After taking on a second job and another job mowing a lawn it’s been a while since I have been able to do one of these. But this week I carved out some time as we head to this two mile D shaped oval that is Michigan International Speedway. This is a fast track that showcases some hard nosed racing and it should make for a great run come Sunday.

 

Stay Away From

Jimmie Johnson 7-1

A rare appearance for the six time champ under the “Stay Away From” heading. Jimmie has just found all sorts of bad luck at this track. Michigan is one of just five tracks that he has never won at. But it has not been for a lack of a fast car. Between fuel mileage, blown tires and engine failures he has just been snake bitten at this track. Granted that will make him want to win here that much more, there is just no way you can put money on him at 7-1.

Brad Keselowski 8-1

On the surface this feels like a track that Brad should be good at, however the stats say otherwise. In nine career starts he holds an average finish of just 16.89 which includes just two top 10’s and four finishes outside the top 20. He may one day win at this track, but I won’t be betting him at just 8-1 odds.

Best Bets

Denny Hamlin 15-1

Denny is a two time winner here that has struggled a bit since his last win here in June of 2011. But both of his wins came in the June race and since his last win he has had some bad luck that he couldn’t have necessarily avoided. Despite recent struggles at this track he still holds an average finish of 15th which is pretty damn good.

Carl Edwards 15-1

Wait so I can get a driver that has already won this season and has two career wins at Michigan to go along with the best average finish among active drivers at Michigan with an 8.32 at 15-1? Thank you very much.

Greg Biffle 15-1

Any guesses as to how well Greg Biffle has run at Michigan the last two years? Well if you said he holds an average finish of 3.75 with two wins in four races, then you nailed it. Wait why is he 15-1?

Best Value Bets

Clint Bowyer 25-1

While Bowyer doesn’t have a win he can brag about here, he has the second best average finish in the last two years here at 6.5. He has run really well here throughout his career and 25-1 is damn good value for a guy like that even if he doesn’t find victory lane all that often.

Martin Truex Jr 60-1

Truex is far overdue for a good run. This is a track he has found some success at in the past. Last year in this race he finished 3rd and this year he looks to build off of that run albeit with a new team. They are still looking for their first real good run of this season and this week should be a race they can build off of for the rest of the 2014 season.

Paul Menard 100-1

Paul Menard has had a really good season fly under the radar for him thus far this season. Now he comes to a track where he has a top 10 average finish in the past four trips to Michigan and he sits at 100-1? Menard should be right around the top 10 for the majority of the race and with that kind of value you are getting well more than your money’s worth.

Marcos Ambrose 200-1

Speaking of getting your money’s worth, Marcos has posted three top 10’s in his last four trips to Michigan. 200-1 odds on Marcos winning might give you the most value of anyone in the field this week.

My Pick

Matt Kenseth 10-1

It is time for Kenseth to grab that first win. He has been exceptional this season yet all everyone keeps talking about is how he still hasn’t won a race. This is the week he gets it done and at 10-1 you are getting incredible value for a guy that has just two finishes outside the top 13 this season and has an average finish of 9.62 at Michigan which is good for second among active drivers. This is the week he gets the monkey off his back and gets back into the win column.

mlz

Thursday, June 12, 2014