Beat The Spread: Week 14

It’s rivalry week baby!! One of the most exciting weeks of college football. Since this is the last full week of college football, I got a special treat for you. Instead of the typical 6-8 games per week, I’m giving you guys 10 picks for this Saturday. For the 3 people who actually read this, I will continue to make picks directly on NOTBS at least till the bowl season. Once the bowl start, we probably will be looking at mostly twitter for picks, but we got time to figure that out. On Turkey Day I went 1 and 1, giving us a 44-49-1 record on the season, so I still haven’t hit my goal of breaking .500, but we still got time. So here are the picks, and like always, the home team is in caps.

Michigan (+21) over OHIO STATE

I know Michigan isn’t as good as expected this season, but I can’t see them getting blown out by Ohio State, despite Ohio State looking to impress the playoff committee. It’s tough to give 3 touchdowns, especially in a rivalry game, when Michigan needs to win this game in order to become bowl eligible. Ohio State may have been running teams off the field earlier in the season, but that isn’t the case as of late. Despite winning them all, Ohio State has allowed opponents to keep it within 21 point in 4 of their last 5, and Michigan has only lost by more than 21 twice this season. I think Ohio State wins this rather easily, but Michigan keeps it within 14-17.

BOSTON COLLEGE (-12) over Syracuse

Syracuse stinks right now. They have lost their last 4 games, and 8 of their last 9 games. They haven’t scored 20 points in a game since October 18th. With only 3 wins on the season, they aren’t playing for anything, and will probably come in flat. BC on the other hand is fighting for a better bowl, and trying to stop a 2 game losing streak. People like to joke about BC, but 3 of their 5 loses were to ranked teams, and they almost upset Florida State. I think after the tough loss last week they come out on fire and run all over Syracuse.

Utah (-9) over COLORADO

I know Utah has struggled as of late, dropping 3 of their last 4. But those were to all legit opponents (Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State). Utah has still beaten USC, Stanford and UCLA this season, and the loss to Arizona State was in overtime. They are still a good team with some good wins. Colorado on the other hand is not. They have lost 7 straight, and are 2-9 on the season. Looking back on those 9 losses, 6 were by double digit points. I have no reason to believe Utah can’t do the same thing. On a side note, I saw Colorado almost lose to UMASS in person this year. They are as bad as that record.

Baylor (-25) over Texas Tech (neutral site)

Normally I don’t like giving up huge points like this, especially when I did it with Baylor last week and it didn’t work, but this seems too easy to me. Texas Tech is 126th in the NCAA in defense, allowing just over 40 points per game. Baylor is 1st in the NCAA in scoring, putting up 50 points per game. That is just asking for a blowout. Baylor has no problem running up the score, beating opponent by over 30 points 5 separate times this season, and Texas Tech has lost by 20 or more points4 times this year. This should be a cake walk for Baylor.

Michigan State (-13) over PENN STATE

Because the Michigan State’s defense has been so good over the years, they don’t get the credit for their offensive capability. Did you know Michigan State is 6th in the nation is scoring? They have put up 35 or more points in 6 straight games. The Penn State defense has been very good this year, and should be able to slow down the Spartans, but I don’t think the Nittany Lions offense can keep up. Penn State has had 4 games this season where they have failed to break 14 points, and that’s not going to get it done this week.

FLORIDA STATE (-7.5) over Florida

This is a scary game for me, because Florida State just put up a stinker to BC. But that was FSU’s worst game of the season. Prior to the BC scare, FSU had put up 30 or more points in 7 straight wins, and should come out on fire after almost choking away their playoff hopes. Florida has looked good with Treon Harris under center, but the Seminoles are a different animal, and I think the double digit win is the most likely outcome.

Mississippi State (-3) over MISSISSIPPI

I really like Ole Miss a lot this season. I predicted them to upset Alabama, and was picking them way before the rest of the nation was BO-Lieving in the Rebels. Unfortunately for Mississippi, they are only going to go as far as Bo Wallace can take them, and with his bad ankle and the inability to get much going rushing, I don’t see Ol Miss keeping this under a touchdown.

USC (-7) over Notre Dame

The Irish have lost 3 straight and 4 of their last 5. I don’t necessarily think they have quit, but they definitely aren’t the same team we saw at the start of the season. Some of that is due to injury, some of it is just coming down to earth. Overall I think on the road at USC is just a bad matchup for the Irish. Kessler has had 19 Touchdown passes his last 5 games, and is really finding his grove. I think he

picks apart Notre Dame and leads the Trojans (who should be undefeated at home if it weren’t for a fluke Arizona State loss) to a two touchdown win.

KANSAS STATE (-28) over Kansas

Some people might look at Kansas State and think this is a trap game, with Baylor scheduled for next week. But I’m not buying it. Coach Snyder is too good of a coach for that. Kansas State is one of the hardest places to play in the country, and the Wildcats have a top 25 defense. Kansas on the other hand averages less than 19 points a game, and lost by 30 plus to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Duke. I will give the points.

ALABAMA (-9) over Auburn

At the start of the year, I thought that Auburn was going to slip. I thought they were a little lucky last year, and I didn’t really believe in Marshall as a QB. But then they beat Kansas State on the road, blew out LSU, and knocked off Ole Miss and I started to question my original theory. But after losses to Texas A&M and Georgia I’m starting to realize I was right all along. I think Alabama is significantly better, and with the game being played at Alabama I think the defense shuts down Marshall and wins this by double digits.

Big Country

Friday, November 28, 2014