Finally we have a good college football week!  Conference games are in full swing,  and there are multiple games that I would be excited to watch even without the gambling aspect.  This hasn't been my best season so far, but I got 8 games that I really like this week, and I'm planning on a big week.  As always, the home team is in caps.

Wisconsin (-8.5) over NORTHWESTERN

Yes, Northwestern is coming off a big win over Penn State, but let's not kid ourselves and think that makes them a good football team.  Penn State may have been 4-0, but anyone who saw them play against Rutgers and UCF knew they weren't as good as their record.  Wisconsin is a much better team than Penn State, with a much better offensive line.  Northwestern isn't going to have the same defensive success as they did last week, and Wisconsin should win this one by double digits.

NOTRE DAME (+2) over Stanford

As a Boston College fan, I feel dirty picking the Irish.  It just feels wrong.  But I have too.  I know that Stanford beat ND last year, but that was at home with Tyler Gaffney.  This year the game is in South Bend, and the Irish have Everett Golson back.  Whole different ball game.  Also, Stanford can't score.  I saw somewhere that if you don't include the Cal-Davis game Stanford is only averaging 2.7 points per redzone appearance .  You can't win if you can't score, and the Irish have a solid defense.

Oklahoma (-6) over TCU

I can't help but think this is a trap.  What does Vegas know that we don't?  This Oklahoma team is for real, putting up over 30 points every game, and winning by double digits every week.  Yes TCU has rolled everyone they have played but they haven't actually played anyone worth mentioning.  I don't see TCU keeping it within a TD.

Baylor (-15.5) over TEXAS

People realize that Texas can't score, right?  They are 106th in the nation in scoring, only breaking 23 points once, against an awful North Texas team (and back when David Ash was QB).  Baylor on the other hand is 1st in points scored, and 8th in points allowed.  Meaning even if Texas were to somehow get to 25 points, they would have to hold Baylor to 40 points to cover, which would be Baylor's season low.  Not going to happen.

OL MISS (+6.5) over Alabama

This is the game of the week, and I am genuinely giddy to watch it.  Both teams are very good defensively, so don't expect a high scoring game.  I give the defensive edge to Ol Miss, who defensively leads the SEC in yards allowed per game, yards allowed per play, and points allowed per game, but it's close.  If you are betting on this game, I think it comes down to if you trust the Rebels offensive, in particular Bo Wallace.  I have made it clear all season that I am a Bo-liever.  I think Wallace leads the Rebels to an upset win.

Pittsburgh (+6) over VIRGINIA

The Pitt Panthers rushing offense, led by James Connor, is the 16th best rushing offense in the nation.  Connor has rushed for over 150 yards per game, and for over 5 yards per carry, in 4 of his 5 games this season.  The one game he didn't?  Last week against Akron.  So what is more likely, Akron solved the Pitt defense, or a 3-1 ACC team was looking ahead to VA and didn't show up?  I am going with the later.  Virginia has a very good defense, but they have had trouble slowing down a couple backs this year ( Jamal Williams and Paul Perkins), allowing 5 or more yards per carry twice.  I think that, combined with the extra motivation of being embarrassed by Akron last week, gives Pitt the edge.

South Carolina (-4) over KENTUCKY

What the hell is going on here?!  Yes, I understand that South Carolina isn't having it's best year, starting 3-2, but they didn't lose to push overs.  Missouri and Texas A&M are good teams.  And it's still Kentucky!  I don't care if they have a 3-1 record, this is a team that went 2-10 last year.  A team that could only put up 17 points on Vanderbilt, and 20 on Ohio.  I refuse to believe that The Gamecocks can't win by more then 4. No way, no how, can't happen.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Florida

I originally didn't want to touch this game, but the more I think about it the more I like Tennessee.  This Florida team just isn't that good.  They lost by 21 to Alabama, and it wasn't even that close, and needed 3 overtones to beat Kentucky.  The Vols aren't exactly world beaters either, but they player Georgia tight last week.  When it comes down to it, the Florida secondary has been pretty shaky this year, and Justin Worley should have a field day against them.  Give the 3 points, it won't be that close.

Big Country

Friday, October 3, 2014