Well that was short lived.  It was a glorious week, but your boy Big Country is back under that .500 mark after a 2-4 performance last week.   I’m down, but at 29-30-1 I’m certainly not out.  And with 8 games that I like this week, I got a feeling I’m going to be back over that hump in no time.  So let’s cut the chit chat and get right to this week’s games.  As always, the home team in in caps.

East Carolina (-7.5) over TEMPLE

Okay, I know that East Carolina let Connecticut hang around a bit last week, but this line doesn’t make any sense to me.  East Carolina has won by 10 or more points in 5 of their 6 games, and can score at will when they are rolling.  Temple on the other hand just lost by 20 to UCF, and 21 the week before to Houston.  I’m choosing to believe East Carolina didn’t take the Huskies to serous last week, and win this one by double digits against an inferior team.

Duke (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH

 

I don’t know why Vegas is still sleeping on Duke after last year’s success and this season’s 6-1 start, but I’m happy to take advantage.  This is a defense that is allowing 15.1 points per game, good for 5th in the nation.  Pitt on the other hand hasn’t broken 30 points since September 13th, and really hasn’t looked that impressive since beating BC.  The Panthers have dropped 4 of their last 5, and even at home there is no way that they should be favored, let alone giving the hook at 3.5.

Boston College (+3) over VIRGINIA TECH

This is not the same Virginia Tech team that upset Ohio State it’s second game of the season.  After starting out 4-2, the Hokie’s offense has been struggling lately, only putting up 6 and 16 it’s last two games (to Miami and Pitt respectively).  It looks like Michael Brewer is on a short leash at QB, which can’t help the kid’s confidence.  They are running into a Boston College defense that has been playing really well lately.  Ranked 13th in the nation in points per game, the Eagles haven’t allowed more than 21 points to an opponent since September 13th, and less than 20 the last 3.  Look for BC to keep the Hokies offense in check and pick up the win.

WEST VIRGINIA (+6) over Tcu

This game makes me a little nervous.  TCU has the highest scoring offense in football, and has been on a roll as of late, putting up 30 or more every game this season, and over 40 the last 3.  But Morgantown is a sneaky tough place to play, and the Mountaineers just held Baylor to under 30 there 2 weeks ago.  I don’t know if WV can win the game, but they should be able to throw on the Horned Frogs and keep it close.  On a side not, who would have thought WV would be Alabama’s best win this late in the season?

Stanford (+8) over OREGON

On paper this game appears to be a lock for the Ducks.  Oregon has the 5th best offense in terms of PPG, and Stanford can’t score.  The offense is abysmal.  But Stanford still has one of the best defenses in the game, ranked 2nd in regards to points, and has a past success against Mariota and the Ducks, beating them the last 2 years.  Last year the Cardinals defense was able to keep the Oregon offense off the scoreboard till the 4th quarter, only allowing 20 points.  Mariota had a QBR of 49.6.  The year before?  Only 14 points for the Ducks, and a QBR of 45.1 for Mariota.  If Stanford had and real offensive talent I’d call for the upset, but I’ll have to settle for the cover.  

Notre Dame (-14) over NAVY

I feel like Navy is just walking into a disaster.  The Notre Dame defense is legit, and they were off last week.  I don’t care how good the Navy option game is, you give a top tier defense 2 weeks to get ready for it they should be able to slow it down, if not stop it.  And secondly, you know that Notre Dame is going to be HEATED about their ranking by the playoff committee (and rightfully so).  They are going to come out and send a message to the committee that they deserve to be in the playoff.  They may win by 30 this week over an overmatched Navy team.

KANSAS STATE (-14.5) over Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State is not a good football team, I don’t care what the record says.  They started 5-1, with the only loss being to FSU, so people thought they were a good team.  What they failed to realize is FSU is not the same team as last year, and the 5 wins they have are to Missouri State, UTSA, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Kansas.  Not exactly the SEC West there.  The lost by 33 to TCU and 24 to West Virginia.  I can’t see them heading to Manhattan Kansas and staying within 2 touchdowns of Kansas State.

ARIZONA STATE  (-5) over Utah

I really like the Utes.  I think that Booker is a beast, and I enjoy watching them play.  But they are a very one dimensional team, passing for less than 200 yards per game this season.  Their big wins this season, UCLA and USC, are both teams that I think are very overrated.  Now that Taylor Kelly is back and healthy for AZ State, I don’t think the Utes can keep up.

Big Country

Friday, October 31, 2014