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Beat The Spread: Week 12

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So close.  I was so close to getting back over that .500 mark.  I was hovering around it for weeks, and even above it for a minute, but last week really put me behind he 8 ball.  Then last week I go 2-6.  So frustrating.  And what made it worst was how close I was in two of the games.  Penn State won by 6, I needed 7.  Michigan won by 1, needed them to win by 1.5.  But close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and now I'm 35-40-1.  We don't have many weeks left to make up the difference, but here goes nothing.  As always, home team is in caps.


Nebraska (+6.5) over WISCONSIN


This probably isn't a popular opinion, but I think that Nebraska might be the best team in the Big 10.  Ameer Abdullah is probably the best RB in the country right now, averaging 6.7 yards per carry, and Tommy Armstrong Jr is averaging over 6 yards per carry as well.  They are averaging over 40 points per game, 10th in the nation, and have only lost once, and that was by 5 AT Michigan State.  I understand they are facing a tough Wisconsin defense, but Nebraska is the best team they have faced to date.  The Badgers have had awful QB play on the season, and I think Nebraska can shut down the their run game.


Clemson -3 over GEORGIA TECH


The Clemson Tigers have won 6 straight since losing to Florida State in overtime back in September.  The defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points since the end of September, and have the 12th best defense in the country.  Georgia Tech can certainly run the ball, averaging over 300 rushing yards per game, but have a suspect defense.  Like Wisconsin above, I think they are too one dimensional to beat Clemson.


FLORIDA (+7) over South Carolina


Florida has come a long way since the start of the season.  They may not have the best offense in the world, but they were able to put up big points against Georgia and Vanderbilt in back to back weeks (38 and 34 respectively).  They also came within 3 to LSU 4 games ago.  They are facing a South Carolina team that is allowing over 34 points a game, ranked 107th in the nation.  They just gave up 45 points to a Tennessee team that had only scored over 20 two other times this season (and once was to Chattanooga).  I like the Gators straight up in this one.


Auburn (+2) over GEORGIA


Let me get this straight... Auburn is GETTING points?  This same team that beat Ole Miss on the road 2 weeks ago?  I understand they just lost to Texas A&M, but I'm going to assume that Auburn was looking ahead to this game.  Georgia let up over 30 points to Kentucky last week, following being upset by Florida 2 weeks ago.  This spread makes zero sense to me, but I will take advantage of it as long as it's out there.


Texas (-3) over OKLAHOMA STATE


It's been a tough stretch for Oklahoma State as of late.  They have lost their last 3 games, and the rest of the schedule isn't much better.  I'm not a huge fan of Texas, but they did just upset West Virginia,  and put up over 30 points on Texas Tech.  If they can even get a decent performance out of Swoopes the defense should be able to do enough to get the win.


Mississippi State (+8.5) over ALABAMA


This is another spread that makes no sense to me.  The #1 team in the country is GETTING 8.5 points?  I understand the Alabama defense is great, but the offense is just average.  They may have only one loss, but they have had some close encounters.  They only beat Arkansas by 1, and needed OT to beat LSU.  Expecting them to beat Mississippi State by over a touchdown doesn't seem realistic.


Louisiana State University (-1) over ARKANSAS


I actually like Arkansas as a team.  I think they are moving in the right direction.  But a 1 point spread just isn't enough to take them.  I think LSU is just the better team, and although Arkansas has played the top teams in the conference tight, I can't pick them to beat LSU until I see them beat a top team.


Florida State (-3) over Miama


Yet another spread that makes no sense to me.  The Hurricanes are a good football team, but I don't consider them a top team.  They lost by 19 to Louisville, 11 to Georgia Tech, and 10 to Nebraska.  Why would we expect them to keep FSU within 3 when nobody has since the National Championship


 

Big Country

Friday, November 14, 2014 



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