Big spread in the first game. Louisville is -10.5 vs the Cinderella team Wichita State. It seems like nobody believes in the underdog Shockers, but that may be rightfully so given how good Louisville has looked.

Lousville -10.5 vs Wichita State 6:09pm

 

The case for Louisville:

 

Louisville has rolled their way to the Final Four. They have won their games by an average of 19.25 points per game. Sure they lost a key player but look how inspired they played afterward. They ROLLED Duke after the injury. Duke looked like a JV squad out there. They scored 50 points in the second half. They stole the ball ten times. Shot nearly 53% from the field. Held Duke under 37% from the field and they won the rebound battle. That is how each of their box scores look thus far.

 

Louisville can rebound and play defense with the Shockers offsetting their advantages over most teams. The Shockers are scrappy but so is Louisville and they are better at it than Wichita State is. -10.5 is a lot of points but Lousville is the heavyweight champ and Wichita State is the flyweight contender. They should win by nearly 20 points again unless they turn the ball over too much, miss a shit ton of free throws, and Rick Pitino throws Mike Rice a going away party at the same time as the game, since nobody will ever think about his own past issues as a coach ever again.

 

The case for Wichita State:

 

They had the tougher road. I have said it plenty but they were 66-1 before the tourney started to win the West region. They have been playing as a big underdog from the beginning. Being 10.5 point underdogs is so different than what they have been up against the whole tournament. They even knocked off an OSU team that had won eleven straight to get here.

 

The Shockers are playing great ball and now draw the top overall seed in Louisville who just lost a key piece to their team. They are now a weaker defensive and rebounding team which gives Wichita State an advantage the other teams Louisville played did not. They might be playing in his honor but that does not replace his size on the floor.

 

They play a complete game every time they take the floor and since still nobody believes in them they have a real chance at the upset and storming the title game Monday night.

 

The Bet: Wichita State +475

 

The value on this money line is just too rich to pass up. Louisville could blow them out but I think the lack of depth and size after Ware going down will hurt them in this round. The Shockers play great defense and won't give Louisville any easy buckets. This is probably going to be more of a slowed down game making the fast breaks that do happen very exciting. I think Wichita State rides the whole Cinderella thing into Monday night.

 

mlz

Friday, April 5, 2013