With less than a week to go in the regular season the conference tournament seeds are starting to take shape. And we shall soon find out who gets the regular season crown for their conference. Ohio State knocked off #1 Indiana last night further shaking up this crazy season. Who will survive and maybe lock up a top seed?

Given this year on a whole, the fact that there's under a week left means absolutely anything can happen. But let's try and make sense of who will be riding a regular season conference title and top seed into tournament play.

Atlantic 10

St. Louis 12-2 (23-5)
VCU 11-3 (23-6)

These are the only two that remain that have a chance. VCU plays vs Richmond tonight, and @ Temple on Saturday. In order to steal the conference they need to win both of those while St. Louis would need to lose tonight @ Xavier, and Saturday vs La Salle, since the Billikens smoked VCU in their only meeting. (I remember/take fault I bet VCU.) The advantage is clearly with St Louis on this one. There is a chance both teams go 0-2 to close out the year. They shouldn't but it's possible. Those four games are going to be games worth watching. Richmond can get after the ball, Temple has the same record and is probably playing better than Butler right now, La Salle is ahead of them, and Xavier a road game vs a well coached team with some talent and fight. Plus they need to rattle off some wins to make the big dance.

If you haven't seen them play, VCU presses full court after every made basket. They are extremely high energy. St Louis is more meticulate. They just win, they're like a machine at times. They are currently riding an 11 game win streak. During that streak they beat Butler when they were #9 by 17 at home, then they beat VCU at #24 by 14 at home and then in their very next game they won @ Butler by four. They can beat anyone anywhere anytime, but how consitant can they be? Enough to win 11 straight in a major basketball conference, and the regular season conference crown.

ACC

Miami 14-2 (23-5)

For some reason this isn't "locked up" in some peoples minds just yet. Miami could lose their remaining two games and Duke could win its final game @UNC on Saturday night. It won't matter. The tiebreaker is obviously first head to head, but then it's record vs the next best team in the conference. Since Miami has only lost to Duke and Wake Forest, that would mean that Wake Forest would need to win four of their final two games, while Maryland loses out.

Big 12

Kansas 14-3 (26-4)
Kansas State 14-3 (25-5)

Kansas has the inside track and the tiebreaker. They just need to win @ Baylor to close out the year to seel the deal, easier said than done.

Big East

Georgetown 13-4 (23-5)
Louisville 13-4 (25-5)
Marquette 13-4 (22-7)

Georgetown just lost to this is wide open now. They will play a rather large game on Saturday vs #17 Syracuse. Should they win that game they will be crowned regular season champions. If not things will come down to a tiebreaker and we won't know the results until all games are in. Look for Marquette to steal this one now.

Big Ten

Indiana 13-4 (25-5)
Ohio State 12-5 (22-7)
Michigan State 11-5 (22-7)
Wisconsin 11-5 (20-9)
Michigan 11-5 (24-5)

Yes there is a five way tie possible. Should Michigan get the win tonight, then beat Indiana. Pair that with Ohio State beating Illinois, Michigan State beating Wisconsin and losing to an underrated Northwestern team and then a Wisconsin win @ Penn State. Five way tie. For the record Indiana has the nod there, and they have almost every tiebreaker there is. So look for them to win this conference in the end but on a tie breaker with Michigan State and look for Ohio State to lose to Illinois to close out there year.

PAC 12

Oregon 12-4 (23-6)
UCLA 12-4 (22-7)
California 12-5 (20-9)
Arizona 11-6 (23-6)

There's no trusting any one of these teams. But I see it playing out with Oregon and UCLA splitting their final two and Cal winning on the three way tiebreaker. Given that they both have two road games left and the nature of this conference this year, that is far from unlikely.

SEC 

Florida 13-3 (23-5)
Kentucky 11-5 (20-9)

 

Florida basically has this locked up. Sure Kentucky could take care of business and win a tie breaker but lets be honest. They aren't beating Florida to close out the year without Noel even if everything else falls their way. But to have a chance at a regular season conference title isn't too bad for a team that might not make the big dance.

mlz
Tuesday, March 6, 2013