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How to Bet the 2013 NBA Title 

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I got my odds from SBG which is slowly, and I emphasize slowly, best sportsbook on the internet. I may have rounded some because they are ridiculously precise. I mean the Minnesota Timberwolves are 175.5-1 to win the title for christ sake. I don’t understand their logic behind it at all. If Minnesota is only 175-1 does that scare you off? Are you saying out loud to yourself in a stern, Daniel, voice “If only I could get an extra 50 cents”. You’ll see what I’m talking about. I only rounded the ones that were stupid like that one, there are plenty of +810’s and +485’s to go around.

To Win the Title

Stay Away From:

Clippers +1250

I just don’t see how this works out. The only thing that meshes is that Doc is a point guards coach and his best player happens to be the best point guard in the NBA. So that should be great right? But Doc is going to come in and try and get this team to play defense, like Tom Thibodeau and Kevin Garnett did in Boston. Only he has an undersized four and a five that is a zero on the offensive end late in games. I think CP3, he deserves a better nickname, is going to follow Doc to a fault this year and he may end up with a lot of defensive player of the year consideration, but ultimately this team needs to do with Chris Paul wants to do, not to much Doc Rivers. Doc needs to gameplan around CP3, not change him. Everyone that is so high on the Clippers needs to remember that they were a four seed last year and got their asses handed to them by the Grizzlies. A coach isn’t going to change that. This is the sixth best team in the Western Conference, there is no reason to bet them at all this year let alone at 12.5-1.

Sit on:

Miami +185

With the East being much better than it was a year ago, this line is going to get better. +185 is not appropriate value. That’s not to say they aren’t going to win the title, this section is simply to tell you to sit on this and wait until it gets better. Once people see that the Nets, Bulls, Pacers and maybe even the Knicks and Cavs are legit this line has to go up.

OKC +610

At full strength this isn’t nearly good enough value. But right before Westbrook comes back when they are struggling, you might get the value you need to bet the Thunder.

Dip Your Toes in on:

Chicago +810

There is a good chance Derrick Rose steps back in and gets back to dominating the court. But there is also a chance this team gets off to a rough start while they get their chemistry on offense back. +810 might be the best you see them all year and it might be the worst you would get before Christmas. Get in with a little bit here and stay on your toes.

Knicks +2950

As you can probably tell this is the section of teams that are right on the fence. A good gust of wind could knock them in either direction. I was actually high on this Knicks team until Carmelo started mouthing off about free agency. I don’t get it. I know the Knicks have created some awful contracts but have you absolutely no loyalty to anything? I understand you values can change over the course of a couple years, but first you wanted New York and now you dream of free agency? Did you get to NYC and realize it gets cold, so now you want to move to LA? Screw this chump. He’s a punk that doesn’t play defense regardless of what the talking heads tell you. He is a great scorer, I will give him that, but he may have taken a stranglehold on the worlds worst teammate award. If he comes out and does his own thing then you don’t want to get back in on this. But if he comes out and plays lights out and leads this team to a nice start? This line is going to drop in a hurry. If they get out to a 10-2 start their odds might be down to 12-1.

Memphis +3250

The Grizzlies could provide the best value you see in a future bet this year. They could also have you laughing as they blow their team up after a rough start. They are clearly cap-conscious and are in desperate need of some outside shooting. If they look to be buyers and find some help they could win the title. But if they start to struggle a bit early and get the mood down in the front office, they could make a play for the future.

Get In Now on:

Brooklyn 11-1

Remember when people were hesitant on the 2006-07 Celtics because they weren’t sure how well they would mesh? Well they got off to a 27-3 start because they aren’t selfish players. Deron Williams might be a selfish player but even by default if this team gets off to a 27-3 start they are 2-1 at best. 11-1 is the best you are going to see this team all season long, get in now.

Houston 13-1

Earlier today I wrote about Chandler Parsons and the rest of the Rockets. I have them winning that division. They are just loaded. I say Chandler Parsons because he is going to feel like the greatest sixth man of all time even though he is a starter. With Harden and Dwight, nobody is going to think of this already underrated kid. But he does it all and is a professional. He will be aggressive and do whatever it is the team needs him to do. You will see him grab big offensive rebounds, come up with key steals or blocks, and knock down big three pointers. This is a great basketball team. 13-1 is a gift that will not last very long.

Golden State 23-1

I’ve said it a number of times throughout the past month but this team just needs to stay healthy. If they can keep the core of their current team on the floor they have a legit shot to win the West, and if they can win the West they have at least a shooters chance at the title. 23-1 is insanely good odds. I know Steph Curry’s ankles could turn back into paper mache, but with the addition of Andre Iguodala I am really excited. Curry, Klay, Iggy, Lee, and Bogut. What a great starting five even though they may be better off going small and getting out and running. Regardless the Warriors are the single most fun team to watch. Receiving a text that says “Steph is heating up” is one of the most exciting things in sports. There is more anxiety involved in a “Steph is heating up” text than in anything an ex girlfriend has to offer. The Warriors could get enough defense out of Iggy and Curry and Thompson could get hot enough to make a legit title run. +2275 or whatever their stupid line is on SBG, will be the best you will see all season… provided they stay healthy.

Cavs 121-1

I couldn’t love this line any more. Kyrie Irving might have an MVP trophy awaiting him if his supporting cast can play to their potential. Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson should take a step forward while Earl Clark and #1 pick Anthony Bennett will come in and help out at the 3 and 4 positions. If they can get anything out of Andrew Bynum and the consistently injured Anderson Varejao they might shock the world and win their division and get a top three seed in the East. To be honest I would get in for a small amount here and stay tuned for a future column that suggests to bet Kyrie to win the MVP…


Monday, October 28, 2013

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