Sunday 1pm, TNT

This 1.058 flat oval is really the only one of its kind on the Cup circuit. The only other track you could compare it to would be Phoenix but that is a 1.5 mile flat tri-oval. New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon will provide a race filled with green flag laps and pit strategy. NHMS might be the only thing that can stop NASCAR on TNT from looking like a big joke once again. Don’t expect any really big wrecks like last week but several of the drivers including Tony Stewart are on record saying that everytime they go back to this track it seems to lose some grip. So instead of the big wrecks expect to see some debris cautions to tighten the pack up before the end of the race where guys will be dive bombing the corner sliding up the track and wrecking a few cars.

Loudon can certainly get dull and that is almost certainly why it’s a 300 mile race instead of 400 miles. However if you watched the Nationwide race earlier today you were treated to quite the race. While most of the race was a touch on the dull side, as per usual, there was a hell of a battle between Brian Vickers and Kyle Busch for the lead for most of the race. That is until Kyle was able to pull away towards the end. Then three green-white-checkered attempts happened while fuel was a nerve racking factor for finishing the race in regulation.

While I fear that the Nationwide Series may have used up all of the excitement NHMS has to offer in one weekend I have a strange feeling that these Loudon races may have become a bit underrated recently. The last four races here have featured an above average number of lead changes and DNF’s. This track suits the drivers that can really whip their cars around the flat track, drivers with a dirt track history have done rather well here. So when thinking about who you want to bet tomorrow take a second and really think about who has a knack for overdriving their cars and whom has right combination of road course ability.

Before we get to the bets I just want to gloat/give you a reason to follow me on Twitter (@mlz34) for what will hopefully be a morning filled with some behind the scenes tweets/pictures. I will be in attendance tomorrow as I am almost always at these Loudon races. But this time I will be sitting up in the air conditioned FedEx suite right on the start/finish line. Last year I left Loudon as red as the Kool-Aid guy so the a/c will be rather nice. That’s not the exciting part though. Up in the FedEx suite I will be meeting one Denny Hamlin and his boss/famous NFL coach Joe Gibbs. We should also get a tour of the pits and I believe if Denny and the #11 team were to put the FedEx Toyota in Victory Lane I may be able to join in on the celebration. That is the perfect lead in to this next section...

Stay Aways:

Denny Hamlin 5-1

Did you read the paragraph before this? My luck is nowhere near good enough for him to win.

Kevin Harvick 18-1

Remember last year when Matt Kenseth was dominating the #17 machine until he announced he would be headed to JGR after the season, just before The Chase? Well if you don’t he then proceeded to lose the championship by finishing 14th or worst in seven of the ten Chase races. As far as Harvick goes, he’s not winning this week even though you think he has some value at 18-1. He is a total stay away, don’t even think about it. Luckily it’s early enough in the season that he should be able to have a chance to chase down a championship before bolting for SHR.

Best Bets:

Brad Keselowski 9-1

How can the defending champ be winless thus far? Not only does he get the benefit of starting on the pole but he also caught a break when the #48 car failed inspection putting him at the rear of the field instead of inside Kes at the drop of the green flag. In a race where track position and pit crew can be the most important thing, I’ll happily take 9-1 odds on the guy starting on the pole with the 2nd best crew chief in all of NASCAR. Not to mention the #2 team was one of just a few teams that were able to gather information here earlier in their testing period.

Clint Bowyer 11-1

Dirt track experience? Check. Former NHMS winner? Twice. Former road course winner? Check.

He is however starting a little further back than I would like, 20th, but 11-1 is really nice for a driver with his history/track record. Plus he has momentum on his side. Coming into this week he has three straight top 5’s and a top 8 finish in six out of the last seven races.

Tony Stewart 13-1

See Clint Bowyer, then add in another win and a better average finish at NHMS, a better starting position, six more road course victories, and the fact that Stewart-Haas Racing was one of the other few teams who tested at NHMS this year, oh yah and he pays out 18% more than Bowyer.

Best Value Bets:

Marcos Ambrose 150-1

Marcos Ambrose to finish in the Top 3 55-1

I can’t decide which of these I like more. Luckily there is no rule that says you can’t bet them both. I know I will be. Ambrose is arguably the best road course driver in NASCAR and maybe the world, so he knows his way around a flat track.

My Pick:

Ryan Newman 50-1

When the green flag drops tomorrow Newman will only be about 48 hours removed from being told he would not be back in the #39 with Stewart-Haas Racing. He will also be starting 15th directly next to the man who fired him... Tony Stewart.

The fact that Newman will be only about two days removed from being formally told he would be let go at the end of the year makes me feel that this is far and away the best value play, the best bet and my favorite play of the year since Denny Hamlin hasn’t been able to rebound from his back injury to help my bet on him to win the Cup. Between practices, working on his Cup car and racing in the modifieds race today I don’t think the news will have had time to let it sink in. The only thought that should be going through his head is “win”.

Suddenly Newman is the driver that needs to win the most. He needs to win to assist in his search for a full time ride in 2014. He needs to win to show SHR they made a big mistake. He needs to win to keep his 2013 season alive. Newman is outside the top 10 in points and is winless on the year so he needs to win to make The Chase this season.

For the record if they had let him go even just 24 hours earlier Newman would have found a spot in the Stay Away section. But with the way it played out I think it’s going to light a fire under his ass. Ryan is going to drive pissed off and should he in fact win tomorrow he may gather some momentum and make a run at a championship similar to the way Darien Grubb helped Tony Stewart win as a lame duck crew chief a couple years ago. That’s right, I’m telling you, you need to bet Ryan Newman at 100-1 to win the 2013 Sprint Cup Championship before he heads to Victory Lane tomorrow and before he gets the eye of the tiger. Get in now, and get ready for an abundance of free mortgage payments and more free bloomin’ onions at Outback Steakhouse than any of us fat guys know what to do with.

PS. Just when you thought we were going to go a full weekly race preview without me mentioning how good Jimmie Johnson and the #48 is. Here is how much respect that #48 team has from oddsmakers around the world... Despite starting dead last tomorrow, in a track position race, Jimmie Johnson is the 2nd favorite going off at 6-1. Would you really be surprised to see him find his way to Victory Lane? Me neither. He has been so good this year it seems like he needs to basically spot the leaders a lap just to make it fair. While the 6-1 odds aren’t high enough for me to bite on they would have needed to be about 2-1 for me to put in him the Stay Away section. In fact I’m going to suggest placing a small bet on him to win tomorrow just so you don’t feel stupid when he pulls it off.

mlz

Saturday, July 13, 2013