MLZ 

Buffalo +3.5 over Baltimore 

Houston is not good so that win by the Ravens last week feels a bit hollow to me. I think this hungry Bills defense is going to look to step it up at home after having a rough go at it last week against the Jets. They will show up and get after Flacco. 

 

Arizona +3.5 over Tampa Bay

 

Moneyline Special 

Tampa Bay sucks. Now they will be looking to rookie QB Mike Glennon to take over the show. While we have seen young QB's come in and surprise us in their first start but I'll take my chances with Patrick Peterson and the Honeybadger. 

Minnesota -1.5 over Pittsburgh 

 

I would not recommend betting on this game or even watching it. It's going to be sloppy and low scoring. Gun to my head I'll take Adrian Peterson and lay the points. Do yourself a favor and stay away from this one. 

Kansas City -4.5  over NY Giants

Lock Alert 

Giants suck. Some people are still holding on to some hope that they will snap out of it, but they aren't going to this year. They are headed for a top 5 draft pick. The Chiefs might replicate what Carolina did last week. 

 

Indianapolis -9.5 over Jacksonville 

I just can't bring myself to take Jacksonville again before Justin Blackmon is back. 

 

Seattle -2.5 over Houston 

I hesitated with this pick for a second or two. Seattle isn't the same team on the road as they are at home. Then I remembered Houston sucks. 

Cincinnati -4.5 over Cleveland 

 

Typically these games are rather tight, but I think Cincy is due for a big performance. 

Chicago +3.5 over Detroit 

Moneyline Special 

Lock Alert 

I'm doubling down on this one. Chicago is a much better team provided they don't shoot themselves in the foot. 

 

Tennessee -4.5 over NY Jets 

 

The Titans might be pretty good. The Jets aren't. 

Oakland +2.5 over Washington 

 

Moneyline Special 

While you won't get any great odds on a moneyline play, there is no need to take the 2.5 points. In fact if you can find an alt line with better value play that because this Redskins team is atrocious. RG3 isn't ready and is lacking in confidence and the defense is getting shredded. It would appear that Pryor will be healthy enough to get the start for Oakland so they should be able to take care of this east coast team playing on the west coast. 

Denver -10.5 over Philadelphia

 

Denver looks so good they might go undefeated... against the spread. 

 

Dallas -1.5 over San Diego 

 

Look for a big game for the Romo to Bryant connection. San Diego should hand around like they have all season, but ultimately Dallas is the better team that will get this win. 

Atlanta +.5 over New England 

 

Matt Ryan is 34-7 at home since his NFL career began back in 2008. Now they sit at 1-2, two games behind the Saints for the lead in the division. They need this win more than the Patriots do. While the Pats have started off 3-0, they have not looked like a 3-0 team. The Falcons should be able to throw the ball in this game and with Tom Brady maybe showing some signs of aging, the Falcons should win this one. 

New Orleans -6.5 over Miami

 

This is a tough line. The Saints haven't exactly set the world on fire this year, but at home they are tough to beat. Then again Miami has made a living on the road, so I am sort of torn. I'd lay the points here because they are at home and because I trust Drew Brees far more than Ryan Tannehill, especially on Monday night. 

Overall Record 21-25-3
Lock Alert Record 5-6

Moneyline Special Record 3-1

 

mlz

Saturday, September 28, 2013