Most people interested in this fight know enough about Mayweather for me to go into detail, but not Canelo. For instance Canelo got his nickname because of his red hair. Basically canelo means cinnamon in Spanish. Canelo started fighting at age 13, while looking up to his older brother. At 15 he became Mexico’s junior boxing champion. In those two years he won 20 fights. Due to a lack of worthy opponents he turned pro at just 15 years old.

In his first 19 months as a professional fighter he knocked out 11 of his 13 documented opponents, obviously much older, more experienced fighters. Supposedly he also fought and knocked out another 10 opponents in smaller venues. But they were so poorly documented that it isn’t worth the trouble of going back to fix his record. While it seems a bit iffy, it makes sense when you are fighting at 15 years old in Mexico. Plus despite those ten extra wins not being counted, he is exactly where he wants to be, fighting the best pound for pound fighter on the planet.

In 2006 he beat current IBF Lightweight Champion Miguel Vazquez in just his third fight (and again in a rematch in 2008). The lone blemish on his record, a draw against Jorge Juarez, came in just his 5th professional fight back when he was only 16 years old. In 2010 he beat Miguel Cotto on the undercard of Mayweather vs Mosley. In his most recent bout he handed Austin Trout his first loss as a professional in a unanimous decision. Now he looks to do the same against Mayweather.

Why Mayweather will win:

His strategy. Mayweather is as quick as they come. He can dance around and dodge punches while stepping up to deliver some blows when he deems necessary. He is a very careful fighter that may lack knockout power, but his strategy isn’t to knock guys out, but more so to point them to death and using his unmatchable stamina. He also has the experience of fighting in big fights against big time opponents, while Alvarez is still young.

Why Canelo will win:

Destiny. It’s very obvious that Canelo just loves boxing. He started at a young age and fought far more often than most guys would. He is really a monster. He has the build of a middleweight and has made guys look tiny in the ring. While Mayweather has plenty of experience fighting at this weight, he is making the step up in class for this battle. He could easily be caught off guard by the power Canelo possesses. Yes he lacks the experience of Mayweather, but this kid has thought about this since he was little. At 36 years old Mayweather only has so many fights left in him, this fight tonight could be a passing of the torch from one great to the next big thing. This 23 year old kid could be the face of boxing for the next 15 years if he can pull this one out.

Best Bets:

Mayweather to win by decision -200

If you think Money is going to remain undefeated, then bet him to win by decision. He doesn’t really knock guys out anymore, and at 36 years old he isn’t exactly getting stronger. Plus he is stepping up in weight class and facing a load of a human being that can absorb any punch Mayweather throws. If he is going to win he is going to win via decision and that’s worth skipping his -300 money line for the -200 decision line.

Canelo wins by KO, TKO, or DQ +400

I wouldn’t solely bet this but it feels like a fun one to me. While Mayweather is tough to corner and tough to actually hit, Canelo has more than enough power to put him on his ass for a ten count. Plus if he can get some good body shots in early it could take the legs out from under Floyd allowing Canelo to pound on him.

Draw 18-1

Possibly the most boring potential outcome, but at 18-1 you can’t pass it up. Little note, a Draw has dropped from 28-1 all the way to 18-1, maybe somebody knows something. Either way great odds.

My Pick:

Canelo +240

Call it a hunch but my prediction is Canelo wins via knockout in the 9th round, for the record that is going off at 35-1. But the best bet of all is just to take Canelo +240 to win. While I could see him knocking Mayweather out I could also see the confetti raining down on him after winning a split decision and accomplishing his dream of being the face of boxing for the next decade.

mlz

Saturday, September 14, 2013