What an interesting region the West is. The #1 seed hasn't beaten anyone, the #2 seed is probably the third best #2 seed in the tourney. There is an 8-1 #8 seed matched against a 66-1 #9 seed. More importantly there are two teams with must bet value.

 

There are plenty of Big 12 haters out there and you have a point. The conference is weak this year. They got dominated by Kansas three times this year. They have not proven too much. But there is a PAC-12 team, Arizona, with better odds, there is an 8 seed Pittsburgh with better odds and one of the most overrated teams there are in Wisconsin, also had better odds.

 

I find that rather baffling but I'm sort of giddy thinking about it. 16-1 for a team that has not had one really bad loss all year. A team that plays outstanding team defense, one that has a pair of good guards and one that on average wins the battle on the glass by over 3 boards a game. Oh and did I mention that they play in Kansas City for their first two games?

 

So IF Wisconsin even wins their opening round game, they will have to play Kansas State rather close to home. Also if they do meet then bet the under. It is going to be a defensive battle and an offensive struggle.

 

That takes them to Gonzaga, or if you put any stock into their odds, Pittsburgh. The Zags already beat them this year. But this is a different time, with more at stake. All the pressure will be on Gonzaga they will not be able to put together any kind of great NCAA run this year. They just do not stack up against the rest of the best teams. They will falter to Kansas State mark my words. Even if you have your doubts you are basically getting +1600 for two wins. That a hell of a lot better than an 8-1 #8 seed. You would have to be insane to bet them. I don't care how much you love them.

 

The bottom half of the bracket comes down to Ohio State and New Mexico. Sure I think there may be a first round upset, Belmont over Arizona, but there is no question who will be squaring off in the Sweet 16. Ohio State is playing exceptionally well as of late. They play tough team defense and have been knocking down shots recently. New Mexico is rather similar but they are more athletic. They should be able to run the Buckeyes out of the gym. Their defense will be just as stout as Ohio State and given they can go cold on the offensive end at times, this game would be a close low scoring affair that gets pulled out by the more athletic team, New Mexico.

 

The Lobos are going off at 5-1 right now and I think are poised for a Final Four run. Only one team can pay and they are the one. But the value is too extraordinary in Kansas State to pass it up. If you bet them both you should find yourself with a win-super win scenario in the Elite Eight.

 

mlz

Wednesday, March 20, 2013