The culmination of the 2013 season pits the Big 10 against the Big East. The top overall seed Louisville has been given the favorite status by the odds makers as they open at -4. PS. they need a new trophy.

Louisville -4 vs Michigan

The case for Louisville:

They were the #1 overall seed for a reason. They cleaned up the Big East for most of the season and then again in the Big East Tournament and have not yet missed a beat in the big dance.

The Cardinals are so deep that they seem to have a different guy step up and fill a void every game. Since they are so deep they will have plenty of guys to check whoever Michigan wants to throw at them. Their on ball defense will keep Trey Burke from beating them barring his hitting the crazy, stupid, JR Smith type threes he takes all too often. Louisville's defensive intensity should make for a low scoring game which benefits the Cardinals to no end.


The case for Michigan:

Just like Saturday against Syracuse, they need to shoot the lights out. They did that Saturday but can they stay that hot? They are going to need to get their outside shot falling early and often and they need Mitch McGary to continue killing it in the paint.

I did not think they would dispose of Syracuse so easily Saturday night but they just made it rain and if they can do it against the Orange who is to say they can not do it again vs Louisville?

Between Burke, Hardaway, Robinson, Stauskas, Albrecht and LeVert, they have enough weapons to get at least one of them hot. That is a lot of guys to have to keep an eye on, that can get hot at any point. Then you also have to worry about McGary down low beating you.

The Bet: Louisville -4

I just refuse to believe Trey Burke is good enough to lead a team to a title. So much so that I almost changed my pick to Michigan for a win/win scenario. He has absolutely killed me all year long, whether I bet on or against him. Enough is enough it is time he gets exposed for the fraud he is. There is no reverse Kemba Walker here. AP3 and I rode Walker to a healthy pay day after the year was over now the opposite is happening to me with Burke. Without trying to sound like a crazed narcissist, that seems to be the best thing they have going for them. I think that Louisville's pressure will force a lot of bad shots and the youth in the paint for Michigan will be exposed by the deeper aggressive defensive club. Also, when you have a bunch of three point shooters on the floor you typically are not the strongest defensive ball club. Michigan will hang around but Louisville will win by about 10 points.

The Best Bet: Under 138

Even with Michigan lighting up Syracuse on Saturday they stayed under. These games in football stadiums seem to throw these kids off a bit. Maybe it is the nerves of the big game or maybe it is the distance between the hoop and the backdrop that is throwing them off. Regardless this game is going to start out slow and while it may pick up, won't get anywhere near 138.

mlz

Monday, April 8, 2013