Last week I was hoping to get back over the .500 mark. The bad news is it didn’t happen. But there was some good news, as I didn’t lose any ground. That’s right, your Boy Big country put up a 4-4 record against the spread, keeping me 1 game below .500 (although in percentage points technically I’m hitting at a higher percent, so at least there is that). This week I got 8 games I like, so let’s check them out. As always, the home team is in caps.
Baylor (+5.5) over OKLAHOMA
I know that Oklahoma bounced back with a big win over Iowa State, but who HASN’T beat Iowa State this year. Iowa State is 2-6 and letting up over 38 points a game. The three games prior to that, Oklahoma went 1-2, losing to TCU and Kansas State. The win wasn’t too impressive either, only beating Texas by 5. Baylor beat that same Texas team by 21 the week prior, beat TCU, and besides a bad game against WV has been impressive all season. Outside of Iowa State (90th in NCAA in scoring), Oklahoma hasn’t held an opponent to 25 or under since September 13th, and Baylor is the number one scoring offense in the nation. And you are going to spot them 5.5 points? No brainer here, take Baylor.
Penn State (-7) over INDIANA
This is a battle of two struggling programs. Combined these two schools have gone 1-7 their last 4 games, so both are desperate for a win, especially if they have bowl aspirations. The difference between the two schools is the Penn State loses are generally respectable (besides getting trounced by Northwestern). They lost to Michigan by 5 in a rivalry game, lost too Ohio State in double overtime, and lost to Maryland by 1. This team could easily be 6-2 or 7-1 on the season. Indiana on the other hand? Not so much. Maryland beat them by 22. Iowa beat them by 16. Michigan State smoked them, beating them by 39. And the struggling Michigan offense put up 34 points in a 24 point victory. Just looking at those games, and common opponents, this is a slam dunk in favor of the Nittany Lions.
Michigan (-1.5) over NORTHWESTERN
I understand Michigan is having a down year, but this is NOT a good Northwestern team. I understand they were able to upset a struggling Wisconsin team, and a Penn State team that I can only assume was looking ahead, but they have lost their last 3. They haven’t been able to put up over 20 points since the end of September, and haven’t reached 30 points in a game all season. Michigan has won 2 of their last 3, and despite how bad this season has gone, is simply a more talented roster. In what is essentially a pick em, I’m going with the team that is genuinely better.
West Virginia (-3.5) over TEXAS
Let’s just take a minute to go over Texas’ 4 wins this season. They beat North Texas (2-6), Kansas
(2-6), Iowa State (2-6), and Texas Tech (3-6). They beat up on bad teams. They have lost every game against a good opponent. And West Virginia is a good opponent. They beat Baylor, they beat Oklahoma State, and lost to TCU by 1 last week. Not sure how Texas is expected to keep this game within 3.5. Doesn’t really need more breakdown than that.
Notre Dame (+2.5) over ARIZONA STATE
Arizona State is probably the biggest fraud team in the country. That 7-1 record is a total sham. UCLA beat them by 35 points. They beat USC by 4, but USC is also a fraud team. And they need OT to beat a Utah team that had just lost its top WR. Notre Dame on the other hand was one questionable penalty away from beating the reigning national champions. I’m a little concerned about how much the defense has slipped the last few games, but you can count some of that too looking ahead to FSU and ASU. I think they get back on track this week, and run the table to a playoff berth.
BOSTON COLLEGE (+3) over Louisville
This is probably the homer in me, but I think that BC takes this one. Louisville’s offense straight up quit against FSU, and although BC isn’t one of the best defenses in the country, they are certainly a good defense. This isn’t a typical Bobby Petrino offense. They have been very hit or miss offensively. More importantly, I think BC will be able to run the ball on Louisville, who will be without DT PioVatuvi. BC has really been clicking as of late, getting out to early leads. If they can do that this week they may be golden, and looking at 7 wins and momentum going into a meeting with FSU.
Kansas State (+6) over Tcu
I was on the fence about this game when I first saw it. On one hand, TCU probably should have lost to WV. But TCU is still at home, and still the number 2 offense in all of college football. But I read a statistic that swayed me to Kansas State. The last 12 times Kansas State has been a road dog, they have gone 11-1 against the spread. That tells me that Coach Snyder gets him boys ready, and they show up prepared. I’m going to go with history and the most underrated coach in college football, as well as the 6 points.
Oregon (-8.5) over UTAH
Wow, just realized I went really heavy on the road team. But of all the games I took, this is probably the one I am most confident about. Since being upset by Arizona (on a short week, it was a Thursday night game), Oregon has been rolling, beating everyone they have faced by double digits. The O-line is playing well and healthy again, and the offense has put up 40+ in all 4 wins since the upset. Utah is a good story, and a good team, but they are a team that keeps squeaking bye. With their top WR out, I don’t see how they can keep up with the Oregon offense.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
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