While it may be a bit too early to make any huge bets on the World Cup, the gambler in me is anxious to break this thing down. Of course injuries amongst other things can happen that could change the outlook of this event but with the draw just taking place let’s strike while it’s hot and before the sharps get their bets in to leach any value away. We also may have a little fun along the way. Of course the USA had quite the shit draw which pissed me off since I bet them back in July to win it all at 211-1. But if they can escape Group G they might be battle tested enough to make a run.

29. Brazil 14-1 to not advance from Group A

Is there a more fun bet on the board? Sure the country of Brazil probably would never recover from this. But I just can’t help myself. This Brazil team, while fun to watch, seems like a team filled with douchebags. To see a team full of douchebags get bounced on their home turf in one of the weakest groups on the board, would be fun as hell.

28. Jackson Martinez (Colombia) 80-1 to be the top goalscorer

In six games this year Martinez has scored seven times. He also has the benefit of playing in a bit of a weak Group C. Colombia is a -500 favorite to win this group so they should be able to score some goals and Martinez is the best on their team at doing just that.

27. Fred (Brazil) 30-1 to be the top goalscorer

Like I said earlier Group A may be the weakest of them all. Brazil should be able to feast off of their opponents early and rack up a ton of goals. Of course Neymar is their main man but if he takes on the role of playmaker like he has in the past, this may be the guy that benefits the most from it.

26. Algeria 30-1 to win Group H

This is far from the worlds greatest soccer squad but they seem to have some grit and they benefit from playing in a weak Group H. Their biggest competition to win this group is Belgium but their other opponents will be Russia and Korea. To me it feels as though you are getting #26 Algeria at 30-1 to beat #11 Belgium… that is some incredible value.

25. Robin van Persie (Netherlands) 22-1 to be the top goalscorer

In 10 Premier League games this year he has already accumulated seven goals. This Netherlands team should be a lock to at least advance out of Group B. They will have to go up against #1 Spain but they will also be playing Chile and Australia. Obviously when betting the top goalscorer you are looking for a team that can make a deep run and the Netherlands could do just that since they are ranked as the #9 team in the world and are playing in a group with only one team that should scare them. They should find their way into at least the second round and from there anything can happen, especially if this guy keeps scoring goals.

24. Colombia 18-1 to win the World Cup

As I stated earlier in the Jackson Martinez bet, this is a great Colombia team. They are currently ranked #4 in the world and will have the benefit of being far superior to the other three teams in their opening group (Greece, Ivory Coast and Japan). They should win all of their games in the group stage gathering some much needed momentum as they look to advance deep in the tournament.

23. Algeria 5-1 to advance from Group H

Russia and Korea are the only teams that stand in the way of this team advancing. 5-1 is incredible value for a team climbing the world ranks.

22. Switzerland 80-1 to win the World Cup

France, Ecuador and Honduras. Which of those three teams really scares you? I can’t envision a scenario in which they finish 3rd in this group seeing that they are ranked at least ten spots ahead of all three of those teams. As long as they show up ready to play in the group stage you will be have the #9 team in the world at 80-1 instead of about 15-1 if you were to wait and see what you are getting out of them. Pure value play here.

21. Brazil +285 to win the World Cup

I couldn’t leave this off the list. Despite having such poor odds/value Brazil is the home team. They are playing for a country that might implode if they lose. They are truly loaded in nearly every aspect of the game. I wish there was more value here but it’s tough to complain about a team that basically just needs to show up to win Group A.

20. USA 160-1 to win the World Cup

I’m pretty pissed about the draw the US got. I won’t call it “The Group of Death” because that’s silly. Everyone knows “The Group of Death” is the group of people sitting below the upper sections of these Brazil stadiums. Anyway, if the US can manage to get out of Group G they could gather enough momentum to make you look like a genius for betting them at 160-1. That’s what I’m hoping for at least since I bet them at 211-1 in July.

19. Germany +550 to not advance from Group G

This is not out of the realm of possibility. With Portugal playing as well as anyone right now, Germany better be careful with their matches against the US and Ghana. They could certainly lose to two of those teams and find themselves headed home early despite being 5-1 to win the whole thing.

18. Radamel Falcao (Colombia) 20-1 to be the top goalscorer

This guy is really good at scoring goals and will benefit from being on a team that has the ability to go deep into this tournament. In 14 French Ligue games this season he has amassed nine goals on 40 shots. If Colombia can make a run this could end up being a nice payday at 20-1.

17. Over .5 refs beheaded

Remember that story? A ref stabbed and killed a player only to be cornered, beaten and eventually decapitated by the fans. That story isn’t from 50 years ago, it’s from five months ago. What year is it in Brazil? Why is the World Cup and shortly after, if the country doesn’t go up in flames, the Olympics, being held in this zoo of a country?

16. USA 10-1 to win Group G

At 10-1 why the hell not? This team wants to prove they belong here and will have their opportunity to do so by playing with and beating Germany, Portugal and Ghana. Of course they don’t need to win out to win this thing since the other teams should beat each other up as well. With this tough of a Group H, they might be able to win it even with one loss.

15. Over .5 players murdered after making a big mistake

Every time this tournament is held there is always at least one story about a player making a boneheaded error resulting in his teams elimination only to be brutally murdered when he arrives in his home country. Of course there may not be any travel needed, if Brazil chokes the field may be rushed by thousands of crazed idiots.

14. Neymar (Brazil) 12-1 to be the top goalscorer

Brazil is going to go as far as this guy can take them. He is the unquestioned best player and leader of this team. 12-1 is great value for the best player on arguably the best team when they are playing at home against three suckass teams in the opening stages of the tournament. They should be able to go deep enough for him to really pile up the stats. Also 12-1 is great value for a guy who’s main competition is coming off of major injuries. Messi is the favorite at 8-1 but Neymar is second at 12-1 and 12-1 for the second lowest odds is great value.

13. Ivory Coast -110 to advance from Group C

I almost jumped on Greece for this pick but something doesn’t quite feel right about that play. Greece has moved up three spots to #12 in the world while the Ivory Coast club sits at #17. Despite the rankings Greece is +250 to advance out of this group and -330 to not advance. Something smells fishy about that Greece team I would stay away from them at all costs. This isn’t all about Greece though, the Ivory Coast is a good soccer team and I believe they are better than Greece and definitely better than Japan. They won’t win Group C but -110 to advance feels like free money.

12. USA +200 to advance from Group G

I am not being a homer, I truly believe in this US club. While 10-1 to win this group would be nice, this is the safe play. While everyone on the homefront is complaining about the shitty draw for this team, they seem to be forgetting that it’s also a shitty draw for Germany, Portugal and Ghana. These four teams are going to beat each other up and I believe that when the dust settles you will be pissed if you don’t have them at +200.

11. Argentina 4-1 to win the World Cup

10. Lionel Messi (Argentina) 8-1 to be the top goalscorer

Normally I would suggest betting Messi to score the most goals at 8-1 instead of Argentina to win it all at 4-1, similar to betting the obvious Super Bowl MVP with better odds than the team you think is going to win. However, with Messi sidelined until January after his third leg injury you may have to get in on both of these bets. Messi has dominated the soccer field winning the World Player of the Year award in 2009, ‘10, ‘11, and ‘12. The 2012 award came after recording the most goals ever in a calendar year. While I would advise you to take a wait and see approach with Messi’s health, that may cost you some value on these lines and seeing as to how Messi has never had a successful performance in a World Cup, you can’t afford to give up any value here.

9. Colombia -150 to win Group C

Now this is free money. The competition for the #4 ranked team in the world is Greece, Japan and the Ivory Coast. None of those teams will scare Colombia even slightly. They should roll through Group C in fashion. If all you are laying is -150 then it’s absolutely worth laying the odds on a big Colombia bet.

8. England +145 to not advance from Group D

England seems to be the odd man out in a three horse race. Uruguay and Italy are just too much for them to overcome. While they should cruise past Costa Rica, so will the other two teams.

7. France +450 to not advance from Group E

Sure they are the favorite to win this group, but that is why you get such great value betting against them. Honduras likely won’t pose a threat Ecuador and Switzerland have what it takes to send the #18 ranked French team home early. Switzerland has struggled a bit but they are ranked #8 for a reason. Meanwhile Ecuador is ranked back in 23rd but have recently shown the ability to hang with the likes of Argentina, something even France wouldn’t hold their noses up at.

6. Mexico (even) to advance from Group A

I really love this bet. Obviously Brazil is in Group A, so there is likely only one spot to fill but with Croatia and Cameroon being Mexico’s competition they should be able to sneak into the next round. This certainly isn’t their best club of all time but the luck of the draw really benefited them. Anything less than a trip to the next round would be considered an extreme disappointment for a team that suddenly has new life.

5. Spain -140 to win Group B

Wait a minute I only have to lay -140 on the #1 ranked team in the world to beat the likes of the Netherlands, Chile and Australia? Thanks sportsbooks I can certainly pay for Christmas 2014 with this one.

4. Over 10.5 spectator deaths due to the lack of building codes in Brazil

What is going on in this country? Is there no building codes at all? How can you have all this time to prep for the World Cup and one week before groups get drawn a story comes out that your stadium collapsed killing two people? I’ll say it again, the real “Group of Death” is the fans sitting underneath the upper sections of the stadium.

3. Portugal 30-1 to win the World Cup

This is the best value on the board for any team to win the tournament. They are soaring up the rankings, currently sitting in 5th. The odds are so high because of the tough Group H that they were thrown into. But if you make your bet early you will end up having a top 5 team in the world at 30-1 when their live odds would be closer to 5-1.

2. Over 20.5 years the country of Brazil will be set back should they fail to win this tournament

If every country had a national pastime and the US's is baseball, or arguably football, then does that make rioting Brazil’s? I don’t think there is a possible outcome in which the country isn’t burned to the ground but if the crazed maniacs are happy rioting the damage will be significantly less than if they choke.

1. Michu (Spain) 100-1 to be the top goalscorer

This is #1 simply for the value that is oozing out of it. By making this bet you are getting 100-1 odds on a guy who burst onto the scene in 2012-13 by leading the Premier League in goals scored. You are also getting a guy who plays on the #1 ranked team and who has arguably the easiest path through the group stage of any other major contender. Spain is going to go on a deep run in this thing especially if this guy gets hot. If he were 50-1 I would still have this play at #1.

mlz

Saturday, December 7, 2013