With the Vikings, Steelers, Bucs, and Redskins on a bye, we have a lot of good games o the Week 5 slate. I'm counting eight good games. That's not including the Giants and Eagles, which should be close but sloppy. After Cleveland's win Thursday night AP3 and I are dead even, overall, for the year. Let's get to the rest of this weeks picks.
* Home teams in bold.
AP3
Kansas City -3 over Tennessee
Man for gambling purposes the line feels easier to pick with Jake Locker injured, but for entertainment reasons I wish he were playing because this would have been a great game.
Baltimore +3 over Miami
I don't know what to make of either of these teams. I feel like Harbaugh is an awful coach, but Miami is banged up on a short week. I'm taking the points but I don't love it.
St. Louis -11.5 over Jacksonville
Ugh. Really hate this one. St. Louis is not a good football team, but I don't think the Jaguars can even score 11.5 points.
Cincinnati -1.5 over New England
Something doesn't smell right here. The Patriots just had a big win on the road in Atlanta, and the Browns just lost to Cleveland. I think the Patriots losing Wilfork for the season does too much damage to the team and they will struggle to slow down the running game in their firsr game without him.
Seattle -2.5 over Indianapolis
Two tough back to back 1 pm road games for the Seahawks. I think they pull it out and prove that they are clearly the class of the NFC despite a sub-par performance last week.
Green Bay -7 over Detroit
At first I thought it was too many points, but then I remembered that the Packers had 2 weeks to prepare and that the last time that we saw Aaron Rodgers, he was mighty pissed.
New Orleans PK over Chicago
Tough road game for the Saints, but as I have previously stated and will continue to say: Fuck thr Bears.
NY Giants -2 over Philadelphia
Do or die game here for Tom Coughlin. At home against a team that can't stop anyone. I'm rooting for yah Philly!
Carolina -1.5 over Arizona
14 days to prepare for Carson Palmer while you have one of the better defenses in the NFL? Yes please.
Dallas +7.5 over Denver
Upset Alert!
People are all about the Broncos and their speed and efficiency. Look for the Cowboys to slow it down pounding the ball with DeMarco Murray and keeping Peyton off of the field.
San Francisco -7 over Houston
10 days to prepare for a Houston team that is ready to tar and feather its head coach and starting quarterback.
San Diego -4.5 over Oakland
Hopefully it's the Matt Flynn show again, because if Pryor plays I think the Raiders could steal this one. Also, 11:35 NFL? Really? Why couldn't we just play this Saturday.
Atlanta -10 over New York Jets
Geno Smith on national TV should be just as good as everyone is expecting.
Overall Record
30-31-3
Lock Alert Record 2-4-1
Moneyline Special Record 2-2
Saturday, October 5, 2013
MLZ
Kansas City -3 over Tennessee
Lock Alert
Do you really think three points is enough to allow Ryan Fitzpatrick to cover? Hell no.
Miami -3 over Baltimore
John Harbaugh may be one of the worst head coaches to ever win a Super Bowl. The Ravens ran the ball for the first time in the second half about midway through the fourth quarter last Sunday. Instead of utilizing one of the best running backs in the NFL, he continues to live and die with Joe Flacco.
St. Louis -11.5 Jacksonville
With Justin Blackmon coming back for the Jaguars they actually have a playmaker. But being his first week back off of suspension and especially since it's on the road I'm taking the Rams in another blowout of the Jags.
New England +1.5 over Cincinnati
Last week I took the Falcons to beat the Pats on here then changed my pick everywhere else about an hour before kickoff. I don't know why but something in me randomly changed before the game. The Pats certainly aren't the Broncos but they get the job done. The Begnals might end up being remembered as a worse division winner than the 7-9 Seahawks from a few years ago. The Pats are going to get another big road win.
Seattle -2.5 over Indianapolis
Lock Alert
Even though it took quite the comeback, I would have taken Seattle over Houston 10/10 with Seattle being -2.5 last week and I'd do the same with this game this week. That line isn't high enough, it should at least be three after seeing last weeks game. Seattle is too good to lose to an AFC South team.
Green Bay -7 over Detroit
Everytime these teams get it together it's the same ol' song and dance. The line comes out and seems to be too high so everyone talks themselves into the Lions, since they both have good offenses. Then Green Bay wins a shootout by 10+ points. It's just science at this point.
New Orleans PK over Chicago
The Saints aren't the same team on the road as they are at home and Chicago is due for a bounce back week, but I can't take Jay Cutler again, especially not in a big game against a potentially great team.
NY Giants -2 over Philadelphia
This has to be the game the Giants have. They are absolutely awful, but their only hope to win a couple is against divisional rivals.
Carolina -1.5 over Arizona
Traditionally when you hear about these two teams playing you aren't that excited, but this week I am. This is going to be a good game. While that Cardinals secondary is going to make it awfully difficult for the Panthers to move the ball, two weeks to prepare for this one should make the difference.
Dallas +7.5 over Denver
Upset Alert!
This is going to be the game of the week. Denver is due for an off week and Dallas' offense is very effecient at home. They will need some bounces to go their way but I think they can pound Murray and get enough big plays out of Dez Bryant to pull off the upset.
San Francisco -7 over Houston
The 49ers are in the process of finding themselves and rebuilding their image. Houston is not good and trending downward after choking the past few weeks.
San Diego -4.5 over Oakland
No McFadden no chance.
Atlanta -10 over NY Jets
Does anyone really think this awful Jets team can keep this game close? After last weeks tough home loss to the Patriots, the Falcons are going to blow this one open early.
Overall Record
30-31-3
Lock Alert Record 6-7
Moneyline Special Record 4-3
Saturday, October 5, 2013
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