Beat The Spread: Week 15

It’s a sad week ladies and gentlemen. Well, just gentlemen, as I doubt any females frequent this website. But a sad week all the same, since this the last week of college football’s regular season. Which means this MIGHT be the last weekend of Beat the Spread. I may try to keep it going during bowl season, but with so many games over so many days it may be hard. So to end the season, I decided to load up on the games, picking every game Fri/Sat. So we have a full slate of picks, totaling 13 games. So if ever there was a week to get over the .500 mark, it’s this week. I THINk I went 5-5 last week, but unfortunately I’m having a little trouble getting on the site this AM, so we will have to just wait till season end for my total record. As always the home team is in caps.

Northern Illinois (-7) vs Bowling Green (Neutral Site)

Okay, I’m not going to pretend that I’m some sort of MAC football expert. But I have seen Northern Illinois play, and I think they are a legit talented team. They have won 6 straight games, 5 of which they won by 7 points or more. On the flip side, Bowling Green has dropped their last 2, and lost 3 of their last 5. All of those losses were by 7 or more points. I’m going to take the hotter, better team.

Arizona (+14.5) over Oregon (Neutral Site)

I understand the argument for Oregon. They are the more talented team, and have run every opponent that they have faced since losing to Arizona out of the stadium (7 total teams). Plus, it is hard to beat the same team twice in one season. But I’m still going with Arizona, for 2 reasons. First, 14 points is a whole lot. But then you are going to give me the hook with 14.5? I’m not giving over 2 touchdowns too a team that averages over 36 points a game. Secondly, I’m not too sure that Arizona beating Oregon was a fluke the first time around. I think Rich Rod just matches up well against the Ducks. Remember, this wasn’t the first team Arizona beat Oregon. Last year they beat them by 28 points at the end of the season. With that big of a spread, and the recent history, I have to believe Arizona can keep it close, if not win straight up.

Southern Methodist University (+12) over CONNECTICUT

Ugh. Can’t they just cancel this game? Both teams are absolutely atrocious. Neither team can really score. SMU averages less than 10 points a game, while the Huskies only average 15. So why on Earth would I be willing to give double digit points with Connecticut? Especially when they have only scored 10 points the last 2 weeks. Can’t do it.

Iowa St (+34) over TCU

Nobody is going to argue that Iowa State might win this game. It isn’t happening. But 34 points is an

INSANE amount of points to give. That is almost 5 touchdowns. In a conference game, where Iowa State is going to be trying it’s hardest to play spoiler, I just can’t give that many points. I wish I had some sort of stats or trend to back me up, but I’m just rolling with common sence.

Houston (+7) over CINCINNATI

I don’t really understand this spread. The Houston Cougars have a very good defense, ranked 9th in the nation. They have held opponents to 14 points or less in 5 games this season. I’m not saying they will shut down Cincinnati, but it doesn’t seem farfetched to expect them to hold them to under 24 points. Last week Cincinnati played a comparable defense (Temple), putting up just 14 points. Houston hasn’t scored less than 24 points since October 2nd, I don’t expect them to do it this week. Houston keeps this game tight.

Louisiana Tech (+14) over MARSHALL

2 weeks ago this game would have been a no brainer. Marshall was beating everyone, and beating them soundly, averaging over 46 points a game, good for second most in the nation. But two weeks ago, even though it got the win, Marshall struggled a bit against UAB, only winning by 5 (it’s first game where they won by less than two touchdowns). Then last week they lost in overtime to Western Kentucky. Now, this isn’t me saying that all the sudden Marshall stinks, they don’t. They are still 11-1 on the season. But they haven’t run away with it the last two games, and now face a Louisiana Tech team that is no slouch offensively themselves (12 in the nation in scoring). I’m taking the points this week.

OKLAHOMA (-21) over Oklahoma State

I get that this has been a disappointing season for the Sooners, since they had playoff aspirations, but people tend to think that means Oklahoma has been bad. That isn’t the case. Their 3 loses were to Baylor, TCU, and Kansas State. Those are 3 teams in the top 10. The TCU loss was only by 4 points, and Kansas State was only by 1. Let’s not act like this is a garbage team. Oklahoma on the other hand hasn’t won a game since October 11th, and seems to be getting worse every single week. I think Oklahoma wins big here.

Alabama (-14.5) over Missouri (Neutral Site)

Anyone who has read this from the beginning knows I started the season all in on MatyMauk and the Missouri Tigers, so this is going to be hard for me to do, but I got to go with Alabama. I think that Missouri has an elite front 7 defensively, but I can’t trust Mauk and the offense. They are serviceable, but you need better then serviceable to keep up with Alabama. The Tigers have only played one “elite” team leading up to this game, and that was Georgia, who beat them 34-0. The Alabama defense is just to go, and Simms should be able to throw on the Tigers. Give the points

Temple (-3) over TULANE

Just like I said I wasn’t an expert in MAC football, I don’t know much about these teams. But I do have common sense. As I mentioned about while discussing the Cincinnati game, Temple has a really good defense. Statistically they are ranked 11th in the country, allowing under 19 points a game. On the other side, the Tulane offense is abysmal, ranking 119th in the nation with 17.2 points per game scored. Just putting those two factors together, Temple is the pick.

Kansas State (+8.5) over BAYLOR

FACT: I will always take Kansas State on the road. I think that Bill Snyder is the most underrated coach in college football. His teams are almost always well prepared, and almost always play teams tonight. I don’t have trends or previous spreads readily available, but I know from experience this almost always works out. They played Auburn tight in a road loss, beat Oklahoma. Beat WV as an underdog. And they will beat Baylor. That’s right, I said BEAT, not cover. Take it to the bank

Georgia Tech (+4) over Florida State

This probably isn’t a popular opinion, but I think that Georgia Tech is the better team in this game. It seems like every game Florida State is trying to mount a comeback after a poor start to the game. With the Georgia Tech triple option, they are going to be able to grind out the clock, and a cold start for FSU could be the end for them. On a side note take a look at the rushing yards for Citadel, another option team, against FSU. 58 carried for 250 yards. 3 different players averaged more than 6 yards per carry. If Citadel can do it, I don’t see any reason that GT can’t. On top of that you want to give me points? I will roll with Georgia Tech all day.

Ohio State (+4) over Wisconsin

This may sound crazy, considering how good Barrett has been this season, but I’m not really nervous about the Ohio State QB position. Going back in my memory, I really can’t remember a QB in the Urban Meyer system ever being bad. I mean do we all forget how good Kenny Guiton was last year? The system works. Ohio State is significantly better than Wisconsin, and should be able to win this.

BOISE STATE (-22) over Fresno State

Fresno State stinks. They went 6-6 on the season, and lost to anyone good they played. Boise State already beat Fresno State once (by 10) on the blue field. And that was the second closest loss for Fresno. Nebraska beat them by 37, Utah by 32, USC by 39. Fresno can’t beat good teams, and it was probably a fluke that they came within 10 the first time they played Boise State. Give the points.

Big Country

Friday, December 5, 2015