Another college football week complete, and another week of going 4-4. I feel like that has been an ongoing theme of the beat the spread segment. We only have a few weeks left in the season, and I sit at 39-44-1. This week I have 9 games I really like. That’s right, I said 9!!! One of them is the Thursday night game, so depending on when I get this actually sent and it get posted you may miss it, but you should get the other 8 games for sure. So let’s caught to the chase and get to the games. As always, the home team is in caps.
Kansas State (+2) over WEST VIRGINIA
I am hard pressed to think of a time I wouldn’t take a Bill Snyder team as an underdog. In my opinion he’s the best coach in college football. His teams are almost always prepared, and very rarely does his team get run out of the opponents stadium. One of the rare occasions where that did happen was last week at TCU. Snyder is too good of a coach to allow that to happen in back to back weeks, especially to a WV team that has been overrated (by me included) thanks to a win over Baylor. That has been the Mountaineers only good win on the season, losing to every other good opponent they have faced. Skip the garbage Thursday Night NFL game, this will be much more entertaining as Kansas State wins straight up.
Boston College (+19) over FLORIDA STATE
On paper, this should be a blow out for Florida State. But the games aren’t played on paper, and there are a few intangible factors that have mean leaning towards BC keeping this close. The first is Florida State’s performance this season. Simply put, they aren’t the same team that won the National Championship last year. They have allowed teams like Virginia, NC State, and Syracuse all stay somewhat close, winning by less than 20 points in all those games. Boston College’s defense is better than all those teams. Secondly, last year Boston College gave FSU a scare, keeping the score closer than every other team FSU played in the regular season. And lastly, this is a bit of a trap for FSU. They have Florida next week to end the season in a rivalry game, I wouldn’t be shocked if they look past BC. This game will be a lot closer than people expect.
Mississippi (-3.5) over ARKANSAS
Arkansas might be the best 5-5 team in the history of college football. Even in there loses they look good, and you could argue they should be 7-3 or
even better this season. So why am I taking Ol Miss, who hasn’t had a quality win in over a month? I think we see a let down from Arkansas. They just had the biggest win of their season, and there is bound to be some emotional letdown. Ol Miss has the best defense in college football, and I think they can stifle the Arkansas offense and grind out a 7 point win.
Louisville (+3.5) over NOTRE DAME
Notre Dame was a suspect penalty away from knocking off the National Champion Seminoles and starting the season 7-0. Instead they are a team that has dropped 3 of their last 4, with 2 games left against ranked opponents. I think they end up dropping their 3rd in a row when the go head to head with Louisville. The Cardinals have a top 10 defense, and has had 3 straight games in which they have
scored 30+ points. Notre Dame on the other hand hasn’t held an opponent to under 30 since 10/4/14 against Stanford. I think Louisville wins this one with ease.
UTAH (-4) over Arizona
I don’t think Arizona is a very good football team, despite their 8-2 record. And yes, I recognize they beat Oregon, but that was a Thursday night game, where weird stuff tends to happen. Look at some of their wins this year. They only beat UTSA by 3. They only beat Nevada by 7. They were only able to beat Cal by 4. And last week they squeaked out a 1 point win over a decent at best Washington team. My point is these aren’t world beaters. Utah has a handful of big wins, beating UCLA, Stanford, and USC, and took Arizona State to OT. I think Utah is the superior team and I don’t think Arizona will have an answer for Devontae Booker.
Missouri (+3.5) over TENNESSEE
Who would have thought the Missouri Tigers would be this good? Oh wait, I did. Now I didn’t think they would be first in the SEC East, but I didn’t put them as a contender for it. They have won 4 straight since being shut out by Georgia, thanks to the 16th ranked defense in the country. Last week they held the impressive Texas A&M offense to under 30 points, something that Mississippi State and Auburn couldn’t do, so they shouldn’t have too much trouble with a hit or miss Volunteer offense. I’d be a little more confident if Tennessee still had Worley at QB rather than Joshua Dobbs, but I still like the Tigers in this one.
BAYLOR (-28) over Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State has lost 4 straight games, all by 3 touchdowns or more, and 3 by over 30 points. Now news comes out that starting QB Dax Garman is most likely out with a concussion, most likely elevating freshman Mason Rudolph to start. This team was already losing games by 30, now you are asking a true freshman to make his first career start on the road versus Baylor. A Baylor team that averages over 50 points a game, and has the best home field advantage in the Big 12. A Baylor team that is still on the outside looking in for the college playoff, and needs to make a statement to the selection committee. No lie, I would take Baylor at -40.
University of Southern California (+3.5) over UCLA
In what is, at least in my opinion, the game of the week, USC and UCLA will battle for first place in the PAC-12 South. I’m picking USC for the upset win. Cody Kessler is having a very underrated season under center for the Trojans, and should be able to pick apart a suspect UCLA defense that is only ranked 79th in the country. They have allowed many lesser opponents to keep it close all season, and USC is the best team they have faced on the season besides Oregon.
So those are my picks. Follow me on Twitter @michaelrooney26 for other picks, in all sports, throughout the season.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
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