Sunday 3pm ESPN

What a fitting track to visit for the two points leaders. Kenseth and Johnson currently hold the top two best average finishes amongst active guys at Texas and have four wins between them. Johnson will start from 3rd and Kenseth from 6th when they take the green flag on Sunday afternoon. Not to mention the guy with the most career wins at this place is sitting on the pole. This should be a great race.

This 1.5 mile oval makes for some great high speed green flag racing. While we shall see some wrecks we will see more great racing than at most tracks.

Best Bets

Jimmie Johnson 3-1

Matt Kenseth 4-1

The perfect track to watch these two battle this championship out. Kenseth has accumulated more top 5’s, top 10’s, and more laps lead than anyone ever at this track. He also has the edge on Johnson in average finish. But none of that will matter tomorrow because Johnson is battle tested and ahead of Kenseth on the starting grid. You can count on seeing both of these guys lead a lap at some point, while riding around up front all day.

Best Value Bets

Carl Edwards 20-1

Carl should be insulted by this. He has more wins at Texas than anyone ever and he has earned pole position for this race, yet he is 20-1 to win this thing. He has won twice this year so it’s not like he has to get some huge monkey off his back. Carl should be racing pissed off for all 501 miles.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20-1

Dale is almost a lock to finish right around the top 10. He has finished 7th each of the past two years in this race and is starting in 7th place this time around. He has tallied 12 top 10’s in his 22 starts and is inside the top 10 in average finish among active drivers. And for those of you concerned with if he can actually win here, he has already accomplished that in his very first race here back in 2000.

Greg Biffle 20-1

The Biff is really underrated here. He is a two time winner at Texas and seemed to always be running up front with Matt Kenseth, back when they were teammates. 20-1 is a bargain for the guy with an average finish of 4.8 in his past five races at Texas (tops in NASCAR).  

Jeff Burton 100-1

I’m riding this guy again at Texas. Sure he didn’t win last week, but he lead in the later stages of the race before finishing in 11th. A win would have been great, but what do you expect out of a 100-1 shot? This week he should give you another opportunity and provide some fun for you. He is a two time winner here and he is looking for a job for next season. Expect him to be around late again this week.

My Pick

Brad Keselowski 12-1

Brad hasn’t been historically great at this track, but he has been fast as hell this week. He was fastest in final practice and fastest in the Nationwide race that he won. He will roll off second and should be a factor in this thing. I think he’s going to win it.

mlz

Saturday, November 2, 2013