Forget the day after the game, the day that Super Bowl props get released should be a national holiday. They are so much fun to sift through. Although I will say, this year I am feeling a little down on the prop bets. Not that the options aren’t there, I just want to unload everything I have to bet on the game and/or the under to really fall too far in love with any of these props like I have in the past.

First TD

Marshawn Lynch 6-1

The Seahawks aren’t going to stray from their game plan. Sure the Broncos have played against the run rather well their past two games, but they didn’t play a run first beat you up kind of team like the Seahawks are. They are going to rely on their defense and Lynch pounding the ball. If Seattle scores the first TD it feels like a near lock that it will be Marshawn Lynch followed by a Skittles shower.

Eric Decker 9-1

While Manning has a couple receivers that are more talented than Decker, it seems as though he has become his favorite target and this guy is good and rarely seems to make a mistake. The Broncos like to run the ball pretty much until they get into the redzone and Decker is going to see some red zone targets. 9-1 is solid for a guy that seems to find a way to get open and has such sure hands.

Percy Harvin 18-1

Why the hell not? When he last played he was a focal point for that Seahawks offense. If he is even remotely healthy he is going to be a weapon in this one as well. 18-1 for someone who can score in multiple facets of the game is quite sexy.

Seahawks win by

4-6 9-1

7-10 +850

11-13 19-1

14-17 18-1

This game just feels like one of those that will end up teetering on that 3/4point margin depending on who is leading and 9-1 for a 4 point Seahawks win is rather enticing. But I feel like there is a better chance of the Seahawks winning by multiple scores than the Broncos. Betting all four of these almost all but assures a nice pay day as far as I am concerned.

Specials

Earl Thomas 12 or more tackles 11-1

I really love this bet. Denver loves to run those quick short pass plays. As long as Kam Chancellor does not take too many of those tackles away from Earl Thomas you could be getting 11-1 odds on what should be a sure thing.

Peyton Manning throws an INTD 9-1

At 9-1 this is just too much fun to not bet.

MVP

Peyton Manning +110

If you are thinking that Denver is going to win this game, I don’t see why you wouldn’t skip over the Broncos moneyline or even points spread and jump on this line. He spreads the ball out too much for a receiver to steal this one from him and no Broncos defensive player is going to jump out and steal this from Peyton, so why not change your odds from -110 to +110? It doesn’t make any sense to bet the Broncos instead you should be betting Manning to win the MVP.

Russell Wilson +360

What sexy odds for a quarterback to be the MVP of the Super Bowl. While his lack of statistical output has been more than well documented the past month or so, the QB of the winning team almost always win the MVP honor. Getting him at +360 is incredible value.

Marshawn Lynch +450

And if Russ doesn’t win, here’s the likely winner. He topped the 100 yard marker against the 49ers which is nothing to scoff at. The Broncos rush defense is not on the same level as the 49ers so he should be able to at least match his numbers from the NFC title game.

Percy Harvin 18-1

Couldn’t you see him scoring a touchdown through the air and on the ground? He is the true x factor and has been all season for the Seahawks. Their receivers have struggled to get open for Russ all season long. The addition of Harvin should open things up and give the Broncos defenders another weapon to think about.

Richard Sherman 25-1

Earl Thomas 45-1

The Seahawks defense is so good that they could really shut the Broncos down. I’m not saying they will blank what was statistically the best offensive unit in NFL history, but they could definitely win one of those 24-7 type games in which it feels like a blowout like they have done all season.

Coin Toss

Tails -102

Why do we bet this? Is it just to hopefully get the mojo flowing in the right direction before the game actually begins? I know it hasn’t worked that way for me in the past. On more than one occasion I have only won my coin toss bet. In fact thinking about it now, I might forgo my yearly tradition. Either way tails is the way I’m going if I do pull the trigger.

Color of the Gatorade Bath

Chicken Broth 50-1

Hot Chocolate 50-1

I’m not suggesting bet this, I just wanted to make sure everyone was aware that this was actually a bet that was available on sportsbook.com. It’s not a joke. What the eff?

Game Lines

Seattle +115

This is simply the logical play in my mind. While the majority of the public is riding Peyton Manning off into the sunset the Seahawks are the more physical team and should beat the hell out of the Broncos. This game might be a toss up in my book, therefore taking the +115 odds is a victory in and of itself. Plus you are all aware that 66% of people are betting Denver right? Vegas rarely loses.

Under 48.5

Please someone explain to me why this would go over 48 points. The two Broncos playoff games had final scores of 24-17 vs SD and 26-16 vs NE. So now with the Broncos going up against the best defensive team in the NFL I am supposed to expect that there is going to be a touchdown or so more points scored? I just can’t see a scenario in which this game goes over. Not to forget how a lot of these guys have never played in the Super Bowl before and that typically brings on a lot of butterflies. The first quarter could be scoreless all but assuring the game goes under and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least bit.

PS. A Seahawks ML + Under parlay pays just barely over 3-1. I think that’s me this year. Good luck to everyone except Peyton Manning.

mlz

Friday, January 31, 2014