Is everyone ready for the race today? Today will be the first time that we will enter the season finale with four drivers all knotted up with a chance to win the championship. No bonus points no bs, just beat the other three and capture the crown.

 

Harvick +140 to win the Championship

Why he could win:

Because if it weren't for some bad luck Harvick could have won twice as many races. There were more races in which you thought to yourself wow, today's race is Harvick's to lose. Starting fifth, today seems like another one of those weeks.

Why he may not win:

Because he has had such bad luck. He wasn't able to finish off as many races as he should have. Now coming off a dominating win at Phoenix to stay alive, he is second to only Jimmie Johnson as far as the odds on favorite to win this week and he is the favorite to win the championship.

Another reason Harvick doesn't walk away with this years championship is his ongoing fued with Logano. This race could very well end with the two of them racing the shit out of each other and Logano doing something that gets him into hot water again, albeit as a champion.

Logano +250

Why he could win:

While Harvick had the best car in the field the most weekends this season Logano is the one that closed out the most races. He is the one that actually went out and won five races this season.

Why he may not:

Because he has a giant target on his back. He as well as his teammate, Brad Keselowski, have gotten under a lot of people's skin this year and this may be the day he gets paid back.

He also may not win simply because he has never been good here at the season finale. In five starts he has posted just one top 10, eighth, and two finishes outside the top 20.

Hamlin +350

Why he could win:

His numbers at Homestead are really good. While Harvick possesses a slightly better average finish Hamlin has two wins to Harvicks zero. Two is also the most at this track by all active drivers except Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle who each have won three times.

Why he may not:

The Steelers went out with Bieber after flying high for a few weeks and got shelled by the Jets. Now Hamlin spends his birthday last night with Lil Wayne... He's in trouble today.

Newman +375

Why he could win:

Because the storyline is just too good. Because nobody expects him to. And because nobody believes in him. We have never had a champion that has never won a single race, and maybe we still shouldn't, but wouldn't it be great if he climbed back from 21st starting position to win the championship in the new Chase format 11 years after losing the Championship to Matt Kenseth in a year in which Kenseth won once and Newman won eight times. The Chase or the "Matt Kenseth Rule" was put in place because many believe Newman got screwed. Now he has a chance to win the title in the final race without having won a single time.

Why he may not:

Because he just hasn't been great at Homestead and he has never been the best car in any given weekend this year. In 12 career starts at Homestead, Newman has just one top 5, four top 10's and an average finish of 17th.

All that being said... Harvick probably deserves to win the championship more than anyone but I truly believe that Ryan Newman is going to pull this off and win the race outright.

mlz

Sunday, November 16, 2014