, narrowly losing to the Broncos in Denver and the 49ers in San Francisco. Last week they came off their bye week and took down one of the publics favorites the Chargers in San Diego. Meanwhile the Rams are coming off of what will undoubtedly be their best win of the season. With two teams staring down the barrel of a let down game, take the points and bet the under. Or be smart and tease the Chiefs down to -1 with under 50. 

 

Panthers +5 vs Seahawks 

 

AP3 - Seahawks

Big Country - Seahawks

Seattle isn't going to lose two in a row.  They come out and redeem themselves with a huge win over the Panthers. 

 

MLZ - Panthers

Both of these teams were left scratching their heads last week. The Panthers got rolled by the Packers while the Seahawks got shocked by the Rams. The pressure is certainly on the Seahawks to come out and perform to the best of their ability but one thing I have noticed is that the kind of run the Seahawks are on doesn't just end with a trade of your best wide receiver. It takes one good hard faught battle and a close win to get everyone on the same page. With the Panthers defense being embarassed of late they are going to come out and try and beat Seattle up, don't think they have forgotten about last season and how they really tested the eventual Super Bowl Champs. The Panthers are going to believe that they can win this game and the Seahawks are lacking confidence so the Panthers are going to cover but this is going to be the game that breaks the Seahawks out of their slump. 

Jets -3 vs Bills

 

AP3 - Bills

 

 

Big Country - Bills 

The Bills defense is for real.  They are going to cause Geno fits. 

 

 

MLZ - Bills

Lock Alert 

What the hell is going on? Why is it that when I look up the lines every week I am baffled by the Jets line? The Jets are 1-5-1 ATS this year yet Vegas continues to overvalue them for reasons unknown to me. Maybe they just hope the Jets are a public team and that's why these lines are skewed in their favor but they don't even seem close to me. Not that preseason means anything but add that in and they are 2-8-1 ATS in 2014. Just bet against the Jets until something drastic changes and thank me later because this week should be Bills -3 not the other way around. I would even consider laying 6.5 with the Bills nevermind getting 3. 

 

 

Jags +6 vs Dolphins

 

AP3 - Dolphins

MLZ - Jags

Lock Alert 

Only two games this week have a wider margin of public bets than this one. The Dolphins are currently raking in 67% of the bets being placed and maybe it's for good reason. The Dolphins might actually be good and the Jags can't possibly win back to back games right? Luckily they don't have to do anything other than lose by less than six. For the record, in the last three weeks the Jaguars defense has only allowed 39 points. They have been competitive of late and had a chance to win each of the last three weeks. Meanwhile Miami is riding a bit high, especially in the public's eyes and this interstate battle should be a lot closer than people seem to think. 

 

 

Titans +3 vs Texans

 

AP3 - Texans

 

 

Big Country - Texans

Lock Alert

Watt and the Texans D versus a rookie 6th rd pick?  Love it. 

 

MLZ - Titans

Lock Alert 

I am feeling about as confident as I have ever been for a pick'em week and this is another one where I feel like I am ahead of the curve. The 72% of people betting the Texans is second to just the Colts as far as percentage of bets being placed on one team. The Titans have sucked for sure, but now they hand the reigns over to rookie Zach Mettenberger who has everything to prove and will have to do battle with JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, which is no party but are we really ready to say it's safe to lay three points with Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road? Vegas doesn't lose for a reason and 72% of people typically don't win any one game. Look for the Titans to edge the Texans or at the very least lose a game that has a final score of 17-15 or something weird like that. 

 

 

Bengals +1 vs Ravens

 

AP3 - Ravens

Big Country - Ravens 

I love betting against Andy Dalton in big games 

 

MLZ - Ravens

The Ravens are playing like a legit contender and the Bengals haven't won in a month. Common sense would tell me to take the Bengals to break out of the slump with a big divisional win, but the Ravens already tasted defeat against this Bengals team in Week 1 at home so they are going to come out pissed off. The only thing that scares me off of locking this game up is that the Ravens wins have come against the likes of the Steelers, Browns, Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons. So maybe we don't overreact to how well the Ravens have looked, but this game should go a long way to telling us how good the Ravens might be and this might be the only time we get to see the Ravens tested because there's a chance they play just one legit playoff team all season, which they lost @ Indy, two if you count whoever wins the NFC South but why bother doing that. Best case scenario is they close the season with three games against playoff competition. Just keep that in mind for the first round of the playoffs. 

 

 

Cardinals -1 vs Eagles 

 

AP3 - Eagles

 

 

Big Country - Cardinals

They are the best team in the West right now.    

 

MLZ - Cardinals

Lock Alert

Vegas having no love for the Cardinals this season is now becoming a trend. Are the Eagles are two points better than the Cardinals? Just run down their schedules... the Cardinals have beaten the Chargers, 49ers, and Redskins at home as well as the Giants and Raiders on the road. Their lone loss came @ Denver. Keep in mind that they were without their starting QB for three of the six weeks and they were without their backup QB for a portion of those games. They hung with the Broncos in Denver for 45 minutes while playig with their third string QB yet nobody wants to give them any love. If Carson Palmer plays in that Broncos game, the Cardinals may have won outright but at the very least would have earned the publics respect. Luckily for us gambling degenerates, that didn't happen because the Eagles have beaten the Jags, Redskins, Rams and Giants at home as well as the Colts on the road when they were playing their worst football and their lone loss came at the hands of the 49ers where their offense looked as bad as an offense can look. The Eagles defense has made plays to keep win/keep them in games but that won't last forever because they have been more lucky than good. I don't know if the Cardinals have a statement game in them, they seem more like a grind out every week type of team but keep your eyes on them and all their future odds because that is a solid football team unlike the shaky Eagles. 

 

 

Steelers +3 vs Colts

 

AP3 - Colts

Lock Alert

 

 

Big Country - Colts

 

Andrew Luck is going to feast on this Steelers secondary 

 

MLZ - Colts

I don't love this play, it just feels too obvious. This feels like the type of game that will either have the Colts up 40-0 at the half or will make Vegas a LOT of money. I think the 75% of people betting the Colts at -3 would also probably bet the Colts at -6 so this line just feels fishy to me. I probably stuck a fork in the Steelers far earlier than I should have, but I'm rolling with Andrew Luck in this one. If I'm wrong I'm going to have to revisit this Steelers team because I really want to side with Vegas, bet the Steelers moneyline and laugh at the public. 

 

Browns -7 vs Raiders

 

AP3 - Raiders

Big Country - Raiders

Upset Alert!!!!

Hoyer sucks, and Carr is going to break through 

 

 

MLZ - Raiders

Did everyone not learn their lesson last week? You can't be laying points with the Browns. Last week it was three on the road and this week it's seven at home. It didn't make sense last week... and they lost 24-6... and it doesn't make sense to me this week either despite the Raiders being the Raiders. I'll happilly take the touchdown head start against an unproven Browns team that quite possibly hasn't played anyone that is anywhere near good yet, not that the Raiders are good but the Browns just seem to be overrated for some reason. 

 

 

Saints -2 vs Packers 

 

AP3 - Packers

Lock Alert!

 

 

Big Country - Packers

 

Drew Brees is not the Drew Brees I fell in love with 

 

MLZ - Packers

Lock Alert

This is another "What the hell is going on" type of line. It feels like Vegas made this line thinking this is the Saints season on the line, but they aren't factoring in how bad the NFC South is. The Saints could lose this game and have their odds to win the division get better. The Packers aren't quite a top tier team but to be underdogs to the Saints is a slap in the face of Aaron Rodgers, I don't care if it's in New Orleans. This isn't the same Saints team we are accustomed to seeing. The Saints just aren't good this year. They give the ball away far too much and just don't have the talent around Brees that they used to. The Packers are several tiers above the Saints and while part of me thinks the Saints might come out thinking their season is on the line, they know deep down that they could lose the next four and not be out of the mix to win that division. 

 

Cowboys -10 vs Redskins

 

AP3 - Redskins

 

 

Big Country - Redskins 

 

The spread is just too big 

 

 

MLZ - Redskins

Who the hell knows who will be playing QB for the Skins this week, regardless this is too many points. The Cowboys/Redskins have too much of a rich history to lay double digits. Since Romo became the Cowboys starting QB in 2006, the Cowboys are 11-5 against the Redskins with a +22 point differential. That's 16 games and just a +22, while there have been a couple lopsided matchups only three times in those sixteen contests have the Cowboys won by more than 10 points. Dallas is just too due to slip up and with a divisional rival opposite them this may be the week they slip. I don't think they lose this game but -10 just feels like too many points to lay. 

 

Year to date:

AP3 

52-51-4 Overall 

1-6 Upset Alert

3-6 Lock Alert

Big Country 

53-50-4 Overall

1-5 Upset Alert 

5-6-1 Lock Alert

MLZ 

52-51-4 Overall

0-3 Upset Alert

6-11-1 Lock Alert 

Saturday, October 25, 2014