The season is winding down. There are under 10 games left for each team which means every game is of the utmost importance. There are several close battles including the Lakers trying to actually make the playoffs.

 

East

 

Knicks, Pacers for the #2 seed

 

These are two of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. With the Knicks having won nine straight and the Pacers winning their past five. Currently they are tied in the standings but the Knicks have two games in hand on the Pacers.

 

Most likely this battle will come down to Sunday, April 14, where the teams will meet in New York. The Pacers lead the season series 2-1 so if they can go into MSG and grab a third win in four games vs the Knicks this year they will likely earn the #2 seed. However the Pacers seem to have a tougher remaining schedule than the Knicks, thought it is fairly close.

 

The Pacers have the Thunder at home Friday, then @ Washington Saturday, then vs Cleveland, vs Brooklyn, @ New York, and an @ Boston, vs Philadelphia back to back to close.

 

The Knicks go to Atlanta tonight, vs Milwaukee Friday, @OKC Sunday, and vs Washington, @ Chicago, @ Cleveland, vs Indiana, @ Charlotte, vs Atlanta.

 

Neither schedule is easy but the back to backs in my opinion give the nod to Indiana as the tougher schedule. But the Pacers are the superior team. The are bigger stronger and deeper than the Knicks. They will be relying on Melo from here on out. The Pacers play as a team and will get the nod as the #2 seed.

 

The real question is why would either of them want the #2 seed? Would you rather play the Celtics or the Hawks? I will take Atlanta eleven times out of ten. Though I think the Pacers would match up much better with the Celtics than the Knicks do, but everyone likes their match ups against Atlanta. That all being said the Bulls are in the #6 hole. But there are two possibilities now since I have ruled out a Rose return this season in my mind. Either you get Atlanta because Chicago wakes up a bit and plays to the level they should be playing. Or they are really that out of it that they can't even beat the Hawks. Which means they will be a walk over in the first round.

 

Prediction: Pacers get the #2 seed, Knicks get the better seed.

 

Hawks, Bulls for the #5 seed

 

I was going to include Brooklyn and call it a race for the #4 seed but let's be honest neither of these two teams has what it takes to get home court advantage in the first round. To be honest I am surprised Brooklyn does, someone has to but with the dead legs of the Bulls and the no leadership, low talent level Atlanta Hawks they aren't going to really be pressed.

 

The Hawks have a rather large lead for the games remaining. They hold a two game lead in the win column but Chicago has those two games in hand. Although I'm not too sure they are happy about that.

 

The Hawks draw the 76ers and the Knicks twice to go along with the Spurs, Bucks, and Raptors. That includes two back to backs.

 

Of the Bulls nine remaining games only Brooklyn and the Knicks are playoff teams, not including Miami who will be resting their guys heading into the playoffs. That means Orlando and Toronto twice, Washington and the Pistons.

 

The winner of this battle draws the Nets in round one the loser gets either the Knicks or Pacers so it is safe to say these two teams will go down swinging trying for the #5 seed.

 

Prediction: The Bulls get their shit back together and clean up this easy schedule enough to beat the Hawks, but not enough to ruin AP3's under Bulls wins bet.

 

 

Celtics, Bucks for the #7 seed

 

This race is down to just 1.5 games with the Bucks closing the gap despite not playing all that well lately. The Celtics are just trying to survive injury and remain healthy enough to make the playoffs. The problem both of these teams face. If you lose this race you draw Miami in round one.

 

The Celts play five of eight at home and five of eight against weak competition. Only the Heat, Nets, and Pacers pose potential bumps in the road and that's only if Miami doesn't rest it's starters.

 

The Bucks own the game in hand but they have six of their remaining nine on the road and vs far superior competition than the Celtics draw.

 

Prediction: The Celtics are a shell of themselves right now but with such a favorable schedule and the heart of a champion they won't let themselves fall to the #8 seed.

 

West

 

Spurs, Thunder for the #1 seed

 

Tomorrow night this will probably be decided. The Spurs currently lead the season series 2-1 but will travel to OKC for the final match up of the year between the two. The Spurs hold a one game lead for the top seed in the west and the easier schedule. With out Ginobili for a few weeks and the Spurs resting starters their top focus isn't the top seed.

 

Prediction: Thunder win tomorrow and get the top seed. Which is really bad news for Lakers fans, and Jazz fans while we are at it.

 

Nuggets, Grizzlies for the #3 seed

 

I am throwing the Clippers into the #4 seed. I don't see them catching either of these teams even though they are within shouting distance. Memphis has rattled off three straight while Denver has been rising up the standings since the turn of the new year. They sit tied in the standings at 50-24. With the Clips owning a division title they will be the #4 seed. So the winner of this race will likely jump to the #3 seed from the #5 seed. That is the difference between being on the road against the Clippers or at home for the Warriors in round one.

 

Denver seems to have the inside track since only one of their remaining eight games comes against a team seeded higher than 7^th in their conference (the Spurs). The rest are vs mediocre teams at best. Just the kind of teams they dominate.

 

The Grizzlies schedule is much tougher and it almost seems like they are ready for the playoffs to start now and don't care who they play. They haven't looked great as of late but they seem to just be biding their time until the games really begin to matter. With that being said...

 

Prediction: Denver wins this by at least two games when it is all said and done.

 

 

Warriors, Rockets for the #6 seed

 

Houston is going to see a lot of road games, while Golden State has a lot of home games. This one is fairly easy despite just the one game separating the two teams.

 

Houston is a bit banged up while Golden State seems more hungry.

 

Prediction: Scheduling makes this fairly easy. Golden State grabs the #6 seed and dodges the Spurs/Thunder.

 

 

Jazz, Lakers for the #8 seed

 

These two teams are deadlocked for the #8 seed in the west right now with 39-36 records.

 

Utah tried to make it easy on LA when they went 3-12 from February 23 to March 24. Since then they have won five straight while scoring over 103ppg. They seem to be righting the ship just in the nick of time.

 

They do draw some tough competition in their remaining seven games. They play Denver at home tonight, New Orleans at home Friday then @ GS, vs OKC, a Friday/Monday home and home with Minnesota, then @ Memphis to close out the year.

 

Luckily for the Lakers, six of their seven remaining games come at Staples Center where they have a 24-12 home record (Note: one of those is @ LAC.) The problem is they are missing Steve Nash at least day to day.

 

Outside of their last win against Dallas by 20, they have been playing close games even against the weakest of opponents. Not including that Dallas game they have only won their games by an average of 5.78 points (wins vs Atl, @NO, vs Tor in OT, vs Chicago, @ Indiana, vs Sac, @ Minn, and @ Sac). Meanwhile in that stretch they have lost @ OKC, @ Atl, @ Phx, vs Wash, @ GS, and @ Mil. Far from sexy. They seem to be playing to their level of competition at times and seem to completely over matched at others.

 

Prediction: With all the pressure on them and with Utah playing well and having a fairly easy schedule the Lakers are going to miss the playoffs. Without World Peace they can't achieve success.

 

mlz

Wednesday, April 3, 2013