Mmmm back in thunder valley. Bristol Motor Speedway, the first short track of the year. People liken it to wrestling with cars. It is one of the more interesting statistical tracks and one of the most fun to watch and to try and learn.

This is one of those tracks that the big dogs seem to dominate. There aren't too many examples of surprising victories at this track. Typically the winner comes from someone who is making the Chase and has a chance to win the title. Some guys thrive here while other guys just can't seem to get the hang of it. For instance, Kyle Busch has won here five times out of sixteen career races here. Toss in eleven total top tens, the fact that he has only finished outside the top 20 three times and why not mention the fact that he will probably eclipse the 1400 marker for total laps led at this track.

Then there is Jeff Gordon also with five career wins but in 40 career races. But when you have lead over 2600 laps at one track I think you can call yourself an expert. Also with five career wins here is Kyle's brother Kurt in 24 career races, however Kurt only has six total top 5's.

I will probably catch some shit if I don't mention how good Dale Jr. has actually been here. He has only won once, but he is actually sandwiched between Kyle Busch (who is number 1) and Jeff Gordon (number 3) in average finish here amongst active drivers, though he has only one win here.

One guy to watch is the man coming off a birthday drive to victory lane, Matt Kenseth. He has the fourth best average finish here, including two victories. He also has been the second fastest in practice this week. Also of note, your reigning champ Brad Keselowski. Remember how I said some guys just naturally struggle here? Not Brad. Brad has two wins here in six career races and has been the fastest in practice this week.

The field is rather top heavy, there are five guys with single digit to one odds, with guys that can win as it always is. So lets see who the best bets are...

Best Bets

Matt Kenseth +1100

The single best bet on the board. He is the first one that jumped me. He is coming off a win on his birthday, and now enters a track where again he has won twice. He starts, 12^th, and if that was not enough for you he has finished 2^nd and 4^th in the last two of these races.

Jimmie Johnson +810

Good odds for ole five time. He obviously can win anywhere anytime. This team especially knows how to win here. He has just one win here but seven top 5's and 13 top 10's. He is going to be at least a top ten car with a chance when it comes down to it. Over 8-1 is great odds for the #48 team in any race on the planet.

The Great thing about a top heavy race like this one...great value bets...

Dale Jr +2550

Clint Bowyer +2550

Greg Biffle +2550

All three guys race great here. Maybe they have not reach victory lane as much as they would have liked to but they still have too good a track record for being over 25-1. If you don't bet at least something on these three guys you are just plain making a poor financial decision

Kurt Busch +6500

Remember when I said he's won here five times?

mlz

Saturday, March 16, 2013